Smart City Analytics: Ensemble-Learned Prediction of Citizen Home Care

We present an ensemble learning method that predicts large increases in the hours of home care received by citizens. The method is supervised, and uses different ensembles of either linear (logistic regression) or non-linear (random forests) classifiers. Experiments with data available from 2013 to 2017 for every citizen in Copenhagen receiving home care (27,775 citizens) show that prediction can achieve state of the art performance as reported in similar health related domains (AUC=0.715). We further find that competitive results can be obtained by using limited information for training, which is very useful when full records are not accessible or available. Smart city analytics does not necessarily require full city records. To our knowledge this preliminary study is the first to predict large increases in home care for smart city analytics

Deepr: A Convolutional Net for Medical Records

Feature engineering remains a major bottleneck when creating predictive systems from electronic medical records. At present, an important missing element is detecting predictive regular clinical motifs from irregular episodic records. We present Deepr (short for Deep record), a new end-to-end deep learning system that learns to extract features from medical records and predicts future risk automatically. Deepr transforms a record into a sequence of discrete elements separated by coded time gaps and hospital transfers. On top of the sequence is a convolutional neural net that detects and combines predictive local clinical motifs to stratify the risk. Deepr permits transparent inspection and visualization of its inner working. We validate Deepr on hospital data to predict unplanned readmission after discharge. Deepr achieves superior accuracy compared to traditional techniques, detects meaningful clinical motifs, and uncovers the underlying structure of the disease and intervention space

Predicting Unplanned Hospital Readmissions using Patient Level Data

The rate of unplanned hospital readmissions in the US is likely to face a steady rise after 2020. Hence, this issue has received considerable critical attention with the policy makers. Majority of hospitals in the US pay millions of dollars as penalty for readmitting patients within 30 days due to strict norms imposed by the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program. In this study, we develop two novel models: PURE (Predicting Unplanned Readmissions using Embeddings) and Hybrid DeepR, which uses the historical medical events of patients to predict readmissions within 30 days. Both these models are hybrid sequence models that leverage both sequential events (history of events) and static features (like gender, blood pressure) of the patients to mine patterns in the data. Our results are promising, and they benchmark previous results in predicting hospital readmissions. The contributions of this study add to existing literature on healthcare analytics

Process Mining of Disease Trajectories: A Feasibility Study

Modelling patient disease trajectories from evidence in electronic health records could help clinicians and medical researchers develop a better understanding of the progression of diseases within target populations. Process mining provides a set of well-established tools and techniques that have been used to mine electronic health record data to understand healthcare care pathways. In this paper we explore the feasibility for using a process mining methodology and toolset to automate the identification of disease trajectory models. We created synthetic electronic health record data based on a published disease trajectory model and developed a series of event log transformations to reproduce the disease trajectory model using standard process mining tools. Our approach will make it easier to produce disease trajectory models from routine health data

Toward a diagnostic CART model for Ischemic heart disease and idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy based on heart rate total variability

Diagnosis of etiology in early-stage ischemic heart disease (IHD) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients may be challenging. We aimed at investigating, by means of classification and regression tree (CART) modeling, the predictive power of heart rate variability (HRV) features together with clinical parameters to support the diagnosis in the early stage of IHD and DCM. The study included 263 IHD and 181 DCM patients, as well as 689 healthy subjects. A 24 h Holter monitoring was used and linear and non-linear HRV parameters were extracted considering both normal and ectopic beats (heart rate total variability signal). We used a CART algorithm to produce classification models based on HRV together with relevant clinical (age, sex, and left ventricular ejection fraction, LVEF) features. Among HRV parameters, MeanRR, SDNN, pNN50, LF, LF/HF, LFn, FD, Beta exp were selected by the CART algorithm and included in the produced models. The model based on pNN50, FD, sex, age, and LVEF features presented the highest accuracy (73.3%). The proposed approach based on HRV parameters, age, sex, and LVEF features highlighted the possibility to produce clinically interpretable models capable to differentiate IHD, DCM, and healthy subjects with accuracy which is clinically relevant in first steps of the IHD and DCM diagnostic process