The challenge of the past for the future of the social sciences

Abstract Purpose – To demonstrate that the past of the social sciences contains all the elements of sociocybernetics and that those elements combined with the logic of modern interdisciplinary simulation research will meet challenges modern society poses to those sciences. Design/methodology/approach – A historical analysis, leading to an outline of advanced logic of social science research, shows the way to modern (computer) simulation research. Findings – When the theoretical principles of sociocybernetics are put into practice by doing (empirically based) simulation research, it can handle in a scientifically valid way a number of research questions modern complex society poses, such as how processes of self-organization in individuals, groups and institutes can be described and understood; self-organization of autobiographic memory of individuals can be simulated in a computer; these individual memories are related to collective memories of generations; these different generations of social researchers can work together and balance in a creative synergy between the wisdom of the past and surprising hypotheses of the future. Research limitations/implications – Social sciences researchers have to work with advanced logic of research such as is propagated in simulation research and by sociocybernetics. Practical implications – Different generations of sociocyberneticians here to work together in (empirically based) simulation research to demonstrate the usefulness of sociocybernetical theory and logic. Originality/value – Sociocybernetics is not an exotic field but a normal legitimate constituent of the social sciences. Keywords Scientificmanagement, Systems theory, Cybernetics, Feedback, Self assessment, Simulatio

Path Analysis of Direct and Indirect Effect of Statistical literacy on Applying Proper Statistical Test (Case Study of agricultural extension and education graduated students)

Abstract: Research methods, statistical analysis and domination on subject are essential for a rich dissertation and thesis to be developed. The main goal of this study was to obtain the perception of the agricultural extension and education graduated students about their statistical literacy, reasoning and thinking according to standard tests and to trace thematic evolution (content analysis) of dissertations and thesis done by the same graduated students according to sequential statistics analysis approach (SSAA). To this end, the study analyzed 315 thesis and dissertation to understand, how and to what extent, proper and mix statistical methods are applied to achieve realistic outcomes. In the other hand, 115 questionnaires were fulfilled, containing statistical standard tests about statistical literacy, reasoning, thinking, attitude, content knowledge and principal component of statistics learning. According to the path analysis results, the statistical attitude (total effect=0.80) had the most effect (direct and indirect effect) on applying statistical methods

Sähköntuotannon ulottuvuuksia : aineistolähtöinen malli olennaisista yhteyksistä

Työn tavoitteena oli muodostaa kokonaiskuva sähköjärjestelmän sisäisistä ja ulkoisista vuorovaikutussuhteista. Sähköntuotantoa tarkasteltiin ympäristöönsä kytkeytyvänä systeeminä tieteidenvälisestä näkökulmasta. Tätä tarkoitusta varten rakennettiin menetelmä laajan kokonaisuuden hahmottamiseksi ja sovellettiin sitä sähköntuotannon alalle. Menetelmäperustuu grounded theoryyn ja systeemiajatteluun: Aineisto kerättiin ja luokiteltiin grounded theorya soveltaen. Systeemiajattelua käytettiin aineiston analyysissä ja aihealuetta kuvaavien mallien luomisessa. Aineisto kerättiin haastattelemalla sähköntuotannon ja -kulutuksen asiantuntijoita. Sen pohjalta rakennettiin useita alamalleja kuvaamaan sähköntuotantokompleksin osajärjestelmiä sekä näitä yhdistävä päämalli. Alamallien aihealueiksi muodostuivat tekninen sähköjärjestelmä, sähköjärjestelmän talous, sähkönsäästö, yhteiskunnallinen vaikuttaminen, ympäristö sekä tuotantorakenteen uusiminen. Lisäksi työssä esitettiin aineistosta nousseita kriteerejä hyvälle sähköjärjestelmälle ja sähköjärjestelmään liittyviä toimijoita. Mallien yhteydessä käsiteltiin myöseri tuotantomuotojen ominaisuuksia. Työn tuloksia tarkasteltiin kriittisesti kirjallisuuden valossa ja arvioitiin luotujen mallien sovellettavuutta. Malleja on mahdollista hyödyntää tieteenalarajoja ylittävän energiatutkimuksen jäsentäjänä sekä arvioitaessa kestävämmän energiapolitiikan edellytyksiä järjestelmätasolla

A Systemic Approach to Next Generation Infrastructure Data Elicitation and Planning Using Serious Gaming Methods

Infrastructure systems are vital to the functioning of our society and economy. However, these systems are increasingly complex and are more interdependent than ever, making them difficult to manage. In order to respond to increasing demand, environmental concerns, and natural and man-made threats, infrastructure systems have to adapt and transform. Traditional engineering design approaches and planning tools have proven to be inadequate when planning and managing these complex socio-technical system transitions. The design and implementation of next generation infrastructure systems require holistic methodologies, encompassing organizational and societal aspects in addition to technical factors. In order to do so, a serious gaming based risk assessment methodology is developed to assist infrastructure data elicitation and planning. The methodology combines the use of various models, commercial-off-the-shelf solutions and a gaming approach to aggregate the inputs of various subject matter experts (SMEs) to predict future system characteristics. The serious gaming based approach enables experts to obtain a thorough understanding of the complexity and interdependency of the system while offering a platform to experiment with various strategies and scenarios. In order to demonstrate its abilities, the methodology was applied to National Airspace System (NAS) overhaul and its transformation to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The implemented methodology yielded a comprehensive safety assessment and data generation mechanism, embracing the social and technical aspects of the NAS transformation for the next 15 years

A diagnostic investigation and a corrective model for implementing change in response to innovation

Organizational change can be described as a series of activities oriented towards modifying behaviors and structures within the organization. These series of activities are interconnected internally and externally and are affected by human, operational and environmental factors that dynamically influence decisions and processes in the organization. There has been a significant amount of work in organizational change, using both behavioral and systemic approaches. Moreover it has been argued that research in change processes should include also the dynamic relationship between change processes and outcomes to detect how organizational change context, processes and the pace of change affect performance outcomes. Despite the amount of research, there is a need for more profound studies exploring the contexts, content, and processes involved in a change initiative. This research proposes a model to help organizations implement change initiatives with an increased likelihood of success. The Influence Model for Organizational Change – IMOC - was developed with the hope of better demonstrating the dynamics that take place in the organization by using a systems engineering view. As an exercise to verify the relationships that govern IMOC a systems dynamic simulation model was partially developed. The dynamic simulation confirmed the impact of variables such as employees’ and management participation, environment and delay in implementing policies on the level of resistance to change existing in the organization.Organizational change can be described as a series of activities oriented towards modifying behaviors and structures within the organization. These series of activities are interconnected internally and externally and are affected by human, operational and environmental factors that dynamically influence decisions and processes in the organization. There has been a significant amount of work in organizational change, using both behavioral and systemic approaches. Moreover it has been argued that research in change processes should include also the dynamic relationship between change processes and outcomes to detect how organizational change context, processes and the pace of change affect performance outcomes. Despite the amount of research, there is a need for more profound studies exploring the contexts, content, and processes involved in a change initiative. This research proposes a model to help organizations implement change initiatives with an increased likelihood of success. The Influence Model for Organizational Change – IMOC - was developed with the hope of better demonstrating the dynamics that take place in the organization by using a systems engineering view. As an exercise to verify the relationships that govern IMOC a systems dynamic simulation model was partially developed. The dynamic simulation confirmed the impact of variables such as employees’ and management participation, environment and delay in implementing policies on the level of resistance to change existing in the organization

The role of anthropogenic disturbance in the creation of a socio-ecological landscape

The aim of this thesis is to examine the role of anthropogenic disturbance in the creation of a socio-ecological landscape. Three key questions were answered: what impact has past anthropogenic disturbance had on present vegetative characteristics; what value did this disturbed landscape have to local people; how did the local peoples' worldviews and eco-cosmologies influence how they perceived, valued and managed their landscape? Research was based in a rural, predominantly amaXhosa village in the Kat River valley, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Four major landscape components characterised the environment, namely dense forests, former grazing lands, abandoned fields and old settlements. A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods were adopted, consisting of a vegetation and soil survey and social science methods including semistructured interviews, focus groups, transect walks and participant observation. The key finding was that anthropogenic disturbance is necessary to enhance the potential of the area to support human habitation. However, anthropogenic disturbance can have positive or negative effects for both local people and the environment. An intermediate level of disturbance is a key factor leading to a resilient socio-ecological system. Various anthropogenic disturbances have had significant affects on vegetation characteristics in terms of species richness, and a change in vegetation composition and species heights. Of the three anthropogenic landscapes examined, former grazing lands were the least intensively disturbed. They were also more species rich and structurally diverse than areas that were under agricultural production or used as a settlement. Dense forests, although the least desirable landscape to local people were, together with sacred pools, sources of ecosystem renewal and played a critical role during times of disturbance. Anthropogenic disturbance has added value to local people's livelihoods; this disturbance has resulted in a patchy landscape that supplies a wide variety of resources to local people. Local people are dependent on their environment for their basic needs; this has encouraged sustainable management practices. The local AmaXhosa still retain many elements of their traditional worldview, which has many characteristics of Animism. The environment is an integral component of their belief system and certain sites and species have significant cultural value and are protected

The role of anthropogenic disturbance in the creation of a socio-ecological landscape

The aim of this thesis is to examine the role of anthropogenic disturbance in the creation of a socio-ecological landscape. Three key questions were answered: what impact has past anthropogenic disturbance had on present vegetative characteristics; what value did this disturbed landscape have to local people; how did the local peoples' worldviews and eco-cosmologies influence how they perceived, valued and managed their landscape? Research was based in a rural, predominantly amaXhosa village in the Kat River valley, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Four major landscape components characterised the environment, namely dense forests, former grazing lands, abandoned fields and old settlements. A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods were adopted, consisting of a vegetation and soil survey and social science methods including semistructured interviews, focus groups, transect walks and participant observation. The key finding was that anthropogenic disturbance is necessary to enhance the potential of the area to support human habitation. However, anthropogenic disturbance can have positive or negative effects for both local people and the environment. An intermediate level of disturbance is a key factor leading to a resilient socio-ecological system. Various anthropogenic disturbances have had significant affects on vegetation characteristics in terms of species richness, and a change in vegetation composition and species heights. Of the three anthropogenic landscapes examined, former grazing lands were the least intensively disturbed. They were also more species rich and structurally diverse than areas that were under agricultural production or used as a settlement. Dense forests, although the least desirable landscape to local people were, together with sacred pools, sources of ecosystem renewal and played a critical role during times of disturbance. Anthropogenic disturbance has added value to local people's livelihoods; this disturbance has resulted in a patchy landscape that supplies a wide variety of resources to local people. Local people are dependent on their environment for their basic needs; this has encouraged sustainable management practices. The local AmaXhosa still retain many elements of their traditional worldview, which has many characteristics of Animism. The environment is an integral component of their belief system and certain sites and species have significant cultural value and are protected

Human-river relationships in the Kat River catchment and the implications for integrated water resource management (IWRM) : an exploraratory study

Through out this study ‘relational scenarios’ were seen as the possible outcomes of the expression of human-river relationships in a catchment. Working within Inglis’s (2008, pg. 10) comment that ‘the Human World Relationship is expressed through a person’s views and behaviour towards the natural world, which can be either constructive or destructive’, two relational scenarios were selected to represent these two predicted outcomes of human-environment (or in the case of this thesis human-river) relationships: IWRM, seen as constructive and mutually beneficial to both the social and ecological system, and the Tragedy of the Commons, seen as destructive and parasitic in nature. In respect to this assertion, a conceptual framework or model was developed and used to guide the inductive process of this research. Through a social survey (administered via semi-structured interviews) of stakeholders (water-users) in the Kat River Catchment, Eastern Cape, South Africa, social attitudes towards the Kat River were explored. These attitudes were considered as variables that relate to the expression of ‘Human World Relationships’ namely ‘values and behaviour’ (Inglis, 2008, pg. 10). The findings of this thesis confirm that attitudes are influential components of human-river relationships in the Kat River Catchment. It was observed from the findings that the attitudes individuals have towards the Kat River have the potential to influence the ways people interact with the River and its associated resources, and are in turn influenced by the condition of the River and connections people have or make with the River within their daily lives. Such relationships in turn affect the management of the River and its water resources and influence how individuals approach water-related issues and undertake the associated activities. Given this understanding it was then proposed that attitudes could provide information that enables the prediction of likely ‘relational scenarios’ (IWRM or the Tragedy of the Commons) in a catchment. The findings appear to support this proposal, and three main attitude groups (utilitarian, associative and dissociative) were identified and used to further the discussion into how this knowledge could be used in predicting possible relational scenarios based on human-river relationships. Further exploration of the identified attitude groups suggested that these variables are significantly influenced by environmental ethics and place attachment (present in the community) and a series of guiding frameworks were developed to facilitate the exploration of the attitude groups relative to these concepts. The frameworks were generated from the hypothesis that knowledge of attitude groups in a catchment, in connection with the relative degrees to which moral values and worldviews are expressed, could provide insight into the readiness of a catchment system for the implementation of IWRM and/or the facilitative steps needed to shift the influence of unfavourable attitude groups (i.e. dissociative attitudes). Such steps would most likely involve extensive educational, awareness and capacity building programs. Finally, given the above theoretical frameworks, inductively developed from the findings of the social survey and related literature, the conceptual model was reevaluated and extended to include the thesis findings and hypotheses. It is suggested that in a catchment where there is a balance between the expression of utilitarian and associative attitude groups, then there is a high probability of finding present evidence of mutually beneficial human-river relationships already in play, as well as ‘fertile soil’ for the promotion of IWRM and philosophies and skills that generate such relationships. Alternatively in an area with a strong expression of dissociative attitudes, it is more likely to find evidence of destructive, more parasitic-like relationships being expressed, and a lack of commitment and interest in being involved in changing the status quo. It is likely that where both associative and dissociative attitudes are present there will be an overlap of elements of both scenarios – a situation that is probable in most catchments – depending on the strength of expression of either attitude group the balance will shift (be shifting) between the two relational scenarios