Incremental learning of abnormalities in autonomous systems

In autonomous systems, self-awareness capabilities are useful to allow artificial agents to detect abnormal situations based on previous experiences. This paper presents a method that facilitates the incremental learning of new models by an agent. Available learned models can dynamically generate probabilistic predictions as well as evaluate their mismatch from current observations. Observed mismatches are grouped through an unsupervised learning strategy into different classes, each of them corresponding to a dynamic model in a given region of the state space. Such clusters define switching Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) employed for predicting future instances and detect anomalies. Inferences generated by several DBNs that use different sensorial data are compared quantitatively. For testing the proposed approach, it is considered the multi-sensorial data generated by a robot performing various tasks in a controlled environment and a real autonomous vehicle moving at a University Campus

Bayesian regularization of non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks by globally coupling interaction parameters

To relax the homogeneity assumption of classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), various recent studies have combined DBNs with multiple changepoint processes. The underlying assumption is that the parameters associated with time series segments delimited by multiple changepoints are a priori independent. Under weak regularity conditions, the parameters can be integrated out in the likelihood, leading to a closed-form expression of the marginal likelihood. However, the assumption of prior independence is unrealistic in many real-world applications, where the segment-specific regulatory relationships among the interdependent quantities tend to undergo gradual evolutionary adaptations. We therefore propose a Bayesian coupling scheme to introduce systematic information sharing among the segment-specific interaction parameters. We investigate the effect this model improvement has on the network reconstruction accuracy in a reverse engineering context, where the objective is to learn the structure of a gene regulatory network from temporal gene expression profiles

Feature Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Feature Markov Decision Processes (PhiMDPs) are well-suited for learning agents in general environments. Nevertheless, unstructured (Phi)MDPs are limited to relatively simple environments. Structured MDPs like Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are used for large-scale real-world problems. In this article I extend PhiMDP to PhiDBN. The primary contribution is to derive a cost criterion that allows to automatically extract the most relevant features from the environment, leading to the "best" DBN representation. I discuss all building blocks required for a complete general learning algorithm.Comment: 7 page

Dynamic Bayesian networks in molecular plant science: inferring gene regulatory networks from multiple gene expression time series

To understand the processes of growth and biomass production in plants, we ultimately need to elucidate the structure of the underlying regulatory networks at the molecular level. The advent of high-throughput postgenomic technologies has spurred substantial interest in reverse engineering these networks from data, and several techniques from machine learning and multivariate statistics have recently been proposed. The present article discusses the problem of inferring gene regulatory networks from gene expression time series, and we focus our exposition on the methodology of Bayesian networks. We describe dynamic Bayesian networks and explain their advantages over other statistical methods. We introduce a novel information sharing scheme, which allows us to infer gene regulatory networks from multiple sources of gene expression data more accurately. We illustrate and test this method on a set of synthetic data, using three different measures to quantify the network reconstruction accuracy. The main application of our method is related to the problem of circadian regulation in plants, where we aim to reconstruct the regulatory networks of nine circadian genes in Arabidopsis thaliana from four gene expression time series obtained under different experimental conditions

Improvements in the reconstruction of time-varying gene regulatory networks: dynamic programming and regularization by information sharing among genes

<b>Method:</b> Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) have been applied widely to reconstruct the structure of regulatory processes from time series data, and they have established themselves as a standard modelling tool in computational systems biology. The conventional approach is based on the assumption of a homogeneous Markov chain, and many recent research efforts have focused on relaxing this restriction. An approach that enjoys particular popularity is based on a combination of a DBN with a multiple changepoint process, and the application of a Bayesian inference scheme via reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). In the present article, we expand this approach in two ways. First, we show that a dynamic programming scheme allows the changepoints to be sampled from the correct conditional distribution, which results in improved convergence over RJMCMC. Second, we introduce a novel Bayesian clustering and information sharing scheme among nodes, which provides a mechanism for automatic model complexity tuning. <b>Results:</b> We evaluate the dynamic programming scheme on expression time series for Arabidopsis thaliana genes involved in circadian regulation. In a simulation study we demonstrate that the regularization scheme improves the network reconstruction accuracy over that obtained with recently proposed inhomogeneous DBNs. For gene expression profiles from a synthetically designed Saccharomyces cerevisiae strain under switching carbon metabolism we show that the combination of both: dynamic programming and regularization yields an inference procedure that outperforms two alternative established network reconstruction methods from the biology literature

A Bayesian network approach to explaining time series with changing structure

Many examples exist of multivariate time series where dependencies between variables change over time. If these changing dependencies are not taken into account, any model that is learnt from the data will average over the different dependency structures. Paradigms that try to explain underlying processes and observed events in multivariate time series must explicitly model these changes in order to allow non-experts to analyse and understand such data. In this paper we have developed a method for generating explanations in multivariate time series that takes into account changing dependency structure. We make use of a dynamic Bayesian network model with hidden nodes. We introduce a representa- tion and search technique for learning such models from data and test it on synthetic time series and real-world data from an oil refinery, both of which contain changing underlying structure. We compare our method to an existing EM-based method for learning structure. Results are very promising for our method and we include sample explanations, generated from models learnt from the refinery dataset

Diagnostics and prognostics utilising dynamic Bayesian networks applied to a wind turbine gearbox

The UK has the largest installed capacity of offshore wind and this is set to increase significantly in future years. The difficulty in conducting maintenance offshore leads to increased operation and maintenance costs compared to onshore but with better condition monitoring and preventative maintenance strategies these costs could be reduced. In this paper an on-line condition monitoring system is created that is capable of diagnosing machine component conditions based on an array of sensor readings. It then informs the operator of actions required. This simplifies the role of the operator and the actions required can be optimised within the program to minimise costs. The program has been applied to a gearbox oil testbed to demonstrate its operational suitability. In addition a method for determining the most cost effective maintenance strategy is examined. This method uses a Dynamic Bayesian Network to simulate the degradation of wind turbine components, effectively acting as a prognostics tool, and calculates the cost of various preventative maintenance strategies compared to purely corrective maintenance actions. These methods are shown to reduce the cost of operating wind turbines in the offshore environment