Modeling and Analysis of Resolve and Morale for the `Long War\u27

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied. Sun Tzu follow\u27s this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat. The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril. In the face of the instant communication provided by satellites, 24 hour news media coverage, and other technological advances, this factor is even more relevant today. This research provides an analytic framework, based on the principles of fourth generation operations, capturing the effects of will and resolve of the combatant and population. The strategic level model investigates the long term impacts of asymmetric conflict. These results are primarily measured in the socio-political arena rather than the military battlefield. The model developed in this dissertation remains a model of conflict and combat. However, some of the impacts from the political, economic, and informational instruments of power are represented in the model through the dynamic adaptation of public resolve and combat spirit. To paraphrase Sun Tzu, war is vitally important and must be studied. Therefore, this dissertation puts forth a means to model key aspects of conflict in the `long war\u27

Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare, Volume I

The Twentieth Century has been characterized by innumerable attempts to use the Scientific Method as a basis for policy planning in national and international affairs. The emergence of the field of operations research (OR) out of attempts of scientists in the Western Democracies to apply the Scientific Method to military problems during World War II is well known. Since World War II there has been a dramatic growth in both the interest in and use of OR and systems-analysis techniques for such purposes within the U.S. defense establish- ment, especially since the beginning of the so-called McNamara Era of defense planning. A concomitant trend has been an equally dramatic increase in both the number and variety of mathematical models used to support these analytical activities

Modeling of combat operations

Introduction/purpose: The goal of the research in this paper is to present and evaluate the method of modeling operations by aggregating forces by simulating the battle process with Lanchester's equations. This method is the software basis of a certain number of programs used in NATO, in war simulations, and in the planning and analysis of operations. Its value is in understanding the consequences of decisions made with outcomes and results of combat actions. Methods: The case study of the well-known Operation Desert Storm gathered the necessary data on operational parameters and the way forces are used in battles. The obtained data were transformed into operational variables of the combat model using the force aggregation method, whose simulation was carried out using the method of differential Lanchester's equations (quadratic law). Results: By simulating the modeled operation, the parameters of the outcome of the conflict were obtained with numerical indicators of success, consumption of resources, etc. The results were analyzed and a certain correlation with the parameters of the real operation was determined, which enables the validation of the model. Conclusion: The partial validity of the model describing the conflict on a practical historical example from a case study was confirmed. There are objective limitations in the application of modeling of military operations and optimization of the use of forces. The value of this method is the possibility of a reliable strategic assessment of the adversary's military power at the strategic level

A game theoretic analysis of the Waterloo campaign and some comments on the analytic narrative project

The paper has a twofold aim. On the one hand, it provides what appears to be the first game-theoretic modeling of Napoleon’s last campaign, which ended dramatically on 18 June 1815 at Waterloo. It is specifically concerned with the decision Napoleon made on 17 June 1815 to detach part of his army against the Prussians he had defeated, though not destroyed, on 16 June at Ligny. Military historians agree that this decision was crucial but disagree about whether it was rational. Hypothesizing a zero-sum game between Napoleon and Blücher, and computing its solution, we show that it could have been a cautious strategy on the former's part to divide his army, a conclusion which runs counter to the charges of misjudgement commonly heard since Clausewitz. On the other hand, the paper addresses methodological issues. We defend its case study against the objections of irrelevance that have been raised elsewhere against “analytic narratives”, and conclude that military campaigns provide an opportunity for successful application of the formal theories of rational choice. Generalizing the argument, we finally investigate the conflict between narrative accounts – the historians' standard mode of expression – and mathematical modeling.Napoléon; Blücher; Grouchy; Waterloo; military history; rational choice theories; game theory; zero-sum two-person games; analytical narrative

Epäsuoran tulen mallintaminen metsämaastossa

Indirect fire provided by artillery and mortars is one of the most powerful weapons available to Finnish Army. Effective use of indirect fire requires as accurate as possible information about its effects on different targets. Military modeling is one possible way of obtaining information that can be used to support decision making. Large percentage of Finland is covered in forest. Forest also affects significantly on the effectiveness of indirect fire. At the moment Finnish Defense Forces do not have a simulation model that could accurately estimate the effect that the forest covering has. The purpose of this thesis is to produce a mathematical model that can estimate the height distribution of air bursts when indirect fire is used against a target that is inside forest. When the probability distribution of airburst locations is known, it can be used to improve the accuracy of the indirect fire model of the operations analysis tool Sandis. This thesis presents a physics based mathematical model that can be used to estimate the probability distribution of air burst locations in different forest environments. Also presented is how the parameters required by the model can be derived from publicly available data offered by Metla. Because the forest data covers whole Finland, it is easy to use the model for calculating the effects of artillery fire in any known location within the country. However, the mathematical model itself is not depending on the forest data offered by Metla. Thus, it can be extended to handle different types of forest data or entirely different types of forests or jungles. To validate the mathematical model a test program was created. It was used to calculate damage caused by artillery and mortar strikes to prone soldier targets in a typical Finnish forest environment. The results were then compared to field test data found in literature. The testing revealed that the model’s results seem similar to those produced by artillery field tests. The model also produces more accurate results than simply ignoring the forest cover. The benefits of using the model were greatest when the angle of fall of artillery shells was low. On very low angles of fall the difference in casualties sustained by the soldier targets was as much as 50% higher when the forest cover was taken into account. The model presented in this thesis seems to work as intended, and it can be used to significantly improve the accuracy of damage estimations of indirect fire in forest environment.Tykistön ja kranaatinheittimistön epäsuora tuli on voimakkaimpia Suomen maavoimien käytössä olevia aseita. Epäsuoran tulen tehokas käyttö vaatii mahdollisimman tarkkaa informaatiota tulen tehosta erilaisia kohteita vastaan. Taistelumallinnus on yksi tapa saada tietoa päätöksenteon tueksi. Suuri osa Suomen pinta-alasta on metsän peitossa. Metsällä on myös merkittävä vaikutus epäsuoran tulen tehoon. Tällä hetkellä Puolustusvoimilla ei kuitenkaan ole käytössään taistelumallia, joka pystyisi huomioimaan puuston vaikutuksen epäsuoraan tuleen. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on kehittää matemaattinen malli, jolla ennustaa tykistön ja heittimistön kranaattien räjähdyskorkeuksia metsämaastossa. Kun räjähdyskorkeuksien jakauma on tunnettu, voidaan sitä käyttää parantamaan operaatioanalyysityökalu Sandiksen epäsuoran tulen vaikutuslaskennan tarkkuutta Suomalaisissa metsäolosuhteissa. Työssä esitellään fysikaalinen matemaattinen malli, jolla voidaan estimoida kranaattien räjähdyskorkeuksien jakaumaa erilaisissa metsissä. Työssä myös esitellään kuinka metsäkohtainen laskentaan voidaan suorittaa käyttäen ainoastaan parametreja, jotka ovat julkisesti saatavilla Metlan metsädatatietokannasta tai suoraan johdettavissa sieltä löytyvistä parametreista. Koska metsätietokanta kattaa koko Suomen, on mallia mahdollista käyttää helposti tykistön tulen vaikutuksen laskentaan millä tahansa etukäteen tiedossa olevalla alueella Suomen alueella. Itse matemaattinen malli ei kuitenkaan ole mitenkään sidottu metsätietokannan parametreihin, joten se on myös helposti sovellettavissa myös käytettäväksi tilanteissa, joissa saatavilla on erimuotoista metsädataa tai tutkittavana on jopa täysin suomalaisista metsistä eroava metsä tai viidakko. Matemaattisen mallin validointia varten tuotettiin testiohjelma, jolla laskettiin, millaista vahinkoa tykistö- tai heitinisku tekee jalkaväkimaaleihin erilaisissa Suomelle tyypillisissä metsissä. Laskennan tuloksia verrattiin kirjallisista lähteistä löytyviin koeammunnan tuloksiin. Nämä testilaskennat osoittivat, että mallin tuottamat tulokset näyttävät vastaavan koeammuntojen tuloksia. Malli myös tuottaa tarkempia tuloksia kuin puuston vaikutuksen jättäminen kokonaan huomioimatta. Kaikkein suurimmat erot syntyivät matalilla ammuksen tulokulmilla, jolloin maaliin koituvat tappiot olivat jopa puolitoistakertaiset, kun puuston vaikutus otettiin huomioon. Täten malli näyttää toimivan, ja sillä voidaan saavuttaa huomattavia parannuksia epäsuoran tulen vaikutuslaskennan tarkkuuteen metsämaastossa

THINGNESS: COMPOSITIONAL STRATEGIES FOR EMERGING VIRTUAL SONIC OBJECTS

This selection of ten artworks represents the conclusion of my aesthetic and conceptual interests related to composition for the last three years. This research has been focused on the sound composition of immaterial vivid objects, as abstract articulated xeno entities which emerges from the listening. After introducing key concepts and influences from the repertoire and literature, this thesis explores an essential concept called ‘thingness’, which constitutes the main core in the full discourse of my artistic research. My definition of objects starts from this principle, which is unfolded in four main categories: thingness in relation with sound, the listener, time, and space. Thingness has been applied in two types of works: sound installations and mediabased pieces, and likewise extended to collaborations, challenging and strengthening my views within pieces of a wider aesthetic range

Speculations 3

In this third volume of Speculations, a serial imprint created to explore post-continental philosophy and speculative realism, a wide range of topics are covered, from the philosophy of religion to psychoanalysis to the philosophy of science to gender studies, and in a wide variety of formats (articles, interviews, position pieces, translations, and review essays)

A Revolutionary Perspective on Social Movements: Fundamentalism in the Islamic World

In the last two decades, we have seen a significant surge in the number of Islamic fundamentalist movements, and there has not been a concise reason as to why. The main objective of this research is to determine the causes of Islamic fundamentalism, and, in so showing that an Islamic fundamentalist movement is inherently a social movement. To determine the causes of Islamic fundamentalism it is best to employ a labyrinth analogy, and it consists of four social movement conditions. The four conditions that make up my fundamentalist labyrinth can be found in the four social movement literatures, and they include: resources associated with resource mobilization theory; opening political institutions as associated with political process theory; socioeconomic inequality associated with Marxism; and the ideas, be they religious or freedom of thought, associated with new social movement theory. Not one of the four social movement literatures acknowledges, or is able to explain Islamic fundamentalism. Taken as a whole, each plays a vital role in my fundamentalist labyrinth. Social movement theorists have excluded Islamic social movements, specifically Islamic fundamentalism, from each of their respective sub-fields because they do not fit into any one of their theories. However, by merging the different theories to form a new theory in the social movement literature, I have been able to explain the causes of Islamic fundamentalism. Furthermore, I have created the first dataset that contains every Islamic fundamentalist movement that is or has been in operation from 1970 through 2006. The fundamentalist dataset has a total N (total number of fundamentalist groups) of 16,072 and a total number of unique fundamentalist movements of 983. With this dataset I was able to determine what state-level phenomena are positively associated with Islamic fundamentalism. Finally, to solidify this I developed three in-depth case studies: Hamas, Hezbollah, and Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood