Improving the predictability of take-off times with Machine Learning : a case study for the Maastricht upper area control centre area of responsibility

The uncertainty of the take-off time is a major contribution to the loss of trajectory predictability. At present, the Estimated Take-Off Time (ETOT) for each individual flight is extracted from the Enhanced Traffic Flow Management System (ETFMS) messages, which are sent each time there is an event triggering a recalculation of the flight data by the Network Man- ager Operations Centre. However, aircraft do not always take- off at the ETOTs reported by the ETFMS due to several factors, including congestion and bad weather conditions at the departure airport, reactionary delays and air traffic flow management slot improvements. This paper presents two machine learning models that take into account several of these factors to improve the take- off time prediction of individual flights one hour before their estimated off-block time. Predictions performed by the model trained on three years of historical flight and weather data show a reduction on the take-off time prediction error of about 30% as compared to the ETOTs reported by the ETFMS.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Empirical exploration of air traffic and human dynamics in terminal airspaces

Air traffic is widely known as a complex, task-critical techno-social system, with numerous interactions between airspace, procedures, aircraft and air traffic controllers. In order to develop and deploy high-level operational concepts and automation systems scientifically and effectively, it is essential to conduct an in-depth investigation on the intrinsic traffic-human dynamics and characteristics, which is not widely seen in the literature. To fill this gap, we propose a multi-layer network to model and analyze air traffic systems. A Route-based Airspace Network (RAN) and Flight Trajectory Network (FTN) encapsulate critical physical and operational characteristics; an Integrated Flow-Driven Network (IFDN) and Interrelated Conflict-Communication Network (ICCN) are formulated to represent air traffic flow transmissions and intervention from air traffic controllers, respectively. Furthermore, a set of analytical metrics including network variables, complex network attributes, controllers' cognitive complexity, and chaotic metrics are introduced and applied in a case study of Guangzhou terminal airspace. Empirical results show the existence of fundamental diagram and macroscopic fundamental diagram at the route, sector and terminal levels. Moreover, the dynamics and underlying mechanisms of "ATCOs-flow" interactions are revealed and interpreted by adaptive meta-cognition strategies based on network analysis of the ICCN. Finally, at the system level, chaos is identified in conflict system and human behavioral system when traffic switch to the semi-stable or congested phase. This study offers analytical tools for understanding the complex human-flow interactions at potentially a broad range of air traffic systems, and underpins future developments and automation of intelligent air traffic management systems.Comment: 30 pages, 28 figures, currently under revie

State Estimation for Kite Power Systems with Delayed Sensor Measurements

We present a novel estimation approach for airborne wind energy systems with ground-based control and energy generation. The estimator fuses measurements from an inertial measurement unit attached to a tethered wing and position measurements from a camera as well as line angle sensors in an unscented Kalman filter. We have developed a novel kinematic description for tethered wings to specifically address tether dynamics. The presented approach simultaneously estimates feedback variables for a flight controller as well as model parameters, such as a time-varying delay. We demonstrate the performance of the estimator for experimental flight data and compare it to a state-of-the-art estimator based on inertial measurements

Linear and Nonlinear Encoding Properties of an Identified Mechanoreceptor on the Fly wing Measured with Mechanical Noise Stimuli

The wing blades of most flies contain a small set of distal campaniform sensilla, mechanoreceptors that respond to deformations of the cuticle. This paper describes a method of analysis based upon mechanical noise stimuli which is used to quantify the encoding properties of one of these sensilla (the d-HCV cell) on the wing of the blowfly Calliphora vomitoria (L.). The neurone is modelled as two components, a linear filter that accounts for the frequency response and phase characteristics of the cell, followed by a static nonlinearity that limits the spike discharge to a narrow portion of the stimulus cycle. The model is successful in predicting the response of campaniform neurones to arbitrary stimuli, and provides a convenient method for quantifying the encoding properties of the sensilla. The d-HCV neurone is only broadly frequency tuned, but its maximal response near 150 Hz corresponds to the wingbeat frequency of Calliphora. In the range of frequencies likely to be encountered during flight, the d-HCV neurone fires a single phase-locked action potential for each stimulus cycle. The phase lag of the cell decreases linearly with increasing frequency such that the absolute delay between stimulus and response remains nearly constant. Thus, during flight the neurone is capable of firing one precisely timed action potential during each wingbeat, and might be used to modulate motor activity that requires afferent input on a cycle-by-cycle basis

Computational Methods for Probabilistic Inference of Sector Congestion in Air Traffic Management

This article addresses the issue of computing the expected cost functions from a probabilistic model of the air traffic flow and capacity management. The Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature is compared to Monte-Carlo algorithms defined specifically for this problem. By tailoring the algorithms to this model, we reduce the computational burden in order to simulate real instances. The study shows that the Monte-Carlo algorithm is more sensible to the amount of uncertainty in the system, but has the advantage to return a result with the associated accuracy on demand. The performances for both approaches are comparable for the computation of the expected cost of delay and the expected cost of congestion. Finally, this study shows some evidences that the simulation of the proposed probabilistic model is tractable for realistic instances.Comment: Interdisciplinary Science for Innovative Air Traffic Management (2013