A Predictive model for liver disease progression based on logistic regression algorithm

Liver disease counts to be one of the most prevalent diseases in the worldwide. Therefore, this paper is aim to address the problem of predicting liver disease progression. As the existing predictive models focus on predicting the label of disease; the probability of developing the disease is still obscure. This paper, therefore, has proposed a model to predict the probability occurrence of liver diseases. The proposed predictive model used logistic regression abilities to predict the probability of liver disease occurrence. ILPD dataset was used to analyze the performance of the model. The predictive model has shown outstanding performance with a prediction accuracy rate of 72.4%, the sensitivity of 90.3%, the specificity of 78.3 %, Type I Error of 9.7 %, Type II Error of 21.7 %, and ROC of 0.758%. The model has furthermore confirmed the feasibility of the laboratory tests such as as (Age; Direct Bilirubin (DB), Alamine_Aminotransferase (SGPT), Total_Protiens (TP), Albumin (ALB)) to predict the disease progression. The predictive model will be helpful to patients and doctors to realize the progression of the disease and make a suitable timely intervention

A transfer learning approach to drug resistance classification in mixed HIV dataset

Funding: This research is funded by the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund), Nigeria.As we advance towards individualized therapy, the ‘one-size-fits-all’ regimen is gradually paving the way for adaptive techniques that address the complexities of failed treatments. Treatment failure is associated with factors such as poor drug adherence, adverse side effect/reaction, co-infection, lack of follow-up, drug-drug interaction and more. This paper implements a transfer learning approach that classifies patients' response to failed treatments due to adverse drug reactions. The research is motivated by the need for early detection of patients' response to treatments and the generation of domain-specific datasets to balance under-represented classification data, typical of low-income countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa. A soft computing model was pre-trained to cluster CD4+ counts and viral loads of treatment change episodes (TCEs) processed from two disparate sources: the Stanford HIV drug resistant database (https://hivdb.stanford.edu), or control dataset, and locally sourced patients' records from selected health centers in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, or mixed dataset. Both datasets were experimented on a traditional 2-layer neural network (NN) and a 5-layer deep neural network (DNN), with odd dropout neurons distribution resulting in the following configurations: NN (Parienti et al., 2004) [32], NN (Deniz et al., 2018) [53] and DNN [9 7 5 3 1]. To discern knowledge of failed treatment, DNN1 [9 7 5 3 1] and DNN2 [9 7 5 3 1] were introduced to model both datasets and only TCEs of patients at risk of drug resistance, respectively. Classification results revealed fewer misclassifications, with the DNN architecture yielding best performance measures. However, the transfer learning approach with DNN2 [9 7 3 1] configuration produced superior classification results when compared to other variants/configurations, with classification accuracy of 99.40%, and RMSE values of 0.0056, 0.0510, and 0.0362, for test, train, and overall datasets, respectively. The proposed system therefore indicates good generalization and is vital as decision-making support to clinicians/physicians for predicting patients at risk of adverse drug reactions. Although imbalanced features classification is typical of disease problems and diminishes dependence on classification accuracy, the proposed system still compared favorably with the literature and can be hybridized to improve its precision and recall rates.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A comparative study of logistic regression based machine learning techniques for prediction of early virological suppression in antiretroviral initiating HIV patients

Abstract Background Treatment with effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) lowers morbidity and mortality among HIV positive individuals. Effective highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) should lead to undetectable viral load within 6 months of initiation of therapy. Failure to achieve and maintain viral suppression may lead to development of resistance and increase the risk of viral transmission. In this paper three logistic regression based machine learning approaches are developed to predict early virological outcomes using easily measurable baseline demographic and clinical variables (age, body weight, sex, TB disease status, ART regimen, viral load, CD4 count). The predictive performance and generalizability of the approaches are compared. Methods The multitask temporal logistic regression (MTLR), patient specific survival prediction (PSSP) and simple logistic regression (SLR) models were developed and validated using the IDI research cohort data and predictive performance tested on an external dataset from the EFV cohort. The model calibration and discrimination plots, discriminatory measures (AUROC, F1) and overall predictive performance (brier score) were assessed. Results The MTLR model outperformed the PSSP and SLR models in terms of goodness of fit (RMSE = 0.053, 0.1, and 0.14 respectively), discrimination (AUROC = 0.92, 0.75 and 0.53 respectively) and general predictive performance (Brier score= 0.08, 0.19, 0.11 respectively). The predictive importance of variables varied with time after initiation of ART. The final MTLR model accurately (accuracy = 92.9%) predicted outcomes in the external (EFV cohort) dataset with satisfactory discrimination (0.878) and a low (6.9%) false positive rate. Conclusion Multitask Logistic regression based models are capable of accurately predicting early virological suppression using readily available baseline demographic and clinical variables and could be used to derive a risk score for use in resource limited settings