Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

Disaggregate Inter-Urban Mode Choice Models: A review of British Evidence with special Reference to Cross Elasticities.

The research reported in this paper forms part of EPSRC project GRK52522 entitled 'National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts'. The principal aim of this project is to develop a set of national and regional travel demand forecasts by land-based modes. These demand models for car, bus and rail will be based on a hierarchy of techniques and hence there are several strands to this research. One aspect of the research involves the review of aggregate models, based on collective travel behaviour, and the evidence that they yield on own and cross elasticities. Whilst such models provide a wealth of information on own elasticities, and are particularly well suited to the analysis of the effects of exogenous factors on travel demand, they tend to make little allowance for competitive effects and hence provide little evidence regarding cross-elasticities. Furthermore, their nature is such that there can be only limited segmentation of the elasticities by relevant travel and socio-economic factors. Another aspect of the study is reviewing the evidence that is provided by disaggregate models where, in contrast to the aggregate models, the unit of observation is the individual decision maker. Since such models examine competition between modes, they are particularly useful in providing evidence on cross-elasticities. A further aspect of the work will be the actual estimation of relevant demand models and elasticities for a range of circumstances and by a variety of means. The final stage prior to application of the models is to draw all the evidence together in a consistent manner, drawing upon the strengths of different approaches and the various insights that they provide

Smart Procurement of Naturally Generated Energy (SPONGE) for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Buses

We discuss a recently introduced ECO-driving concept known as SPONGE in the context of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Buses (PHEB)'s.Examples are given to illustrate the benefits of this approach to ECO-driving. Finally, distributed algorithms to realise SPONGE are discussed, paying attention to the privacy implications of the underlying optimisation problems.Comment: This paper is recently submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Automation Science and Engineerin

Estimating Uncertainty of Bus Arrival Times and Passenger Occupancies

Travel time reliability and the availability of seating and boarding space are important indicators of bus service quality and strongly influence users’ satisfaction and attitudes towards bus transit systems. With Automated Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automated Passenger Counter (APC) units becoming common on buses, some agencies have begun to provide real-time bus location and passenger occupancy information as a means to improve perceived transit reliability. Travel time prediction models have also been established based on AVL and APC data. However, existing travel time prediction models fail to provide an indication of the uncertainty associated with these estimates. This can cause a false sense of precision, which can lead to experiences associated with unreliable service. Furthermore, no existing models are available to predict individual bus occupancies at downstream stops to help travelers understand if there will be space available to board. The purpose of this project was to develop modeling frameworks to predict travel times (and associated uncertainties) as well as individual bus passenger occupancies. For travel times, accelerated failure-time survival models were used to predict the entire distribution of travel times expected. The survival models were found to be just as accurate as models developed using traditional linear regression techniques. However, the survival models were found to have smaller variances associated with predictions. For passenger occupancies, linear and count regression models were compared. The linear regression models were found to outperform count regression models, perhaps due to the additive nature of the passenger boarding process. Various modeling frameworks were tested and the best frameworks were identified for predictions at near stops (within five stops downstream) and far stops (further than eight stops). Overall, these results can be integrated into existing real-time transit information systems to improve the quality of information provided to passengers

Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure