Convex Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

Optimal uncertainty quantification (OUQ) is a framework for numerical extreme-case analysis of stochastic systems with imperfect knowledge of the underlying probability distribution. This paper presents sufficient conditions under which an OUQ problem can be reformulated as a finite-dimensional convex optimization problem, for which efficient numerical solutions can be obtained. The sufficient conditions include that the objective function is piecewise concave and the constraints are piecewise convex. In particular, we show that piecewise concave objective functions may appear in applications where the objective is defined by the optimal value of a parameterized linear program.Comment: Accepted for publication in SIAM Journal on Optimizatio

A distributionally robust perspective on uncertainty quantification and chance constrained programming

The objective of uncertainty quantification is to certify that a given physical, engineering or economic system satisfies multiple safety conditions with high probability. A more ambitious goal is to actively influence the system so as to guarantee and maintain its safety, a scenario which can be modeled through a chance constrained program. In this paper we assume that the parameters of the system are governed by an ambiguous distribution that is only known to belong to an ambiguity set characterized through generalized moment bounds and structural properties such as symmetry, unimodality or independence patterns. We delineate the watershed between tractability and intractability in ambiguity-averse uncertainty quantification and chance constrained programming. Using tools from distributionally robust optimization, we derive explicit conic reformulations for tractable problem classes and suggest efficiently computable conservative approximations for intractable ones

Online Local Learning via Semidefinite Programming

In many online learning problems we are interested in predicting local information about some universe of items. For example, we may want to know whether two items are in the same cluster rather than computing an assignment of items to clusters; we may want to know which of two teams will win a game rather than computing a ranking of teams. Although finding the optimal clustering or ranking is typically intractable, it may be possible to predict the relationships between items as well as if you could solve the global optimization problem exactly. Formally, we consider an online learning problem in which a learner repeatedly guesses a pair of labels (l(x), l(y)) and receives an adversarial payoff depending on those labels. The learner's goal is to receive a payoff nearly as good as the best fixed labeling of the items. We show that a simple algorithm based on semidefinite programming can obtain asymptotically optimal regret in the case where the number of possible labels is O(1), resolving an open problem posed by Hazan, Kale, and Shalev-Schwartz. Our main technical contribution is a novel use and analysis of the log determinant regularizer, exploiting the observation that log det(A + I) upper bounds the entropy of any distribution with covariance matrix A.Comment: 10 page

Computing semiparametric bounds on the expected payments of insurance instruments via column generation

It has been recently shown that numerical semiparametric bounds on the expected payoff of fi- nancial or actuarial instruments can be computed using semidefinite programming. However, this approach has practical limitations. Here we use column generation, a classical optimization technique, to address these limitations. From column generation, it follows that practical univari- ate semiparametric bounds can be found by solving a series of linear programs. In addition to moment information, the column generation approach allows the inclusion of extra information about the random variable; for instance, unimodality and continuity, as well as the construction of corresponding worst/best-case distributions in a simple way

Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization

In this paper we survey the primary research, both theoretical and applied, in the area of Robust Optimization (RO). Our focus is on the computational attractiveness of RO approaches, as well as the modeling power and broad applicability of the methodology. In addition to surveying prominent theoretical results of RO, we also present some recent results linking RO to adaptable models for multi-stage decision-making problems. Finally, we highlight applications of RO across a wide spectrum of domains, including finance, statistics, learning, and various areas of engineering.Comment: 50 page