Prediction and Situational Option Generation in Soccer

Paul Ward, Michigan Technological University Naturalistic models of decision making, such as the Recognition- Primed Decision (RPD) model (e.g., Klein, Calderwood, & Clinton-Cirocco, 1986; Klein, 1997), suggest that as individuals become more experienced within a domain they automatically recognize situational patterns as familiar which, in turn, activates an associated situational response. Typically, this results in a workable course of action being generated first, and subsequent options generated only if the initial option proves ineffective

Diffusion of shared goods in consumer coalitions. An agent-based model

This paper focuses on the process of coalition formation conditioning the common decision to adopt a shared good, which cannot be afforded by an average single consumer and whose use cannot be exhausted by any single consumer. An agent based model is developed to study the interplay between these two processes: coalition formation and diffusion of shared goods. Coalition formation is modelled in an evolutionary game theoretic setting, while adoption uses elements from both the Bass and the threshold models. Coalitions formation sets the conditions for adoption, while diffusion influences the consequent formation of coalitions. Results show that both coalitions and diffusion are subject to network effects and have an impact on the information flow though the population of consumers. Large coalitions are preferred over small ones since individual cost is lower, although it increases if higher quantities are purchased collectively. The paper concludes by connecting the model conceptualisation to the on-going discussion of diffusion of sustainable goods, discussing related policy implications

Can a Group Support System equipped with Group Cognitive Maps reduce Cognitive Conflicts?

A process for resolving cognitive conflicts among group members with the help of cognitive maps and a group support system has been proposed. Cognitive conflicts have been studied in the context of Social Judgment Theory. The model involves a set of criterion events, a set of cues, and a set of judgments about those events, based on observation of those cues, by a set of judges. Disagreement arises because the judges fail to understand each other’s judgment making policies. Cognitive maps, which are designed to capture the structure of a person\u27s causal assertions, can be used as a cognitive feedback mechanism that makes a decision-maker aware of his own cognitive orientation as well as that of others and help reduce differences. Since group support systems have been successfully used to manage conflicts, it is proposed to use the cognitive mapping technique within the purview of a group support system. A set of hypotheses are proposed to test the effect of the proposed process on the group’s judgment-making capability

Finding Safety in Numbers with Secure Allegation Escrows

For fear of retribution, the victim of a crime may be willing to report it only if other victims of the same perpetrator also step forward. Common examples include 1) identifying oneself as the victim of sexual harassment, especially by a person in a position of authority or 2) accusing an influential politician, an authoritarian government, or ones own employer of corruption. To handle such situations, legal literature has proposed the concept of an allegation escrow: a neutral third-party that collects allegations anonymously, matches them against each other, and de-anonymizes allegers only after de-anonymity thresholds (in terms of number of co-allegers), pre-specified by the allegers, are reached. An allegation escrow can be realized as a single trusted third party; however, this party must be trusted to keep the identity of the alleger and content of the allegation private. To address this problem, this paper introduces Secure Allegation Escrows (SAE, pronounced "say"). A SAE is a group of parties with independent interests and motives, acting jointly as an escrow for collecting allegations from individuals, matching the allegations, and de-anonymizing the allegations when designated thresholds are reached. By design, SAEs provide a very strong property: No less than a majority of parties constituting a SAE can de-anonymize or disclose the content of an allegation without a sufficient number of matching allegations (even in collusion with any number of other allegers). Once a sufficient number of matching allegations exist, the join escrow discloses the allegation with the allegers' identities. We describe how SAEs can be constructed using a novel authentication protocol and a novel allegation matching and bucketing algorithm, provide formal proofs of the security of our constructions, and evaluate a prototype implementation, demonstrating feasibility in practice.Comment: To appear in NDSS 2020. New version includes improvements to writing and proof. The protocol is unchange

Calibrating a System Dynamic Model Within an Integrative Framework to Test Foreign Policy Choices

Political science uses international relations (IR) theory to explain state-actor political behavior. Research suggests that this theoretical framework can inform a predictive model incorporating features of systems dynamics (SD) and agent based (AB) modeling. The Foreign Policy Model (ForPol) herein applies Alexander Y. Lubyansky\u27s (2014) SD model for macro-political behavior to represent behaviors between real systems and mental models. While verifying and validating the resulting SD/AB/IR holistic model requires an extensive comprehensive research agenda, the present work will take a closer examination at input parameter calibration and conducting typical runs of the SD portion of the model as a first step in the testing, verification and validation process of the proposed integrative model. This thesis proposes incorporating an AB paradigm drawn from work by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (2009), Edward P. MacKerrow (2003), David L. Rousseau (2006), Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell (1996) as a future hybrid extension. The model applies a SD approach for the modeling of macro-political aggregate behavior. Therefore, the deep analysis of the SD portion of ForPol is modeled and calibrated in Vensim, using empirical data from the 1967 Arab-Israeli Six Day War as a pilot. Interactions within the model actualize Choucri, et. al. (2006), definition of state stability and agent behavior aspects of Cioffi-Revilla\u27s (2009) SimPol polity model. Following calibration results discussion, the present work closes with consideration of future research directions

Meeting the challenges of decentralized embedded applications using multi-agent systems

International audienceToday embedded applications become large scale andstrongly constrained. They require a decentralized embedded intelligencegenerating challenges for embedded systems. A multi-agent approach iswell suited to model and design decentralized embedded applications.It is naturally able to take up some of these challenges. But somespecific points have to be introduced, enforced or improved in multiagentapproaches to reach all features and all requirements. In thisarticle, we present a study of specific activities that can complementmulti-agent paradigm in the ”embedded” context.We use our experiencewith the DIAMOND method to introduce and illustrate these featuresand activities

Foundations of continuous agent-based modelling frameworks for pedestrian dynamics and their implications

This paper addresses the theoretical foundations of pedestrian models for crowd dynamics. While the topic gains momentum, widely different mathematical approaches are actually in use, even if we only consider continuous agent-based models. To clarify their underpinning, we first rephrase the common hierarchical decomposition into strategic, tactical, and operational levels and show the practical interest in preserving the continuity between the latter two levels by working with a floor field, rather than way-points. Turning to local navigation, we clarify how three archetypical approaches, namely, reactive models, anticipatory models based on the idea of times to collision (exemplified by the recently proposed ANDA model), and game theory, differ in their extrapolation of future trajectories, and insist on the oft-overlooked distinction between processes pertaining to decision-making and mechanical effects in dense settings. The differences are illustrated with a comparison of the numerical predictions of instances of these models in the simple scenario of head-on collision avoidance between agents, by varying the walking speed and the reaction times, notably

Master\u27s Thesis and Field Study Abstracts, July 1982-June 1984

This publication, the tenth in a series which began in 1957, contains the abstracts of Master\u27s Theses and Field Studies completed by graduate students of St. Cloud State University. The bulletin contains those theses and field studies completed during the period from July of 1982 through June of 1984. A bound copy of each thesis or field study is on file in the Learning Resources Center, which houses the library on this campus. The library copy of each thesis and field study is available for use on an interlibrary loan basis. Copies of this bulletin may be obtained from the Office of Graduate Studies, School of Graduate and Continuing Studies, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, Minnesota, 56301