Neurophysiological Measures and Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD): Hypothesizing Links between Clinical Severity Index and Molecular Neurobiological Patterns

In 1987, Cloninger proposed a clinical description and classification of different personality traits genetically defined and independent from each other. Moreover, he elaborated a specific test the TCI to investigate these traits/states. The study of craving in Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) assumed a greater significance, since ever more data seems to suggest a direct correlation between high levels of craving and a higher risk of relapse in alcoholics. Thus, our study aim is to explore the possible correlations among TCI linked molecular neurobiological pattern (s), craving and alcohol addiction severity measures in a sample of Italian alcoholics

Risk Assessment of a Wind Turbine: A New FMECA-Based Tool With RPN Threshold Estimation

A wind turbine is a complex system used to convert the kinetic energy of the wind into electrical energy. During the turbine design phase, a risk assessment is mandatory to reduce the machine downtime and the Operation & Maintenance cost and to ensure service continuity. This paper proposes a procedure based on Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis to take into account every possible criticality that could lead to a turbine shutdown. Currently, a standard procedure to be applied for evaluation of the risk priority number threshold is still not available. Trying to fill this need, this paper proposes a new approach for the Risk Priority Number (RPN) prioritization based on a statistical analysis and compares the proposed method with the only three quantitative prioritization techniques found in literature. The proposed procedure was applied to the electrical and electronic components included in a Spanish 2 MW on-shore wind turbine

A modified flood severity assessment for enhanced decision support: application to the Boscastle flash flood of 2004

A modified flash flood severity assessment is presented, based on scoring a set of factors according to their potential for generating extreme catchment-scale flooding. Improvements are made to the index through incorporation of parameter uncertainties, managing data absence, and clearer graphical communication. The motive for proposing these changes is to better inform flood managers during the development of a flash flood that may require an emergency response. This modified decision-support system is demonstrated for the Boscastle flood of 2004 and other historical floods in the United Kingdom. For Boscastle, the extreme nature of the flood is underestimated, which is likely to be due to the lack of sophistication in weighting flood parameters. However, the proposed amendments are able to rapidly reflect the reliability of a catchment severity rating, which may further enhance this technique as a decision-support tool alongside radar observations of localized storms

EEG analytics for early detection of autism spectrum disorder: a data-driven approach

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex and heterogeneous disorder, diagnosed on the basis of behavioral symptoms during the second year of life or later. Finding scalable biomarkers for early detection is challenging because of the variability in presentation of the disorder and the need for simple measurements that could be implemented routinely during well-baby checkups. EEG is a relatively easy-to-use, low cost brain measurement tool that is being increasingly explored as a potential clinical tool for monitoring atypical brain development. EEG measurements were collected from 99 infants with an older sibling diagnosed with ASD, and 89 low risk controls, beginning at 3 months of age and continuing until 36 months of age. Nonlinear features were computed from EEG signals and used as input to statistical learning methods. Prediction of the clinical diagnostic outcome of ASD or not ASD was highly accurate when using EEG measurements from as early as 3 months of age. Specificity, sensitivity and PPV were high, exceeding 95% at some ages. Prediction of ADOS calibrated severity scores for all infants in the study using only EEG data taken as early as 3 months of age was strongly correlated with the actual measured scores. This suggests that useful digital biomarkers might be extracted from EEG measurements.This research was supported by National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) grant R21 MH 093753 (to WJB), National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders (NIDCD) grant R21 DC08647 (to HTF), NIDCD grant R01 DC 10290 (to HTF and CAN) and a grant from the Simons Foundation (to CAN, HTF, and WJB). We are especially grateful to the staff and students who worked on the study and to the families who participated. (R21 MH 093753 - National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH); R21 DC08647 - National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders (NIDCD); R01 DC 10290 - NIDCD; Simons Foundation)Published versio

Burn wound classification model using spatial frequency-domain imaging and machine learning.

Accurate assessment of burn severity is critical for wound care and the course of treatment. Delays in classification translate to delays in burn management, increasing the risk of scarring and infection. To this end, numerous imaging techniques have been used to examine tissue properties to infer burn severity. Spatial frequency-domain imaging (SFDI) has also been used to characterize burns based on the relationships between histologic observations and changes in tissue properties. Recently, machine learning has been used to classify burns by combining optical features from multispectral or hyperspectral imaging. Rather than employ models of light propagation to deduce tissue optical properties, we investigated the feasibility of using SFDI reflectance data at multiple spatial frequencies, with a support vector machine (SVM) classifier, to predict severity in a porcine model of graded burns. Calibrated reflectance images were collected using SFDI at eight wavelengths (471 to 851 nm) and five spatial frequencies (0 to 0.2  mm  -  1). Three models were built from subsets of this initial dataset. The first subset included data taken at all wavelengths with the planar (0  mm  -  1) spatial frequency, the second comprised data at all wavelengths and spatial frequencies, and the third used all collected data at values relative to unburned tissue. These data subsets were used to train and test cubic SVM models, and compared against burn status 28 days after injury. Model accuracy was established through leave-one-out cross-validation testing. The model based on images obtained at all wavelengths and spatial frequencies predicted burn severity at 24 h with 92.5% accuracy. The model composed of all values relative to unburned skin was 94.4% accurate. By comparison, the model that employed only planar illumination was 88.8% accurate. This investigation suggests that the combination of SFDI with machine learning has potential for accurately predicting burn severity

Analysis of operational risk of banks – catastrophe modelling

Nowadays financial institutions due to regulation and internal motivations care more intensively on their risks. Besides previously dominating market and credit risk new trend is to handle operational risk systematically. Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. First we show the basic features of operational risk and its modelling and regulatory approaches, and after we will analyse operational risk in an own developed simulation model framework. Our approach is based on the analysis of latent risk process instead of manifest risk process, which widely popular in risk literature. In our model the latent risk process is a stochastic risk process, so called Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean reversion process. In the model framework we define catastrophe as breach of a critical barrier by the process. We analyse the distributions of catastrophe frequency, severity and first time to hit, not only for single process, but for dual process as well. Based on our first results we could not falsify the Poisson feature of frequency, and long tail feature of severity. Distribution of “first time to hit” requires more sophisticated analysis. At the end of paper we examine advantages of simulation based forecasting, and finally we concluding with the possible, further research directions to be done in the future

Early hospital mortality prediction using vital signals

Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are time-consuming and need to be processed. In this paper, we propose a novel method to predict mortality using features extracted from the heart signals of patients within the first hour of ICU admission. In order to predict the risk, quantitative features have been computed based on the heart rate signals of ICU patients. Each signal is described in terms of 12 statistical and signal-based features. The extracted features are fed into eight classifiers: decision tree, linear discriminant, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, boosted trees, Gaussian SVM, and K-nearest neighborhood (K-NN). To derive insight into the performance of the proposed method, several experiments have been conducted using the well-known clinical dataset named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The experimental results demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in terms of precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The decision tree classifier satisfies both accuracy and interpretability better than the other classifiers, producing an F1-score and AUC equal to 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. It indicates that heart rate signals can be used for predicting mortality in patients in the ICU, achieving a comparable performance with existing predictions that rely on high dimensional features from clinical records which need to be processed and may contain missing information.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, preprint of accepted paper in IEEE&ACM CHASE 2018 and published in Smart Health journa

Can the Heinrich ratio be used to predict harm from medication errors?

The purpose of this study was to establish whether, for medication errors, there exists a fixed Heinrich ratio between the number of incidents which did not result in harm, the number that caused minor harm, and the number that caused serious harm. If this were the case then it would be very useful in estimating any changes in harm following an intervention. Serious harm resulting from medication errors is relatively rare, so it can take a great deal of time and resource to detect a significant change. If the Heinrich ratio exists for medication errors, then it would be possible, and far easier, to measure the much more frequent number of incidents that did not result in harm and the extent to which they changed following an intervention; any reduction in harm could be extrapolated from this

Assessing knee OA severity with CNN attention-based end-to-end architectures

This work proposes a novel end-to-end convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture to automatically quantify the severity of knee osteoarthritis (OA) using X-Ray images, which incorporates trainable attention modules acting as unsupervised fine-grained detectors of the region of interest (ROI). The proposed attention modules can be applied at different levels and scales across any CNN pipeline helping the network to learn relevant attention patterns over the most informative parts of the image at different resolutions. We test the proposed attention mechanism on existing state-of-the-art CNN architectures as our base models, achieving promising results on the benchmark knee OA datasets from the osteoarthritis initiative (OAI) and multicenter osteoarthritis study (MOST).Postprint (published version