Forecasting Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Application of Statistical and AI Models

This paper evaluates several artificial intelligence and classical algorithms on their ability of forecasting the monthly yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds from a set of four economic indicators. Due to the complexity of the prediction problem, the task represents a challenging test for the algorithms under evaluation. At the same time, the study is of particular significance for the important and paradigmatic role played by the US market in the world economy. Four data-driven artificial intelligence approaches are considered, namely, a manually built fuzzy logic model, a machine learned fuzzy logic model, a self-organising map model and a multi-layer perceptron model. Their performance is compared with the performance of two classical approaches, namely, a statistical ARIMA model and an econometric error correction model. The algorithms are evaluated on a complete series of end-month US 10-year Treasury bonds yields and economic indicators from 1986:1 to 2004:12. In terms of prediction accuracy and reliability of the modelling procedure, the best results are obtained by the three parametric regression algorithms, namely the econometric, the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron model. Due to the sparseness of the learning data samples, the manual and the automatic fuzzy logic approaches fail to follow with adequate precision the range of variations of the US 10-year Treasury bonds. For similar reasons, the self-organising map model gives an unsatisfactory performance. Analysis of the results indicates that the econometric model has a slight edge over the statistical and the multi-layer perceptron models. This suggests that pure data-driven induction may not fully capture the complicated mechanisms ruling the changes in interest rates. Overall, the prediction accuracy of the best models is only marginally better than the prediction accuracy of a basic one-step lag predictor. This result highlights the difficulty of the modelling task and, in general, the difficulty of building reliable predictors for financial markets.interest rates; forecasting; neural networks; fuzzy logic.

MultiModN- Multimodal, Multi-Task, Interpretable Modular Networks

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.Comment: Accepted as a full paper at NeurIPS 2023 in New Orleans, US

QuantNet: transferring learning across trading strategies

Systematic financial trading strategies account for over 80% of trade volume in equities and a large chunk of the foreign exchange market. In spite of the availability of data from multiple markets, current approaches in trading rely mainly on learning trading strategies per individual market. In this paper, we take a step towards developing fully end-to-end global trading strategies that leverage systematic trends to produce superior market-specific trading strategies. We introduce QuantNet: an architecture that learns market-agnostic trends and use these to learn superior market-specific trading strategies. Each market-specific model is composed of an encoder-decoder pair. The encoder transforms market-specific data into an abstract latent representation that is processed by a global model shared by all markets, while the decoder learns a market-specific trading strategy based on both local and global information from the market-specific encoder and the global model. QuantNet uses recent advances in transfer and meta-learning, where market-specific parameters are free to specialize on the problem at hand, whilst market-agnostic parameters are driven to capture signals from all markets. By integrating over idiosyncratic market data we can learn general transferable dynamics, avoiding the problem of overfitting to produce strategies with superior returns. We evaluate QuantNet on historical data across 3103 assets in 58 global equity markets. Against the top performing baseline, QuantNet yielded 51% higher Sharpe and 69% Calmar ratios. In addition, we show the benefits of our approach over the non-transfer learning variant, with improvements of 15% and 41% in Sharpe and Calmar ratios. A link to QuantNet code is made available in the appendix

Comparison of machine learning approaches for classification of invoices

Machine learning has become one of the leading sciences governing modern world. Various disciplines specifically neural networks have recently gained a lot of attention due to its widespread applications. With the recent advances in the technology the resulting big data has augmented the need of bigger means of storage, analysis and henceforth utilization. This not only implies the efficient use of available techniques but suggests surge in the development of new algorithms and techniques. In this project, three different machine learning approaches were implemented utilizing the open source library of keras on TensorFlow as a proof of concept for the task of intelligent invoice automation. The performance of these approaches for improved business on data of invoices has been analysed using the data of two customers with two target attributes per customer as a dataset. The behaviour of neural network hyper-parameters using matplotlib and TensorBoard was empirically calculated and investigated. As part of the first approach, the standard way of implementing predictive algorithm using neural network was followed. Moreover, the hyper-parameters search space was fine-tuned, and the resulting model was studied by grid search on those hyper-parameters. This strategy of hyper-parameters was followed in the next two approaches as well. In the second approach, not only further possible improvement in prediction accuracy is achieved but also the dependency between the two target attributes by using multi-task learning was determined. As per the third implemented approach, the use of continual learning on invoices for postings was analysed. This investigation, that involves the comparison of varied machine learning approaches has broad significance in approving the currently available algorithms for handling such data and suggests means for improvement as well. It holds great prospects, including but not limited to future implementation of such approaches in the domain of finance towards improved customer experience, fraud detection and ease in the assessments of assets etc