Cost-Bounded Active Classification Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

Active classification, i.e., the sequential decision-making process aimed at data acquisition for classification purposes, arises naturally in many applications, including medical diagnosis, intrusion detection, and object tracking. In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying dynamical systems with a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the dynamical system, and observe its reactions so that the true model is determined efficiently with high confidence. To this end, we present a decision-theoretic framework based on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). The proposed framework relies on assigning a classification belief (a probability distribution) to each candidate MDP model. Given an initial belief, some misclassification probabilities, a cost bound, and a finite time horizon, we design POMDP strategies leading to classification decisions. We present two different approaches to find such strategies. The first approach computes the optimal strategy "exactly" using value iteration. To overcome the computational complexity of finding exact solutions, the second approach is based on adaptive sampling to approximate the optimal probability of reaching a classification decision. We illustrate the proposed methodology using two examples from medical diagnosis and intruder detection

AI Solutions for MDS: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Misuse Detection and Localisation in Telecommunication Environments

This report considers the application of Articial Intelligence (AI) techniques to the problem of misuse detection and misuse localisation within telecommunications environments. A broad survey of techniques is provided, that covers inter alia rule based systems, model-based systems, case based reasoning, pattern matching, clustering and feature extraction, articial neural networks, genetic algorithms, arti cial immune systems, agent based systems, data mining and a variety of hybrid approaches. The report then considers the central issue of event correlation, that is at the heart of many misuse detection and localisation systems. The notion of being able to infer misuse by the correlation of individual temporally distributed events within a multiple data stream environment is explored, and a range of techniques, covering model based approaches, `programmed' AI and machine learning paradigms. It is found that, in general, correlation is best achieved via rule based approaches, but that these suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as the difculty of developing and maintaining an appropriate knowledge base, and the lack of ability to generalise from known misuses to new unseen misuses. Two distinct approaches are evident. One attempts to encode knowledge of known misuses, typically within rules, and use this to screen events. This approach cannot generally detect misuses for which it has not been programmed, i.e. it is prone to issuing false negatives. The other attempts to `learn' the features of event patterns that constitute normal behaviour, and, by observing patterns that do not match expected behaviour, detect when a misuse has occurred. This approach is prone to issuing false positives, i.e. inferring misuse from innocent patterns of behaviour that the system was not trained to recognise. Contemporary approaches are seen to favour hybridisation, often combining detection or localisation mechanisms for both abnormal and normal behaviour, the former to capture known cases of misuse, the latter to capture unknown cases. In some systems, these mechanisms even work together to update each other to increase detection rates and lower false positive rates. It is concluded that hybridisation offers the most promising future direction, but that a rule or state based component is likely to remain, being the most natural approach to the correlation of complex events. The challenge, then, is to mitigate the weaknesses of canonical programmed systems such that learning, generalisation and adaptation are more readily facilitated

Detection of Security and Dependability Threats: A Belief Based Reasoning Approach

Monitoring the preservation of security and dependability (S&D) properties during the operation of systems at runtime is an important verification measure that can increase system resilience. However it does not always provide sufficient scope for taking control actions against violations as it only detects problems after they occur. In this paper, we describe a proactive monitoring approach that detects potential violations of S&D properties, called ldquothreatsrdquo, and discuss the results of an initial evaluation of it