Bayesian Networks and Sex-related Homicides

We present a statistical investigation on the domain of sex-related homicides. As general sociological and psychological theory on this specific type of crime is incomplete or even lacking, a data-driven approach is implemented. In detail, graphical modelling is applied to learn the dependency structure and several structure learning algorithms are combined to yield a skeleton corresponding to distinct Bayesian Networks. This graph is subsequently analysed and presents a distinction between an offender and a situation driven crime.Bayesian Networks, structure learning, offender profiling

Statistical foundations of ecological rationality

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of this rebuilding process is optimality. Once we view optimality as a formal implication of quantified uncertainty rather than an ecologically meaningful objective, the rationality question shifts from being axiomatic/probabilistic in nature to being algorithmic/predictive in nature. These distinct views on rationality mirror fundamental and long-standing divisions in statistics

CRIME RATE PREDICTION USING THE RANDOM FOREST ALGORITHM

  An act that creates crimes punishable by law is characterized as a crime. Rape, fraud, terrorism, kidnapping, burglary, murder, and other crimes are common in Nigeria. Examples are cybercrime, bribery and corruption, robbery, money laundering, among other crimes. Crime is a harmful and widespread social issue that affects individuals all around the world. The rate of crime has risen dramatically in recent years. To cut down on crime, at any rate, law enforcements must take preventative actions. To protect society against crime, modern systems and new technologies are required. Although accurate real-time crime study is on aid in reducing crime rates, they are nonetheless useless. As crime occurrences are dependent on, this is a difficult subject for the scientific community to solve. Therefore, this paper proposes machine learning algorithm to indicate the frequency and pattern of crimes based on the data collected and to show the extent of crime in a particular region. Various visualization approaches and machine learning algorithms are used in this study to anticipate the crime distribution over a large area. In the first stage, raw datasets were processed and visualized according to the requirements. Then, to extract knowledge from these massive datasets, machine learning methods were deployed and uncover hidden patterns in the data, which were then utilized to investigate and report on crime patterns, It is beneficial to crime analysts. Investigate these crime networks using a variety of interactive crime visualizations. As a result, it is helpful in crime prevention

A Geo-Statistical Approach for Crime hot spot Prediction

Crime hot spot prediction is a challenging task in present time. Effective models are needed which are capable of dealing with large amount of crime dataset and prediction of future crime location. Spatio-temporal data mining are very much useful for dealing with the geographical crime data. In this paper sparse matrix analysis based spatial clustering technique for serial crime prediction model is used. Firstly, crime data are preprocessed through various distribution techniques and then sparse matrix analysis based spatial clustering technique are applied on a four years time series data from 2010 to 2014 for the major cities of India like Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai to find out the hotspot location for next year, after that three clustering techniques are used to grouping similar crime incident, at last cluster results obtained by original and proposed dataset are compared. The main objective of this research is applying crime prediction technique, forecast and detect the future crime location and its probability

Archetypes of Wildfire Arsonists: An Approach by Using Bayesian Networks

Wildfires are a phenomenon of great importance because of their environmental and economic consequences, as well as the human losses they cause. The rate of resolution of arson-caused wildfires is extremely low when compared to other criminal activities. This fact highlights the importance of developing methodologies to assist investigators in the criminal profiling. For that we propose the use of Bayesian networks (BNs), which are a methodology belonging to the field of machine learning. BNs are probabilistic models that have only recently been applied to criminal profiling.We learn a BN model from real data of solved arson-caused wildfires in Spain, and after validation we use it to construct archetypes of the forest fires/arsonists with the aim of better understanding of this phenomenon and help in the task of identification of the culprits. We characterize five different archetypes around author motivation from a quantitative and objective point of view, which are in correspondence with the modes of operation in criminal activities of Shye

Ubiquitous intelligence for smart cities: a public safety approach

Citizen-centered safety enhancement is an integral component of public safety and a top priority for decision makers in a smart city development. However, public safety agencies are constantly faced with the challenge of deterring crime. While most smart city initiatives have placed emphasis on the use of modern technology for fighting crime, this may not be sufficient to achieve a sustainable safe and smart city in a resource constrained environment, such as in Africa. In particular, crime series which is a set of crimes considered to have been committed by the same offender is currently less explored in developing nations and has great potential in helping to fight against crime and promoting safety in smart cities. This research focuses on detecting the situation of crime through data mining approaches that can be used to promote citizens' safety, and assist security agencies in knowledge-driven decision support, such as crime series identification. While much research has been conducted on crime hotspots, not enough has been done in the area of identifying crime series. This thesis presents a novel crime clustering model, CriClust, for crime series pattern (CSP) detection and mapping to derive useful knowledge from a crime dataset, drawing on sound scientific and mathematical principles, as well as assumptions from theories of environmental criminology. The analysis is augmented using a dual-threshold model, and pattern prevalence information is encoded in similarity graphs. Clusters are identified by finding highly-connected subgraphs using adaptive graph size and Monte-Carlo heuristics in the Karger-Stein mincut algorithm. We introduce two new interest measures: (i) Proportion Difference Evaluation (PDE), which reveals the propagation effect of a series and dominant series; and (ii) Pattern Space Enumeration (PSE), which reveals underlying strong correlations and defining features for a series. Our findings on experimental quasi-real data set, generated based on expert knowledge recommendation, reveal that identifying CSP and statistically interpretable patterns could contribute significantly to strengthening public safety service delivery in a smart city development. Evaluation was conducted to investigate: (i) the reliability of the model in identifying all inherent series in a crime dataset; (ii) the scalability of the model with varying crime records volume; and (iii) unique features of the model compared to competing baseline algorithms and related research. It was found that Monte Carlo technique and adaptive graph size mechanism for crime similarity clustering yield substantial improvement. The study also found that proportion estimation (PDE) and PSE of series clusters can provide valuable insight into crime deterrence strategies. Furthermore, visual enhancement of clusters using graphical approaches to organising information and presenting a unified viable view promotes a prompt identification of important areas demanding attention. Our model particularly attempts to preserve desirable and robust statistical properties. This research presents considerable empirical evidence that the proposed crime cluster (CriClust) model is promising and can assist in deriving useful crime pattern knowledge, contributing knowledge services for public safety authorities and intelligence gathering organisations in developing nations, thereby promoting a sustainable "safe and smart" city