A model driven approach to web-based traffic simulation.

As the world population increases the number of vehicles in the traffic increases as well, and so the traffic becomes more complex. Problems in the urban traffic such as traffic congestion, car accidents, parking difficulties, etc. have a large impact on people's lives as well as the environment. Therefore, researchers, policy makers, decision takers and planners use expert tools to find the best solutions for traffic and transportation problems. Traffic modeling and simulation has been used for analyzing, designing, planning and managing urban traffic for many years. Various techniques have been proposed and many tools have been developed by researchers to assist the modeling and simulation activities in the traffic domain for more than half a century. However, improving the existing methods and developing new tools for traffic simulation are gaining importance due to the emerging technologies. Web-based modeling and simulation has been popular in the last decade, and has a great promise in terms of collaborative and distributed simulations. Model driven approaches are employed in the simulation field for a long time and have provided rapid development solutions. In this paper, a model driven Web-based traffic simulation framework is proposed and a prototype implementation is presented

Markovian Workload Characterization for QoS Prediction in the Cloud.

Resource allocation in the cloud is usually driven by performance predictions, such as estimates of the future incoming load to the servers or of the quality-of-service (QoS) offered by applications to end users. In this context, characterizing web workload fluctuations in an accurate way is fundamental to understand how to provision cloud resources under time-varying traffic intensities. In this paper, we investigate the Markovian Arrival Processes (MAP) and the related MAP/MAP/1 queueing model as a tool for performance prediction of servers deployed in the cloud. MAPs are a special class of Markov models used as a compact description of the time-varying characteristics of workloads. In addition, MAPs can fit heavy-tail distributions, that are common in HTTP traffic, and can be easily integrated within analytical queueing models to efficiently predict system performance without simulating. By comparison with trace-driven simulation, we observe that existing techniques for MAP parameterization from HTTP log files often lead to inaccurate performance predictions. We then define a maximum likelihood method for fitting MAP parameters based on data commonly available in Apache log files, and a new technique to cope with batch arrivals, which are notoriously difficult to model accurately. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy of our approach for performance prediction of web systems. © 2011 IEEE

The pseudo-self-similar traffic model: application and validation

Since the early 1990¿s, a variety of studies has shown that network traffic, both for local- and wide-area networks, has self-similar properties. This led to new approaches in network traffic modelling because most traditional traffic approaches result in the underestimation of performance measures of interest. Instead of developing completely new traffic models, a number of researchers have proposed to adapt traditional traffic modelling approaches to incorporate aspects of self-similarity. The motivation for doing so is the hope to be able to reuse techniques and tools that have been developed in the past and with which experience has been gained. One such approach for a traffic model that incorporates aspects of self-similarity is the so-called pseudo self-similar traffic model. This model is appealing, as it is easy to understand and easily embedded in Markovian performance evaluation studies. In applying this model in a number of cases, we have perceived various problems which we initially thought were particular to these specific cases. However, we recently have been able to show that these problems are fundamental to the pseudo self-similar traffic model. In this paper we review the pseudo self-similar traffic model and discuss its fundamental shortcomings. As far as we know, this is the first paper that discusses these shortcomings formally. We also report on ongoing work to overcome some of these problems

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Fine-grained traffic state estimation and visualisation

Tools for visualising the current traffic state are used by local authorities for strategic monitoring of the traffic network and by everyday users for planning their journey. Popular visualisations include those provided by Google Maps and by Inrix. Both employ a traffic lights colour-coding system, where roads on a map are coloured green if traffic is flowing normally and red or black if there is congestion. New sensor technology, especially from wireless sources, is allowing resolution down to lane level. A case study is reported in which a traffic micro-simulation test bed is used to generate high-resolution estimates. An interactive visualisation of the fine-grained traffic state is presented. The visualisation is demonstrated using Google Earth and affords the user a detailed three-dimensional view of the traffic state down to lane level in real time

When should I use network emulation ?

The design and development of a complex system requires an adequate methodology and efficient instrumental support in order to early detect and correct anomalies in the functional and non-functional properties of the tested protocols. Among the various tools used to provide experimental support for such developments, network emulation relies on real-time production of impairments on real traffic according to a communication model, either realistically or not. This paper aims at simply presenting to newcomers in network emulation (students, engineers, ...) basic principles and practices illustrated with a few commonly used tools. The motivation behind is to fill a gap in terms of introductory and pragmatic papers in this domain. The study particularly considers centralized approaches, allowing cheap and easy implementation in the context of research labs or industrial developments. In addition, an architectural model for emulation systems is proposed, defining three complementary levels, namely hardware, impairment and model levels. With the help of this architectural framework, various existing tools are situated and described. Various approaches for modeling the emulation actions are studied, such as impairment-based scenarios and virtual architectures, real-time discrete simulation and trace-based systems. Those modeling approaches are described and compared in terms of services and we study their ability to respond to various designer needs to assess when emulation is needed