Decision-theoretical formulation of the calibration problem

The choice of calibration policy is of basic importance in analytical chemistry. A prototype of the practical calibration problem is formulated as a mathematical task and a Bayesian solution of the resulting decision problem is presented. The optimum feedback calibration policy can then be found by dynamic programming. The underlying parameter estimation and filtering are solved by updating relevant conditional distributions. In this way: the necessary information is specified (for instance, the need for knowledge of the probability distribution of unknown samples is clearly recognized as the conceptually unavoidable informational source); the relationship of the information gained from a calibration experiment to the ultimate goal of calibration, i.e., to the estimation of unknown samples, is explained; an ideal solution is given which can serve for comparing various ways of calibration; and a consistent and conceptually simple guideline is given for using decision theory when solving problems of analytical chemistry containing uncertain data. The abstract formulation is systematically illustrated by an example taken from gas chromatography

Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Distributed Robustness Analysis of Interconnected Uncertain Systems Using Chordal Decomposition

Large-scale interconnected uncertain systems commonly have large state and uncertainty dimensions. Aside from the heavy computational cost of solving centralized robust stability analysis techniques, privacy requirements in the network can also introduce further issues. In this paper, we utilize IQC analysis for analyzing large-scale interconnected uncertain systems and we evade these issues by describing a decomposition scheme that is based on the interconnection structure of the system. This scheme is based on the so-called chordal decomposition and does not add any conservativeness to the analysis approach. The decomposed problem can be solved using distributed computational algorithms without the need for a centralized computational unit. We further discuss the merits of the proposed analysis approach using a numerical experiment.Comment: 3 figures. Submitted to the 19th IFAC world congres

Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization

In this paper we survey the primary research, both theoretical and applied, in the area of Robust Optimization (RO). Our focus is on the computational attractiveness of RO approaches, as well as the modeling power and broad applicability of the methodology. In addition to surveying prominent theoretical results of RO, we also present some recent results linking RO to adaptable models for multi-stage decision-making problems. Finally, we highlight applications of RO across a wide spectrum of domains, including finance, statistics, learning, and various areas of engineering.Comment: 50 page