Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

Assessment, design and control strategy development of a fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle for CSU's ecocar

2013 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Advanced automotive technology assessment and powertrain design are increasingly performed through modeling, simulation, and optimization. But technology assessments usually target many competing criteria making any individual optimization challenging and arbitrary. Further, independent design simulations and optimizations take considerable time to execute, and design constraints and objectives change throughout the design process. Changes in design considerations usually require re-processing of simulations and more time. In this thesis, these challenges are confronted through CSUs participation in the EcoCAR2 hybrid vehicle design competition. The complexity of the competition's design objectives leveraged development of a decision support system tool to aid in multi-criteria decision making across technologies and to perform powertrain optimization. To make the decision support system interactive, and bypass the problem of long simulation times, a new approach was taken. The result of this research is CSU's architecture selection and component sizing, which optimizes a composite objective function representing the competition score. The selected architecture is an electric vehicle with an onboard range extending hydrogen fuel cell system. The vehicle has a 145kW traction motor, 18.9kWh of lithium ion battery, a 15kW fuel cell system, and 5kg of hydrogen storage capacity. Finally, a control strategy was developed that improves the vehicles performance throughout the driving range under variable driving conditions. In conclusion, the design process used in this research is reviewed and evaluated against other common design methodologies. I conclude, through the highlighted case studies, that the approach is more comprehensive than other popular design methodologies and is likely to lead to a higher quality product. The upfront modeling work and decision support system formulation will pay off in superior and timely knowledge transfer and more informed design decisions. The hypothesis is supported by the three case studies examined in this thesis

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Meta-heuristic algorithms in car engine design: a literature survey

Meta-heuristic algorithms are often inspired by natural phenomena, including the evolution of species in Darwinian natural selection theory, ant behaviors in biology, flock behaviors of some birds, and annealing in metallurgy. Due to their great potential in solving difficult optimization problems, meta-heuristic algorithms have found their way into automobile engine design. There are different optimization problems arising in different areas of car engine management including calibration, control system, fault diagnosis, and modeling. In this paper we review the state-of-the-art applications of different meta-heuristic algorithms in engine management systems. The review covers a wide range of research, including the application of meta-heuristic algorithms in engine calibration, optimizing engine control systems, engine fault diagnosis, and optimizing different parts of engines and modeling. The meta-heuristic algorithms reviewed in this paper include evolutionary algorithms, evolution strategy, evolutionary programming, genetic programming, differential evolution, estimation of distribution algorithm, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization, memetic algorithms, and artificial immune system

Optimal energy management of a microgrid system

Mestrado de dupla diplomação com École Superieure en Sciences AppliquéesA smart management strategy for the energy ows circulating in microgrids is necessary to economically manage local production and consumption while maintaining the balance between supply and demand. Finding the optimum set-points of the various generators and the best scheduling of the microgrid generators can lead to moderate and judicious use of the powers available in the microgrid. This thesis aims to apply an energy management system based on optimization algorithms to ensure the optimal control of microgrids by taking as main purpose the minimization of the energy costs and reduction of the gas emissions rate responsible for greenhouse gases. Two approaches have been proposed to nd the optimal operating setpoints. The rst one is based on a uni-objective optimization approach in which several energy management systems are implemented for three case studies. This rst approach treats the optimization problem in a uni-objective way where the two functions price and gas emission are treated separately through optimization algorithms. In this approach the used methods are simplex method, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm and a hybrid method (LPPSO). The second situation is based on a multiobjective optimization approach that deals with the optimization of the two functions: cost and gas emission simultaneously, the optimization algorithm used for this purpose is Pareto-search. The resulting Pareto optimal points represent di erent scheduling scenarios of the microgrid system.Uma estrat egia de gest~ao inteligente dos uxos de energia que circulam numa microrrede e necess aria para gerir economicamente a produ c~ao e o consumo local, mantendo o equil brio entre a oferta e a procura. Encontrar a melhor programa c~ao dos geradores de microrrede pode levar a uma utiliza c~ao moderada e criteriosa das pot^encias dispon veis na microrrede. Esta tese visa desenvolver um sistema de gest~ao de energia baseado em algoritmos de otimiza c~ao para assegurar o controlo otimo das microrredes, tendo como objetivo principal a minimiza c~ao dos custos energ eticos e a redu c~ao da taxa de emiss~ao de gases respons aveis pelo com efeito de estufa. Foram propostas duas estrat egias para encontrar o escalonamento otimo para funcionamento. A primeira baseia-se numa abordagem de otimiza c~ao uni-objetivo no qual v arios sistemas de gest~ao de energia s~ao implementados para tr^es casos de estudo. Neste caso o problema de otimiza c~ao e baseado na fun c~ao pre co e na fun c~ao emiss~ao de gases. Os m etodos de otimiza c~ao utilizados foram: algoritmo simplex, algoritmos gen eticos, particle swarm optimization e m etodo h brido (LP-PSO). A segunda situa c~ao baseia-se numa abordagem de otimiza c~ao multi-objetivo que trata a otimiza c~ao das duas fun c~oes: custo e emiss~ao de gases em simult^aneo. O algoritmo de otimiza c~ao utilizado para este m foi a Procura de Pareto. Os pontos otimos de Pareto resultantes representam diferentes cen arios de programa c~ao do sistema de microrrede

Hybrid artificial intelligence algorithms for short-term load and price forecasting in competitive electric markets

The liberalization and deregulation of electric markets forced the various participants to accommodate several challenges, including: a considerable accumulation of new generation capacity from renewable sources (fundamentally wind energy), the unpredictability associated with these new forms of generation and new consumption patterns, contributing to further electricity prices volatility (e.g. the Iberian market). Given the competitive framework in which market participants operate, the existence of efficient computational forecasting techniques is a distinctive factor. Based on these forecasts a suitable bidding strategy and an effective generation systems operation planning is achieved, together with an improved installed transmission capacity exploitation, results in maximized profits, all this contributing to a better energy resources utilization. This dissertation presents a new hybrid method for load and electricity prices forecasting, for one day ahead time horizon. The optimization scheme presented in this method, combines the efforts from different techniques, notably artificial neural networks, several optimization algorithms and wavelet transform. The method’s validation was made using different real case studies. The subsequent comparison (accuracy wise) with published results, in reference journals, validated the proposed hybrid method suitability.O processo de liberalização e desregulação dos mercados de energia elétrica, obrigou os diversos participantes a acomodar uma série de desafios, entre os quais: a acumulação considerável de nova capacidade de geração proveniente de origem renovável (fundamentalmente energia eólica), a imprevisibilidade associada a estas novas formas de geração e novos padrões de consumo. Resultando num aumento da volatilidade associada aos preços de energia elétrica (como é exemplo o mercado ibérico). Dado o quadro competitivo em que os agentes de mercado operam, a existência de técnicas computacionais de previsão eficientes, constituí um fator diferenciador. É com base nestas previsões que se definem estratégias de licitação e se efetua um planeamento da operação eficaz dos sistemas de geração que, em conjunto com um melhor aproveitamento da capacidade de transmissão instalada, permite maximizar os lucros, realizando ao mesmo tempo um melhor aproveitamento dos recursos energéticos. Esta dissertação apresenta um novo método híbrido para a previsão da carga e dos preços da energia elétrica, para um horizonte temporal a 24 horas. O método baseia-se num esquema de otimização que reúne os esforços de diferentes técnicas, nomeadamente redes neuronais artificiais, diversos algoritmos de otimização e da transformada de wavelet. A validação do método foi feita em diferentes casos de estudo reais. A posterior comparação com resultados já publicados em revistas de referência, revelou um excelente desempenho do método hibrido proposto

Energy Management Systems for Smart Electric Railway Networks: A Methodological Review

Energy shortage is one of the major concerns in today’s world. As a consumer of electrical energy, the electric railway system (ERS), due to trains, stations, and commercial users, intakes an enormous amount of electricity. Increasing greenhouse gases (GHG) and CO2 emissions, in addition, have drawn the regard of world leaders as among the most dangerous threats at present; based on research in this field, the transportation sector contributes significantly to this pollution. Railway Energy Management Systems (REMS) are a modern green solution that not only tackle these problems but also, by implementing REMS, electricity can be sold to the grid market. Researchers have been trying to reduce the daily operational costs of smart railway stations, mitigating power quality issues, considering the traction uncertainties and stochastic behavior of Renewable Energy Resources (RERs) and Energy Storage Systems (ESSs), which has a significant impact on total operational cost. In this context, the first main objective of this article is to take a comprehensive review of the literature on REMS and examine closely all the works that have been carried out in this area, and also the REMS architecture and configurations are clarified as well. The secondary objective of this article is to analyze both traditional and modern methods utilized in REMS and conduct a thorough comparison of them. In order to provide a comprehensive analysis in this field, over 120 publications have been compiled, listed, and categorized. The study highlights the potential of leveraging RERs for cost reduction and sustainability. Evaluating factors including speed, simplicity, efficiency, accuracy, and ability to handle stochastic behavior and constraints, the strengths and limitations of each optimization method are elucidated

Fuel cell-based CHP system modelling using Artificial Neural Networks aimed at developing techno-economic efficiency maximization control systems

This paper focuses on the modelling of the performance of a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC)-based cogeneration system to integrate it in hybrid and/or connected to grid systems and enable the optimization of the techno-economic efficiency of the system in which it is integrated. To this end, experimental tests on a PEMFC-based cogeneration system of 600 Wof electrical power have been performed to train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Once the learning of the ANN, it has been able to emulate real operating conditions, such as the cooling water out temperature and the hydrogen consumption of the PEMFC depending on several variables, such as the electric power demanded, temperature of the inlet water flow to the cooling circuit, cooling water flow and the heat demanded to the CHP system. After analysing the results, it is concluded that the presented model reproduces with enough accuracy and precision the performance of the experimented PEMFC, thus enabling the use of the model and the ANN learning methodology to model other PEMFC-based cogeneration systems and integrate them in techno-economic efficiency optimization control systems

Principles of Neuromorphic Photonics

In an age overrun with information, the ability to process reams of data has become crucial. The demand for data will continue to grow as smart gadgets multiply and become increasingly integrated into our daily lives. Next-generation industries in artificial intelligence services and high-performance computing are so far supported by microelectronic platforms. These data-intensive enterprises rely on continual improvements in hardware. Their prospects are running up against a stark reality: conventional one-size-fits-all solutions offered by digital electronics can no longer satisfy this need, as Moore's law (exponential hardware scaling), interconnection density, and the von Neumann architecture reach their limits. With its superior speed and reconfigurability, analog photonics can provide some relief to these problems; however, complex applications of analog photonics have remained largely unexplored due to the absence of a robust photonic integration industry. Recently, the landscape for commercially-manufacturable photonic chips has been changing rapidly and now promises to achieve economies of scale previously enjoyed solely by microelectronics. The scientific community has set out to build bridges between the domains of photonic device physics and neural networks, giving rise to the field of \emph{neuromorphic photonics}. This article reviews the recent progress in integrated neuromorphic photonics. We provide an overview of neuromorphic computing, discuss the associated technology (microelectronic and photonic) platforms and compare their metric performance. We discuss photonic neural network approaches and challenges for integrated neuromorphic photonic processors while providing an in-depth description of photonic neurons and a candidate interconnection architecture. We conclude with a future outlook of neuro-inspired photonic processing.Comment: 28 pages, 19 figure