A time series causal model

Cause-effect relations are central in economic analysis. Uncovering empirical cause-effect relations is one of the main research activities of empirical economics. In this paper we develop a time series casual model to explore casual relations among economic time series. The time series causal model is grounded on the theory of inferred causation that is a probabilistic and graph-theoretic approach to causality featured with automated learning algorithms. Applying our model we are able to infer cause-effect relations that are implied by the observed time series data. The empirically inferred causal relations can then be used to test economic theoretical hypotheses, to provide evidence for formulation of theoretical hypotheses, and to carry out policy analysis. Time series causal models are closely related to the popular vector autoregressive (VAR) models in time series analysis. They can be viewed as restricted structural VAR models identified by the inferred causal relations.Inferred Causation, Automated Learning, VAR, Granger Causality, Wage-Price Spiral

Learning Timbre Analogies from Unlabelled Data by Multivariate Tree Regression

This is the Author's Original Manuscript of an article whose final and definitive form, the Version of Record, has been published in the Journal of New Music Research, November 2011, copyright Taylor & Francis. The published article is available online at http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/09298215.2011.596938

Pragmatic Ontology Evolution: Reconciling User Requirements and Application Performance

Increasingly, organizations are adopting ontologies to describe their large catalogues of items. These ontologies need to evolve regularly in response to changes in the domain and the emergence of new requirements. An important step of this process is the selection of candidate concepts to include in the new version of the ontology. This operation needs to take into account a variety of factors and in particular reconcile user requirements and application performance. Current ontology evolution methods focus either on ranking concepts according to their relevance or on preserving compatibility with existing applications. However, they do not take in consideration the impact of the ontology evolution process on the performance of computational tasks – e.g., in this work we focus on instance tagging, similarity computation, generation of recommendations, and data clustering. In this paper, we propose the Pragmatic Ontology Evolution (POE) framework, a novel approach for selecting from a group of candidates a set of concepts able to produce a new version of a given ontology that i) is consistent with the a set of user requirements (e.g., max number of concepts in the ontology), ii) is parametrised with respect to a number of dimensions (e.g., topological considerations), and iii) effectively supports relevant computational tasks. Our approach also supports users in navigating the space of possible solutions by showing how certain choices, such as limiting the number of concepts or privileging trendy concepts rather than historical ones, would reflect on the application performance. An evaluation of POE on the real-world scenario of the evolving Springer Nature taxonomy for editorial classification yielded excellent results, demonstrating a significant improvement over alternative approaches

Spatio-temporal learning with the online finite and infinite echo-state Gaussian processes

Successful biological systems adapt to change. In this paper, we are principally concerned with adaptive systems that operate in environments where data arrives sequentially and is multivariate in nature, for example, sensory streams in robotic systems. We contribute two reservoir inspired methods: 1) the online echostate Gaussian process (OESGP) and 2) its infinite variant, the online infinite echostate Gaussian process (OIESGP) Both algorithms are iterative fixed-budget methods that learn from noisy time series. In particular, the OESGP combines the echo-state network with Bayesian online learning for Gaussian processes. Extending this to infinite reservoirs yields the OIESGP, which uses a novel recursive kernel with automatic relevance determination that enables spatial and temporal feature weighting. When fused with stochastic natural gradient descent, the kernel hyperparameters are iteratively adapted to better model the target system. Furthermore, insights into the underlying system can be gleamed from inspection of the resulting hyperparameters. Experiments on noisy benchmark problems (one-step prediction and system identification) demonstrate that our methods yield high accuracies relative to state-of-the-art methods, and standard kernels with sliding windows, particularly on problems with irrelevant dimensions. In addition, we describe two case studies in robotic learning-by-demonstration involving the Nao humanoid robot and the Assistive Robot Transport for Youngsters (ARTY) smart wheelchair

A Partitioning Algorithm for Maximum Common Subgraph Problems

We introduce a new branch and bound algorithm for the maximum common subgraph and maximum common connected subgraph problems which is based around vertex labelling and partitioning. Our method in some ways resembles a traditional constraint programming approach, but uses a novel compact domain store and supporting inference algorithms which dramatically reduce the memory and computation requirements during search, and allow better dual viewpoint ordering heuristics to be calculated cheaply. Experiments show a speedup of more than an order of magnitude over the state of the art, and demonstrate that we can operate on much larger graphs without running out of memory

Comovements of Different Asset Classes During Market Stress

This paper assesses the linkages between the most important U.S.financial asset classes (stocks, bonds, T-bills and gold) during periods of financial turmoil. Our results have potentially important implications for strategic asset allocation and pension fund management. We use multivariate extreme value theory to estimate the exposure of one asset class to extreme movements in the other asset classes. By applying structural break tests to those measures we study to what extent linkages in extreme asset returns and volatilities are changing over time. Univariate results andch bivariate comovement results exhib significant breaks in the 1970s and 1980s corresponding to the turbulent times of e.g. the oil shocks, Volcker's presidency of the Fed or the stock market crash of 1987.Flight to quality, financial market distress, extreme value theory