HETEROSCEDASTIC DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH FEATURE SELECTION FOR CREDIT SCORING

Credit granting is a fundamental question and one of the most complex tasks that every credit institution is faced with. Typically, credit scoring databases are often large and characterized by redundant and irrelevant features. An effective classification model will objectively help managers instead of intuitive experience. This study proposes an approach for building a credit scoring model based on the combination of heteroscedastic extension (Loog, Duin, 2002) of classical Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis (Fisher, 1936, Krzyśko, 1990) and a feature selection algorithm that retains sufficient information for classification purpose. We have tested five feature subset selection algorithms: two filters and three wrappers. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed credit scoring model and to compare it with the existing approaches we have used the German credit data set from the study (Chen, Li, 2010). The results of our study suggest that the proposed hybrid approach is an effective and promising method for building credit scoring models

Hybrid model using logit and nonparametric methods for predicting micro-entity failure

Following the calls from literature on bankruptcy, a parsimonious hybrid bankruptcy model is developed in this paper by combining parametric and non-parametric approaches.To this end, the variables with the highest predictive power to detect bankruptcy are selected using logistic regression (LR). Subsequently, alternative non-parametric methods (Multilayer Perceptron, Rough Set, and Classification-Regression Trees) are applied, in turn, to firms classified as either “bankrupt” or “not bankrupt”. Our findings show that hybrid models, particularly those combining LR and Multilayer Perceptron, offer better accuracy performance and interpretability and converge faster than each method implemented in isolation. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that the introduction of non-financial and macroeconomic variables complement financial ratios for bankruptcy prediction

A Practical Approach to Credit Scoring

This paper proposes a DEA-based approach to credit scoring. Compared with conventional models such as multiple discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, and neural networks for business failure prediction, which require extra a priori information, this new approach solely requires ex-post information to calculate credit scores. For the empirical evidence, this methodology was applied to current financial data of external audited 1061 manufacturing firms comprising the credit portfolio of one of the largest credit guarantee organizations in Korea. Using financial ratios, the methodology could synthesize a firm’s overall performance into a single financial credibility score. The empirical results were also validated by supporting analyses (regression analysis and discriminant analysis) and by testing the model’s discriminatory power using actual bankruptcy cases of 103 firms. In addition, we propose a practical credit rating method using the predicted DEA scores

A multicriteria hierarchical discrimination approach for credit risk problems

Recently, banks and credit institutions have shown an increased interest in developing and implementing credit-scoring systems for taking corporate and consumer credit granting decisions. The objective of such systems is to analyze the characteristics of each applicant (firm or individual) and support the decision making process regarding the acceptance or the rejection of the credit application. This paper addresses this problem through the use of a multicriteria classi - fication technique, the M.H.DIS method (Multi-group Hierarchical DIScrimination). M.H.DIS is applied to real-world case studies regarding the assessment of corporate credit risk and the evaluation of credit card applications. The results obtained through the M.H.DIS method are compared to the results of three wellknown statistical techniques, namely linear and quadratic discriminant analysis, as well as logit analysis.peer-reviewe

Corporate Credit Rating: A Survey

Corporate credit rating (CCR) plays a very important role in the process of contemporary economic and social development. How to use credit rating methods for enterprises has always been a problem worthy of discussion. Through reading and studying the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper makes a systematic survey of CCR. This paper combs the context of the development of CCR methods from the three levels: statistical models, machine learning models and neural network models, summarizes the common databases of CCR, and deeply compares the advantages and disadvantages of the models. Finally, this paper summarizes the problems existing in the current research and prospects the future of CCR. Compared with the existing review of CCR, this paper expounds and analyzes the progress of neural network model in this field in recent years.Comment: 11 page

Discriminating factors between successful and unsuccessful teams: A case study in elite youth Olympic basketball games

Archival data was gathered from the FIBA33 games during the 1st inaugural Youth Olympic Games held in Singapore. Data collected from 70 basketball games played by boys from 20 participating countries were gathered for analysis. Analysis of game-related statistics and FIBA33 final rankings differentiated successful from unsuccessful teams. Ninety-five percent of the cases were correctly classified using discriminant analysis and in the cross-validation (leave-one-out method) the correct re-classification was 75 percent. Data triangulated from interviews and field notes were used to determine key factors contributing to team's success in the FIBA33 games. Results of the present study showed that players from the top 10 successful teams could be differentiated from those in the bottom 10 unsuccessful teams. The determining factors were taller, had better shooting percentages, played aggressively (i.e., recorded more team fouls and the ability to draw fouls on opponents during games). Coaches can use these results to improve player's recruitment process, reinforce the importance of fundamental skills such as shooting, individual offensive and defensive concepts under different game situations during trainings

Effectiveness of R&D project selection in uncertain environment: An empirical study in the German automotive supplier industry

This paper presents results of an empirical large-scale study on uncertainty reduction of R&D projects and R&D project selection. The empirical field is the German automotive supplier industry. We explore R&D project selection practices in this specific industry and briefly contrast our findings with the academic research and management literature in this field. We concentrate on answering three research questions (with focus on questions no. 1 and 2): I. Which information and related uncertainties are crucial for the product selection decision to the R&D decision makers? II. How do R&D decision makers today cope with typical challenges related to reducing uncertainty? Where do they face major problems and how effective are they? III. What are major implications for managing the Fuzzy Front End (FFE) of innovation process in industry practice and respectively for further academic research in this field? Key findings are that on the one hand certainty about fields of product applications, target markets and production feasibility are most important criteria for initial product selection decisions. On the other hand market and cost related uncertainties (e.g. sales volume, product price, cost per unit) cannot be satisfyingly reduced in practice before project approval for development or definite termination of projects. Although different uncertainty profiles exist within the process of project evaluation, most companies do not systematically choose available product selection methods and tools according to specific uncertainty situations. Intuition still plays a major role in R&D product selection. Some first conclusion drawn from this research are: A sufficient level of resources (including financial and methodological know-how), a systematic use of suitable project selection instruments, and a fit with the company specific as well as the OEMs' product/brand strategies can be potential levers for more effective uncertainty reduction before product decision. --