Modeling, forecasting and trading the EUR exchange rates with hybrid rolling genetic algorithms: support vector regression forecast combinations

The motivation of this paper is to introduce a hybrid Rolling Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Regression (RG-SVR) model for optimal parameter selection and feature subset combination. The algorithm is applied to the task of forecasting and trading the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY exchange rates. The proposed methodology genetically searches over a feature space (pool of individual forecasts) and then combines the optimal feature subsets (SVR forecast combinations) for each exchange rate. This is achieved by applying a fitness function specialized for financial purposes and adopting a sliding window approach. The individual forecasts are derived from several linear and non-linear models. RG-SVR is benchmarked against genetically and non-genetically optimized SVRs and SVMs models that are dominating the relevant literature, along with the robust ARBF-PSO neural network. The statistical and trading performance of all models is investigated during the period of 1999–2012. As it turns out, RG-SVR presents the best performance in terms of statistical accuracy and trading efficiency for all the exchange rates under study. This superiority confirms the success of the implemented fitness function and training procedure, while it validates the benefits of the proposed algorithm

Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Enhanced Industrial Machinery Condition Monitoring Methodology based on Novelty Detection and Multi-Modal Analysis

This paper presents a condition-based monitoring methodology based on novelty detection applied to industrial machinery. The proposed approach includes both, the classical classification of multiple a priori known scenarios, and the innovative detection capability of new operating modes not previously available. The development of condition-based monitoring methodologies considering the isolation capabilities of unexpected scenarios represents, nowadays, a trending topic able to answer the demanding requirements of the future industrial processes monitoring systems. First, the method is based on the temporal segmentation of the available physical magnitudes, and the estimation of a set of time-based statistical features. Then, a double feature reduction stage based on Principal Component Analysis and Linear Discriminant Analysis is applied in order to optimize the classification and novelty detection performances. The posterior combination of a Feed-forward Neural Network and One-Class Support Vector Machine allows the proper interpretation of known and unknown operating conditions. The effectiveness of this novel condition monitoring scheme has been verified by experimental results obtained from an automotive industry machine.Postprint (published version

One-Class Classification: Taxonomy of Study and Review of Techniques

One-class classification (OCC) algorithms aim to build classification models when the negative class is either absent, poorly sampled or not well defined. This unique situation constrains the learning of efficient classifiers by defining class boundary just with the knowledge of positive class. The OCC problem has been considered and applied under many research themes, such as outlier/novelty detection and concept learning. In this paper we present a unified view of the general problem of OCC by presenting a taxonomy of study for OCC problems, which is based on the availability of training data, algorithms used and the application domains applied. We further delve into each of the categories of the proposed taxonomy and present a comprehensive literature review of the OCC algorithms, techniques and methodologies with a focus on their significance, limitations and applications. We conclude our paper by discussing some open research problems in the field of OCC and present our vision for future research.Comment: 24 pages + 11 pages of references, 8 figure

Optimized complex power quality classifier using one vs. rest support vector machine

Nowadays, power quality issues are becoming a significant research topic because of the increasing inclusion of very sensitive devices and considerable renewable energy sources. In general, most of the previous power quality classification techniques focused on single power quality events and did not include an optimal feature selection process. This paper presents a classification system that employs Wavelet Transform and the RMS profile to extract the main features of the measured waveforms containing either single or complex disturbances. A data mining process is designed to select the optimal set of features that better describes each disturbance present in the waveform. Support Vector Machine binary classifiers organized in a ?One Vs Rest? architecture are individually optimized to classify single and complex disturbances. The parameters that rule the performance of each binary classifier are also individually adjusted using a grid search algorithm that helps them achieve optimal performance. This specialized process significantly improves the total classification accuracy. Several single and complex disturbances were simulated in order to train and test the algorithm. The results show that the classifier is capable of identifying >99% of single disturbances and >97% of complex disturbances.Fil: de Yong, David Marcelo. Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Electricidad y Electrónica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; ArgentinaFil: Bhowmik, Sudipto. Nexant Inc; Estados UnidosFil: Magnago, Fernando. Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Electricidad y Electrónica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba; Argentin

Ensemble Committees for Stock Return Classification and Prediction

This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a non-linear support vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials, Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, Neukom Institute Computational Undergraduate Research prize - second plac