115,532 research outputs found
Decision-theoretical formulation of the calibration problem
The choice of calibration policy is of basic importance in analytical
chemistry. A prototype of the practical calibration problem is
formulated as a mathematical task and a Bayesian solution of the
resulting decision problem is presented. The optimum feedback
calibration policy can then be found by dynamic programming. The
underlying parameter estimation and filtering are solved by
updating relevant conditional distributions. In this way: the
necessary information is specified (for instance, the need for
knowledge of the probability distribution of unknown samples is
clearly recognized as the conceptually unavoidable informational
source); the relationship of the information gained from a
calibration experiment to the ultimate goal of calibration, i.e., to
the estimation of unknown samples, is explained; an ideal solution
is given which can serve for comparing various ways of calibration;
and a consistent and conceptually simple guideline is given for
using decision theory when solving problems of analytical chemistry
containing uncertain data. The abstract formulation is systematically
illustrated by an example taken from gas chromatography
Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework
This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version
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Design of domestic photovoltaics manufacturing systems under global constraints and uncertainty
As global political discourse is taking place where the need for a cleaner energy mix is constantly highlighted, manufacturing strategies are becoming more relevant. Thus, the photovoltaics system design is a crucial aspect related with the overall sustainability. In fact, various countries are considering the potential to locally manufacture different elements of the photovoltaics (PV) value chain and the strategies to incentivize a local manufacturing base. This paper develops a mathematical programming approach for the optimal design of a PV manufacturing value chain considering diverse criteria linked to economic and environmental performance such as minimum sustainable price, transportation capacity, among others, and considering uncertainty. In addition, the proposed methodology involves the dependence over time of supply chain variables and economic parameters such as inflation, electricity cost, and weighted average cost of capital, to determine the manufacturing system topology under uncertain conditions. Our results highlight the importance of planning models to develop markets policies related to supply chains, production level changes and imposed tariffs all while involving uncertainty in economic parameters, which is an improvement compared to planning models that use deterministic formulations. Finally, the proposed methodology and results can encourage decision-making considering probable variations in different parameters
Distributed Robustness Analysis of Interconnected Uncertain Systems Using Chordal Decomposition
Large-scale interconnected uncertain systems commonly have large state and
uncertainty dimensions. Aside from the heavy computational cost of solving
centralized robust stability analysis techniques, privacy requirements in the
network can also introduce further issues. In this paper, we utilize IQC
analysis for analyzing large-scale interconnected uncertain systems and we
evade these issues by describing a decomposition scheme that is based on the
interconnection structure of the system. This scheme is based on the so-called
chordal decomposition and does not add any conservativeness to the analysis
approach. The decomposed problem can be solved using distributed computational
algorithms without the need for a centralized computational unit. We further
discuss the merits of the proposed analysis approach using a numerical
experiment.Comment: 3 figures. Submitted to the 19th IFAC world congres
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