21,095 research outputs found
Temporal trend and spatial analysis of the HIV epidemic in young men who have sex with men in the second largest Brazilian Amazonian province
After 40 years of its starting, the HIV epidemic in Brazilian Amazon region remains on an increasing trend. The young men who have sex with men (MSM) have been the most impacted by the HIV in the last decade. However, much more than attributing the risk behavior to HIV uniquely to the individual, behaviors are shaped by social determinants of health (SDH). Despite the problem, there is a scarcity of studies evaluating the impact of SDH on HIV among young MSM and none of them were done in the Northern of Brazil. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to analyse the HIV epidemic among Brazilian Amazonian young MSM using temporal trends and spatial analysis.
We conducted an ecological study using reported cases of HIV/AIDS in young MSM living in Pará, the second larger Brazilian Amazonian province, between 2007 and 2018. Data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. For the temporal analysis, we employed a Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess Forecasting model (STLF), which is a hybrid time-series forecast model, that combines the Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting model with the Seasonal-Trend by Loess (STL) decomposition method. For the spatial analysis, Moran’s spatial autocorrelation, spatial scan, and spatial regression techniques were used
Hybrid SGP4 orbit propagator
Two-Line Elements (TLEs) continue to be the sole public source of orbiter
observations. The accuracy of TLE propagations through the Simplified General
Perturbations-4 (SGP4) software decreases dramatically as the propagation
horizon increases, and thus the period of validity of TLEs is very limited. As
a result, TLEs are gradually becoming insufficient for the growing demands of
Space Situational Awareness (SSA). We propose a technique, based on the hybrid
propagation methodology, aimed at extending TLE validity with minimal changes
to the current TLE-SGP4 system in a non-intrusive way. It requires that the
institution in possession of the osculating elements distributes hybrid TLEs,
HTLEs, which encapsulate the standard TLE and the model of its propagation
error. The validity extension can be accomplished when the end user processes
HTLEs through the hybrid SGP4 propagator, HSGP4, which comprises the standard
SGP4 and an error corrector.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figure
Local Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Automatic Approaches
Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component in the
efficient management of power systems, which has been studied intensively over
the past 50 years. The emerging development of smart grid technologies is
posing new challenges as well as opportunities to STLF. Load data, collected at
higher geographical granularity and frequency through thousands of smart
meters, allows us to build a more accurate local load forecasting model, which
is essential for local optimization of power load through demand side
management. With this paper, we show how several existing approaches for STLF
are not applicable on local load forecasting, either because of long training
time, unstable optimization process, or sensitivity to hyper-parameters.
Accordingly, we select five models suitable for local STFL, which can be
trained on different time-series with limited intervention from the user. The
experiment, which consists of 40 time-series collected at different locations
and aggregation levels, revealed that yearly pattern and temperature
information are only useful for high aggregation level STLF. On local STLF
task, the modified version of double seasonal Holt-Winter proposed in this
paper performs relatively well with only 3 months of training data, compared to
more complex methods
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