Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events

Stacked Ensemble Model for Tropical Cyclone Path Prediction

Tropical cyclones (TC) are intense circular storms that cause significant economic and human losses in the coastal areas of the equatorial region. Various statistical models have been proposed to forecast the potential path of TC. This study proposes a stacked ensemble-based method to enhance the effectiveness of predicting TC paths using temporal data. The proposed method can be divided into two phases. In the first phase, the Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) models are optimized with stacked layers to determine the most effective configuration for Stacked LSTM and Stacked GRU. In the second phase, k-fold cross-validation is employed to construct multiple Stacked LSTM and Stacked GRU models, and a Meta learner is used to ensemble the predictions from these models. We evaluate the performance of our proposed model using the temporal China Meteorological Administration (CMA) dataset and compare its results with those obtained from other ensemble and non-ensemble techniques. The results demonstrate a significant reduction in mean square error and variance achieved by the proposed model. The code is available on GitHub: TC path prediction©2023 Authors. Published by IEEE. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Forecasting formation of a Tropical Cyclone Using Reanalysis Data

The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research, accurately predicting tropical cyclone formation remains a challenging task. While the existing numerical models have inherent limitations, the machine learning models fail to capture the spatial and temporal dimensions of the causal factors behind TC formation. In this study, a deep learning model has been proposed that can forecast the formation of a tropical cyclone with a lead time of up to 60 hours with high accuracy. The model uses the high-resolution reanalysis data ERA5 (ECMWF reanalysis 5th generation), and best track data IBTrACS (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship) to forecast tropical cyclone formation in six ocean basins of the world. For 60 hours lead time the models achieve an accuracy in the range of 86.9% - 92.9% across the six ocean basins. The model takes about 5-15 minutes of training time depending on the ocean basin, and the amount of data used and can predict within seconds, thereby making it suitable for real-life usage

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems

Spatial-Temporal Data Mining for Ocean Science: Data, Methodologies, and Opportunities

With the increasing amount of spatial-temporal~(ST) ocean data, numerous spatial-temporal data mining (STDM) studies have been conducted to address various oceanic issues, e.g., climate forecasting and disaster warning. Compared with typical ST data (e.g., traffic data), ST ocean data is more complicated with some unique characteristics, e.g., diverse regionality and high sparsity. These characteristics make it difficult to design and train STDM models. Unfortunately, an overview of these studies is still missing, hindering computer scientists to identify the research issues in ocean while discouraging researchers in ocean science from applying advanced STDM techniques. To remedy this situation, we provide a comprehensive survey to summarize existing STDM studies in ocean. Concretely, we first summarize the widely-used ST ocean datasets and identify their unique characteristics. Then, typical ST ocean data quality enhancement techniques are discussed. Next, we classify existing STDM studies for ocean into four types of tasks, i.e., prediction, event detection, pattern mining, and anomaly detection, and elaborate the techniques for these tasks. Finally, promising research opportunities are highlighted. This survey will help scientists from the fields of both computer science and ocean science have a better understanding of the fundamental concepts, key techniques, and open challenges of STDM in ocean

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Hurricane Forecasting: A Novel Multimodal Machine Learning Framework

This paper describes a machine learning (ML) framework for tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasting, combining multiple distinct ML techniques and utilizing diverse data sources. Our framework, which we refer to as Hurricast (HURR), is built upon the combination of distinct data processing techniques using gradient-boosted trees and novel encoder-decoder architectures, including CNN, GRU and Transformers components. We propose a deep-feature extractor methodology to mix spatial-temporal data with statistical data efficiently. Our multimodal framework unleashes the potential of making forecasts based on a wide range of data sources, including historical storm data, and visual data such as reanalysis atmospheric images. We evaluate our models with current operational forecasts in North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins on 2016-2019 for 24-hour lead time, and show our models consistently outperform statistical-dynamical models and compete with the best dynamical models, while computing forecasts in seconds. Furthermore, the inclusion of Hurricast into an operational forecast consensus model leads to a significant improvement of 5% - 15% over NHC's official forecast, thus highlighting the complementary properties with existing approaches. In summary, our work demonstrates that combining different data sources and distinct machine learning methodologies can lead to superior tropical cyclone forecasting. We hope that this work opens the door for further use of machine learning in meteorological forecasting.Comment: Under revision by the AMS' Weather and Forecasting journa