Goodness-of-fit criteria for survival data

The definition of an appropriate measure for goodness-of-fit in case of survival data comparable to R^2 in linear regression is difficult due to censored observations. In this paper, a variety of answers based on different residuals and variance of survival curves are presented together with a newly introduced criterion. In univariate simulation studies, the presented criteria are examined with respect to their dependence on the value of the coefficient associated with the covariate; underlying covariate distribution and censoring percentage in the data. Investigation of the relations between the values of the different criteria indicates strong dependencies, although the absolute values show high discrepancies and the criteria building processes differ substantially

Measurement Invariance of the Internet Addiction Test Among Hong Kong, Japanese, and Malaysian Adolescents

There has been increased research examining the psychometric properties on the Internet Addiction Test across different ages and populations. This population-based study examined the psychometric properties using Confirmatory Factory Analysis and measurement invariance using Item Response Theory (IRT) of the IAT in adolescents from three Asian countries. In the Asian Adolescent Risk Behavior Survey (AARBS), 2,535 secondary school students (55.91% girls) in Grade 7 to Grade 13 (Mean age = 15.61 years; SD=1.56) from Hong Kong (n=844), Japan (n=744), and Malaysia (n=947) completed a survey on their Internet use that incorporated the IAT scale. A nested hierarchy of hypotheses concerning IAT cross-country invariance was tested using multi-group confirmatory factor analysis. Replicating past finding in Hong Kong adolescents, the construct of IAT is best represented by a second-order three-factor structure in Malaysian and Japanese adolescents. Configural, metric, scalar, and partial strict factorial invariance was established across the three samples. No cross-country differences on Internet addiction were detected at latent mean level. This study provided empirical support to the IAT as a reliable and factorially stable instrument, and valid to be used across Asian adolescent populations

A goodness-of-fit test for parametric and semi-parametric models in multiresponse regression

We propose an empirical likelihood test that is able to test the goodness of fit of a class of parametric and semi-parametric multiresponse regression models. The class includes as special cases fully parametric models; semi-parametric models, like the multiindex and the partially linear models; and models with shape constraints. Another feature of the test is that it allows both the response variable and the covariate be multivariate, which means that multiple regression curves can be tested simultaneously. The test also allows the presence of infinite-dimensional nuisance functions in the model to be tested. It is shown that the empirical likelihood test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under certain mild conditions and permits a wild bootstrap calibration. Despite the large size of the class of models to be considered, the empirical likelihood test enjoys good power properties against departures from a hypothesized model within the class.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/09-BEJ208 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

A flexible regression model for count data

Poisson regression is a popular tool for modeling count data and is applied in a vast array of applications from the social to the physical sciences and beyond. Real data, however, are often over- or under-dispersed and, thus, not conducive to Poisson regression. We propose a regression model based on the Conway--Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution to address this problem. The COM-Poisson regression generalizes the well-known Poisson and logistic regression models, and is suitable for fitting count data with a wide range of dispersion levels. With a GLM approach that takes advantage of exponential family properties, we discuss model estimation, inference, diagnostics, and interpretation, and present a test for determining the need for a COM-Poisson regression over a standard Poisson regression. We compare the COM-Poisson to several alternatives and illustrate its advantages and usefulness using three data sets with varying dispersion.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS306 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Seasonal prediction of lake inflows and rainfall in a hydro-electricity catchment, Waitaki river, New Zealand

The Waitaki River is located in the centre of the South Island of New Zealand, and hydro-electricity generated on the river accounts for 35-40% of New Zealand's electricity. Low inflows in 1992 and 2001 resulted in the threat of power blackouts. Improved seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasts will result in the better management of the water used in hydro-generation on a seasonal basis. Researchers have stated that two key directions in the fields of seasonal rainfall and streamflow forecasting are to a) decrease the spatial scale of forecast products, and b) tailor forecast products to end-user needs, so as to provide more relevant and targeted forecasts. Several season-ahead lake inflow and rainfall forecast models were calibrated for the Waitaki river catchment using statistical techniques to quantify relationships between land-ocean-atmosphere state variables and seasonally lagged inflows and rainfall. Techniques included principal components analysis and multiple linear regression, with cross-validation techniques applied to estimate model error and randomization techniques used to establish the significance of the skill of the models. Many of the models calibrated predict rainfall and inflows better than random chance and better than the long-term mean as a predictor. When compared to the range of all probable inflow seasonal totals (based on the 80-year recorded history in the catchment), 95% confidence limits around most model predictions offer significant skill. These models explain up to 19% of the variance in season-ahead rainfall and inflows in this catchment. Seasonal rainfall and inflow forecasting on a single catchment scale and focussed to end-user needs is possible with some skill in the South Island of New Zealand