Statistical Traffic State Analysis in Large-scale Transportation Networks Using Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Statistical traffic data analysis is a hot topic in traffic management and control. In this field, current research progresses focus on analyzing traffic flows of individual links or local regions in a transportation network. Less attention are paid to the global view of traffic states over the entire network, which is important for modeling large-scale traffic scenes. Our aim is precisely to propose a new methodology for extracting spatio-temporal traffic patterns, ultimately for modeling large-scale traffic dynamics, and long-term traffic forecasting. We attack this issue by utilizing Locality-Preserving Non-negative Matrix Factorization (LPNMF) to derive low-dimensional representation of network-level traffic states. Clustering is performed on the compact LPNMF projections to unveil typical spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of network-level traffic states. We have tested the proposed method on simulated traffic data generated for a large-scale road network, and reported experimental results validate the ability of our approach for extracting meaningful large-scale space-time traffic patterns. Furthermore, the derived clustering results provide an intuitive understanding of spatial-temporal characteristics of traffic flows in the large-scale network, and a basis for potential long-term forecasting.Comment: IET Intelligent Transport Systems (2013

Deep Learning with Long Short-Term Memory for Time Series Prediction

Time series prediction can be generalized as a process that extracts useful information from historical records and then determines future values. Learning long-range dependencies that are embedded in time series is often an obstacle for most algorithms, whereas Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) solutions, as a specific kind of scheme in deep learning, promise to effectively overcome the problem. In this article, we first give a brief introduction to the structure and forward propagation mechanism of the LSTM model. Then, aiming at reducing the considerable computing cost of LSTM, we put forward the Random Connectivity LSTM (RCLSTM) model and test it by predicting traffic and user mobility in telecommunication networks. Compared to LSTM, RCLSTM is formed via stochastic connectivity between neurons, which achieves a significant breakthrough in the architecture formation of neural networks. In this way, the RCLSTM model exhibits a certain level of sparsity, which leads to an appealing decrease in the computational complexity and makes the RCLSTM model become more applicable in latency-stringent application scenarios. In the field of telecommunication networks, the prediction of traffic series and mobility traces could directly benefit from this improvement as we further demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of RCLSTM is comparable to that of the conventional LSTM no matter how we change the number of training samples or the length of input sequences.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 14 reference

Short-term Demand Forecasting for Online Car-hailing Services using Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the crucial issues in intelligent transportation system, which is an important part of smart cities. Accurate predictions can enable both the drivers and the passengers to make better decisions about their travel route, departure time and travel origin selection, which can be helpful in traffic management. Multiple models and algorithms based on time series prediction and machine learning were applied to this issue and achieved acceptable results. Recently, the availability of sufficient data and computational power, motivates us to improve the prediction accuracy via deep-learning approaches. Recurrent neural networks have become one of the most popular methods for time series forecasting, however, due to the variety of these networks, the question that which type is the most appropriate one for this task remains unsolved. In this paper, we use three kinds of recurrent neural networks including simple RNN units, GRU and LSTM neural network to predict short-term traffic flow. The dataset from TAP30 Corporation is used for building the models and comparing RNNs with several well-known models, such as DEMA, LASSO and XGBoost. The results show that all three types of RNNs outperform the others, however, more simple RNNs such as simple recurrent units and GRU perform work better than LSTM in terms of accuracy and training time.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1706.06279, arXiv:1804.04176 by other author