Modeling Epidemic Spread in Synthetic Populations - Virtual Plagues in Massively Multiplayer Online Games

A virtual plague is a process in which a behavior-affecting property spreads among characters in a Massively Multiplayer Online Game (MMOG). The MMOG individuals constitute a synthetic population, and the game can be seen as a form of interactive executable model for studying disease spread, albeit of a very special kind. To a game developer maintaining an MMOG, recognizing, monitoring, and ultimately controlling a virtual plague is important, regardless of how it was initiated. The prospect of using tools, methods and theory from the field of epidemiology to do this seems natural and appealing. We will address the feasibility of such a prospect, first by considering some basic measures used in epidemiology, then by pointing out the differences between real world epidemics and virtual plagues. We also suggest directions for MMOG developer control through epidemiological modeling. Our aim is understanding the properties of virtual plagues, rather than trying to eliminate them or mitigate their effects, as would be in the case of real infectious disease.Comment: Accepted for presentation at Digital Games Research Association (DiGRA) conference in Tokyo in September 2007. All comments to the authors (mail addresses are in the paper) are welcom

Epidemic Thresholds with External Agents

We study the effect of external infection sources on phase transitions in epidemic processes. In particular, we consider an epidemic spreading on a network via the SIS/SIR dynamics, which in addition is aided by external agents - sources unconstrained by the graph, but possessing a limited infection rate or virulence. Such a model captures many existing models of externally aided epidemics, and finds use in many settings - epidemiology, marketing and advertising, network robustness, etc. We provide a detailed characterization of the impact of external agents on epidemic thresholds. In particular, for the SIS model, we show that any external infection strategy with constant virulence either fails to significantly affect the lifetime of an epidemic, or at best, sustains the epidemic for a lifetime which is polynomial in the number of nodes. On the other hand, a random external-infection strategy, with rate increasing linearly in the number of infected nodes, succeeds under some conditions to sustain an exponential epidemic lifetime. We obtain similar sharp thresholds for the SIR model, and discuss the relevance of our results in a variety of settings.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures (to appear in INFOCOM 2014

Innovative in silico approaches to address avian flu using grid technology

The recent years have seen the emergence of diseases which have spread very quickly all around the world either through human travels like SARS or animal migration like avian flu. Among the biggest challenges raised by infectious emerging diseases, one is related to the constant mutation of the viruses which turns them into continuously moving targets for drug and vaccine discovery. Another challenge is related to the early detection and surveillance of the diseases as new cases can appear just anywhere due to the globalization of exchanges and the circulation of people and animals around the earth, as recently demonstrated by the avian flu epidemics. For 3 years now, a collaboration of teams in Europe and Asia has been exploring some innovative in silico approaches to better tackle avian flu taking advantage of the very large computing resources available on international grid infrastructures. Grids were used to study the impact of mutations on the effectiveness of existing drugs against H5N1 and to find potentially new leads active on mutated strains. Grids allow also the integration of distributed data in a completely secured way. The paper presents how we are currently exploring how to integrate the existing data sources towards a global surveillance network for molecular epidemiology.Comment: 7 pages, submitted to Infectious Disorders - Drug Target

Malware Detection Module using Machine Learning Algorithms to Assist in Centralized Security in Enterprise Networks

Malicious software is abundant in a world of innumerable computer users, who are constantly faced with these threats from various sources like the internet, local networks and portable drives. Malware is potentially low to high risk and can cause systems to function incorrectly, steal data and even crash. Malware may be executable or system library files in the form of viruses, worms, Trojans, all aimed at breaching the security of the system and compromising user privacy. Typically, anti-virus software is based on a signature definition system which keeps updating from the internet and thus keeping track of known viruses. While this may be sufficient for home-users, a security risk from a new virus could threaten an entire enterprise network. This paper proposes a new and more sophisticated antivirus engine that can not only scan files, but also build knowledge and detect files as potential viruses. This is done by extracting system API calls made by various normal and harmful executable, and using machine learning algorithms to classify and hence, rank files on a scale of security risk. While such a system is processor heavy, it is very effective when used centrally to protect an enterprise network which maybe more prone to such threats.Comment: 6 page

Strategic Investment in Protection in Networked Systems

We study the incentives that agents have to invest in costly protection against cascading failures in networked systems. Applications include vaccination, computer security and airport security. Agents are connected through a network and can fail either intrinsically or as a result of the failure of a subset of their neighbors. We characterize the equilibrium based on an agent's failure probability and derive conditions under which equilibrium strategies are monotone in degree (i.e. in how connected an agent is on the network). We show that different kinds of applications (e.g. vaccination, malware, airport/EU security) lead to very different equilibrium patterns of investments in protection, with important welfare and risk implications. Our equilibrium concept is flexible enough to allow for comparative statics in terms of network properties and we show that it is also robust to the introduction of global externalities (e.g. price feedback, congestion).Comment: 32 pages, 3 figure

The Behavior of Epidemics under Bounded Susceptibility

We investigate the sensitivity of epidemic behavior to a bounded susceptibility constraint -- susceptible nodes are infected by their neighbors via the regular SI/SIS dynamics, but subject to a cap on the infection rate. Such a constraint is motivated by modern social networks, wherein messages are broadcast to all neighbors, but attention spans are limited. Bounded susceptibility also arises in distributed computing applications with download bandwidth constraints, and in human epidemics under quarantine policies. Network epidemics have been extensively studied in literature; prior work characterizes the graph structures required to ensure fast spreading under the SI dynamics, and long lifetime under the SIS dynamics. In particular, these conditions turn out to be meaningful for two classes of networks of practical relevance -- dense, uniform (i.e., clique-like) graphs, and sparse, structured (i.e., star-like) graphs. We show that bounded susceptibility has a surprising impact on epidemic behavior in these graph families. For the SI dynamics, bounded susceptibility has no effect on star-like networks, but dramatically alters the spreading time in clique-like networks. In contrast, for the SIS dynamics, clique-like networks are unaffected, but star-like networks exhibit a sharp change in extinction times under bounded susceptibility. Our findings are useful for the design of disease-resistant networks and infrastructure networks. More generally, they show that results for existing epidemic models are sensitive to modeling assumptions in non-intuitive ways, and suggest caution in directly using these as guidelines for real systems