Multi-Output Gaussian Processes for Crowdsourced Traffic Data Imputation

Traffic speed data imputation is a fundamental challenge for data-driven transport analysis. In recent years, with the ubiquity of GPS-enabled devices and the widespread use of crowdsourcing alternatives for the collection of traffic data, transportation professionals increasingly look to such user-generated data for many analysis, planning, and decision support applications. However, due to the mechanics of the data collection process, crowdsourced traffic data such as probe-vehicle data is highly prone to missing observations, making accurate imputation crucial for the success of any application that makes use of that type of data. In this article, we propose the use of multi-output Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the complex spatial and temporal patterns in crowdsourced traffic data. While the Bayesian nonparametric formalism of GPs allows us to model observation uncertainty, the multi-output extension based on convolution processes effectively enables us to capture complex spatial dependencies between nearby road segments. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic speed data or "probe vehicle data" for several locations in Copenhagen, the proposed approach is empirically shown to significantly outperform popular state-of-the-art imputation methods.Comment: 10 pages, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 201

A Joint Traffic Flow Estimation and Prediction Approach for Urban Networks

Classical methods of traffic flow prediction with missing data are generally implemented in two sequential stages: a) imputing the missing data by certain imputation methods such as kNN, PPCA based methods etc.; b) using parametric or non-parametric methods to predict the future traffic flow with the completed data. However, the errors generated in missing data imputation stage will be accumulated into prediction stage, and thus will negatively influence the prediction performance when missing rate becomes large. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a Joint Traffic Flow Estimation and Prediction (JT-FEP) approach, which considers the missing data as additional unknown network parameters during a deep learning model training process. By updating missing data and the other network parameters via backward propagation, the model training error can generally be evenly distributed across the missing data and future data, thus reducing the error propagation. We conduct extensive experiments for two missing patterns i.e. Completely Missing at Random (CMAR) and Not Missing at Random (NMAR) with various missing rates. The experimental results demonstrate the superiority of JTFEP over existing methods

Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data

Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks.Comment: 22 pages, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies (Elsevier

Classification of Occluded Objects using Fast Recurrent Processing

Recurrent neural networks are powerful tools for handling incomplete data problems in computer vision, thanks to their significant generative capabilities. However, the computational demand for these algorithms is too high to work in real time, without specialized hardware or software solutions. In this paper, we propose a framework for augmenting recurrent processing capabilities into a feedforward network without sacrificing much from computational efficiency. We assume a mixture model and generate samples of the last hidden layer according to the class decisions of the output layer, modify the hidden layer activity using the samples, and propagate to lower layers. For visual occlusion problem, the iterative procedure emulates feedforward-feedback loop, filling-in the missing hidden layer activity with meaningful representations. The proposed algorithm is tested on a widely used dataset, and shown to achieve 2$\times$ improvement in classification accuracy for occluded objects. When compared to Restricted Boltzmann Machines, our algorithm shows superior performance for occluded object classification.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1409.8576 by other author