Rebalancing of exchange traded funds in stock market using option trading strategies

Motivation: The finance and academic industries are highly discussed in the stock market trading domain. The increase in economic globalization shows the connection among stock markets in different countries, which produces the effect of risk conduction in the market. Forecasting the direction of every day’s stock market return is important and challenging. The growing complexity and dynamic features in stock markets are difficult in the financial industry. The inflexible trading method developed by financial practitioners utilized a larger amount of stock market features and is failed to achieve a satisfactory result in every condition of the market. Further, the existing data mining approaches are incomplete and inefficient. Aim: To overcome the issues in stock and problem of existing methods, proposed option trading strategies for rebalancing Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the stock market. Rebalancing-ETF measure the volatility of the stock to track the error of model and rebalance the threshold quality to improve the trade. The proposed method increases the order of threshold quantity to rebalance the trade. Results: The result showed that the minimum orders increases in rebalancing trade, which reduces the impact of price formations in market. The tracking error occurs when the larger quantity of threshold value reduces the quantity. Then, the markets are changed significantly when the Net Asset Values (NAV) of rebalancing ETF increases

A Survey of Forex and Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning

The prediction of stock and foreign exchange (Forex) had always been a hot and profitable area of study. Deep learning application had proven to yields better accuracy and return in the field of financial prediction and forecasting. In this survey we selected papers from the DBLP database for comparison and analysis. We classified papers according to different deep learning methods, which included: Convolutional neural network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Deep neural network (DNN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Reinforcement Learning, and other deep learning methods such as HAN, NLP, and Wavenet. Furthermore, this paper reviewed the dataset, variable, model, and results of each article. The survey presented the results through the most used performance metrics: RMSE, MAPE, MAE, MSE, accuracy, Sharpe ratio, and return rate. We identified that recent models that combined LSTM with other methods, for example, DNN, are widely researched. Reinforcement learning and other deep learning method yielded great returns and performances. We conclude that in recent years the trend of using deep-learning based method for financial modeling is exponentially rising

A Deep Learning based Stock Trading Model with 2-D CNN Trend Detection

IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (IEEE SSCI) (2017 : Honolulu, HI)The success of convolutional neural networks in the field of computer vision has attracted the attention of many researchers from other fields. One of the research areas in which neural networks is actively used is financial forecasting. In this paper, we propose a novel method for predicting stock price movements using CNN. To avoid the high volatility of the market and to maximize the profit, ETFs are used as primary financial assets. We extract commonly used trend indicators and momentum indicators from financial time series data and use these as our features. Adopting a sliding window approach, we generate our images by taking snapshots that are bounded by the window over a daily period. We then perform daily predictions, namely, regression for predicting the ETF prices and classification for predicting the movement of the prices on the next day, which can be modified to estimate weekly or monthly trends. To increase the number of images, we use numerous ETFs. Finally, we evaluate our method by performing paper trading and calculating the final capital. We also compare our method's performance to commonly used classical trading strategies. Our results indicate that we can predict the next day's prices with 72% accuracy and end up with 5:1 of our initial capital, taking realistic values of transaction costs into account

Mid-Price Movement Prediction in Limit Order Books Using Feature Engineering and Machine Learning

The increasing complexity of financial trading in recent years revealed the need for methods that can capture its underlying dynamics. An efficient way to organize this chaotic system is by contracting limit order book ordering mechanisms that operate under price and time filters. Limit order book can be analyzed using linear and nonlinear models. The thesis develops novelmethods for the identification of limit order book characteristics which provide traders and market makers an information edge in their trading. A good proxy for traders and market makers is the prediction of mid-price movement, which is the main target of this thesis. The contributions of this thesis are categorized chronologically into three parts. The first part refers to the introduction in the literature of the first publicly available limit order book dataset for high-frequency trading for the task of mid-price movement prediction. This dataset comes together with the development of an experimental protocol that utilizes methods inspired by ridge regression and a single layer feed-forward neural network as classifiers. These classifiers use state-of-the-art limit order book features as inputs for the target task. The next contribution of this thesis is the use and development of a wide range of technical and quantitative indicators for the task of mid-price movement prediction via an extensive feature selection process. This feature selection process identifies which features improve predictability performance. The results suggest that the newly introduced quantitative feature based on an adaptive logistic regression model for online learning was selected first according to several criteria. These criteria operate according to entropy, linear discriminant analysis, and least mean square error. The third contribution is the introduction of econometric features as inputs to deep learning models for the task of mid-price movement prediction. An extensive comparison against other state-of-the-art hand-crafted features and fully automated feature extraction processes is provided. Furthermore, a new experimental protocol is developed for the task of mid-price prediction, to overcome the problem of time irregularities, which characterizes high-frequency data. Results suggest that advanced hand-crafted features such as econometric indicators can predict movements of proxies, such as mid-price