Modelling winning performance in invasive team games

This study reports a four-year investigation into winning performance in invasive team games. The aims of the study were; to identify patterns of winning performance in two invasive team games (Aim 1); and to propose a generic model of winning performance in these games (Aim 2). Four research questions were derived from these aims: Can data gathered by real-time notation systems be used to develop a model for coaches and performers of winning performance?; Do winning teams in rugby union or association football exhibit any observable patterns of behaviour?; Is it possible to profile performances of winning teams in invasive games as an ‘ideal type’?; Is it possible to construct a predictive model of winning performance in invasive team games? Data were collected by real-time hand and computer notation systems from 105 international fixtures (52 rugby union games and 53 association football games). The systems used underwent rigorous validity and reliability checks and were found to be valid and reliable research instruments. Data from the two sports were subjected to thirty investigations (16 for rugby union and 14 for association football) in order to identify patterns of winning behaviour. This behaviour was then presented as an ideal type model of winning in rugby union and association football. Whilst it was acknowledged that within-game and within-sport differences rendered the modelling of performance difficult, it was proposed that some extraneous factors, some key performance areas and some scoring characteristics could be combined to provide an ideal type of winning. A limited, generic model of winning in an invasive game was also proposed. It is concluded that an ideal type model sensitive to quantitative and qualitative data can be constructed for winning performance. It is noted that the spirit of ideal type modelling is sensitive to the dynamic interplay of structural components of games playing and individual action and virtuosity. Directions for future research are identified

Proceedings of Mathsport international 2017 conference

Proceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference, held in the Botanical Garden of the University of Padua, June 26-28, 2017. MathSport International organizes biennial conferences dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sport meet. Topics include: performance measures, optimization of sports performance, statistics and probability models, mathematical and physical models in sports, competitive strategies, statistics and probability match outcome models, optimal tournament design and scheduling, decision support systems, analysis of rules and adjudication, econometrics in sport, analysis of sporting technologies, financial valuation in sport, e-sports (gaming), betting and sports

Behavioral Finance and Investor Governance

The efficient market hypothesis is a special case in finance. It explains only tiny fractions of observed phenomena. Perhaps its major contribution is a formal definition of an ideal market world, to which policy formulations may be directed and against which they can be measured. Indeed, it seems unlikely that the infirmities of market action ever will be so minuscule as to render the EMH more than a special case, though it may explain more in the future than it does now. However things evolve, during the evolutionary course the shackles of the EMH should be unloosed from corporate and investing culture. Part I presents behavioral finance as to how prices of stocks are formed?including a theoretical framework, empirical evidence, and psychological explanations. It integrates these materials into a model of market and investor behavior that can be used as a lens through which to analyze a wide variety of legal rules and policies bearing on market regulation and corporate governance. Part II is a series of prescriptions on the implications of this account relating to investor governance. It starts with a proposal to promote and expand investor education concerning the cognitive biases behavioral finance exposes. It proceeds to introduce and propose reforms in three critical areas of law and policy that this model impacts: (1) the market regulatory environment in which investors participate, including suitability and churning rules and policies relating to day trading, margin trading, and circuit breakers; (2) the legal duties of boards of directors in making capital allocation decisions such as equity offerings, dividend distributions and stock acquisitions; and (3) issues in corporate and securities litigation, principally the reliance requirement in securities fraud cases and the stock market exception to the appraisal remedy in cash out mergers. The efficient market idea turns out to be an aspiration worth pursuing, but one never likely to be realized. These proposals and prescriptions therefore operate both to push the reality toward the ideal and to deal with the gap that will persist. The article has a major public policy subtext too, at stake in the discussion of how prices are formed is the overarching question of capital allocation. Society is better off in terms of aggregate wealth when its resources are allocated to those best able to deploy them. Investors allocating capital based on rational calculation will produce that result, while those allocating based on sentiment will not. A word on methodology concludes the piece concerning where the piece fits in the bourgeoning legal literature drawing on behavioral social science. Throughout the intellectual history and genealogy of behavioral finance, legal scholars with a social science inclination have drawn on various strands of thought pioneered in these fields, importing the work of the cognitive psychologists, principally behavioral decision theory (which they call BDT). Concerns of the lead importers center on the usefulness of BDT to legal scholarship and policymaking generally include whether all it will do is furnish criticism of law and economics and fail to offer its own positive theories of law or normative prescriptions. Whatever power BDT has for legal scholarship in general, this Article should leave no doubt that it furnishes a positive theory of market behavior quite different than that of efficiency (imported and promoted by some law and economics devotees) and that this theory carries with it substantial normative implications for law and legal policy in the fields of securities and corporate law

Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models

Philosophical Issues in Sport Science

The role and value of science within sport increases with ever greater professionalization and commercialization. Scientific and technological innovations are devised to increase performance, ensure greater accuracy of measurement and officiating, reduce risks of harm, enhance spectatorship, and raise revenues. However, such innovations inevitably come up against epistemological and metaphysical problems related to the nature of sport and physical competition. This Special Issue identifies and explores key and contemporary philosophical issues in relation to the science of sport and exercise. It is divided into three sections: 1. Scientific evidence, causation, and sport; 2. Science technology and sport officiating; and 3. Scientific influences on the construction of sport. It brings together scholars working on philosophical problems in sport to examine issues related to the values and assumptions behind sport and exercise science and key problems resulting from these and to provide recommendations for improving its practice

A Influência da introdução da regra dos 24 segundos na dinâmica ofensiva e defensiva das equipas de basquetebol

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciência do Desporto, área de especialização em Treino de Alto Rendimento Desportivo, apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências do Desporto e de Educação Física da Universidade do Port

Decision-making and the role of feedback in complex tasks

This thesis investigates the process of decision-making in relation to complex tasks and considers the important role which dynamic information and real-time feedback play in shaping response behaviour and adaptation within such environments. Through empirical studies, the thesis explores the extent to which decision-makers can be said to act rationally when challenged by complex decision-making environments. Evidence relating to demand for information and the impact of feedback on behaviour is provided with two studies: The first uses a simulated auction platform to examine behaviour within overlapping auctions of short duration with close-to-identical items and minimal participation costs. Mouse tracking is used to capture data on relevant interactions of participants with the simulated online platform, including switching behaviour independent of bidding. The resulting data suggests that participants did behave in a manner consistent with utility maximisation, seeking to acquire the item at the lowest possible price and showing no bias in terms of auction preference. The impact of fixed-price offers in the form of a “Buy it Now” option is also examined with some evidence that participants again seek, and respond to, current information when deciding on their bidding strategy. The second study is a test of the impact of real-time feedback and demand for information within the context of financial markets. The study again uses a novel simulated environment which provides access to considerable amounts of relevant data which participants can choose to access. In addition, participants are exposed to regular feedback with regard to their own performance. Overall, demand for information is found to be dependent upon the type of feedback received and its context. Decision-makers then appear to behave objectively, apparently seeking the latest available information to support current decisions, although investor style is found to be important in determining overall trading propensity. The thesis starts by considering a number of the foundations and pathways which run through the judgment and decision-making literature. It is not a complete description, review or analysis of all of the prevailing lines of enquiry. Nevertheless, it seeks to achieve coherence in terms of bringing together some of the key themes dealing with risky choice under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity. The field of judgment and decision-making is inevitably vast; its scope owing much to the fact that it transcends individual disciplines. The emergent behavioural sciences thus draw together important strands from various sources, notably Economics and Finance. In many areas, psychological traits can be applied to explain inconsistencies which are found in classical theory of rational behaviour. The recognition of behavioural traits has thus contributed greatly to the evolution of decisionmaking theories under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity which are, in many cases, substantially more adaptable and robust than early normative theories of rational behaviour. The classical approach to rational decision making within Economics, together with some theoretical and empirical challenges to it, are considered in Chapter 1. It is here that we are introduced to the Rational Man. Like the mythical creatures found in Classical Antiquity, the Rational Man does not actually exist in the real world; he is nevertheless central to the concept of utility maximising rational choice which provided much of the foundation of Economics. Developments of expected utility theory (EUT) are considered, including its replacement of expected value, and the formalisation of rational behaviour within the context of axioms. When those logical axioms apply, decision-makers can be said to behave 'as if' they are utility maximises. The chapter ends with some empirical evidence, showing the types of approaches often used to explore rational decision-making. Some violations of EUT are explored, both in relation to notional gambles and consistency with regard to revealed preferences. Chapter 2 extends the narrative by considering rational decision-making in cases where there is no objective information about possible outcomes. Subjective utility theory (SEU) is then introduced, describing objective functions based upon preferences derived from combined utility and probability functions. The implications of the Allais’ and Ellsberg paradoxes are discussed, along with some possible solutions. It is here that we explore the concepts of uncertainty and ambiguity in more details and consider some theoretical formulations for addressing them. Chapter 3 covers the significant contribution to decision-making under conditions of uncertainty provided by Prospect Theory and, later, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). Their evolution from the pioneering work of Markowitz is discussed within the context of reference points relative to which outcomes can be evaluated. The significance of stochastic dominance and rank dependence are explored. By this stage, we have examined numerous theories which have fundamentally transformed standard EUT into much more flexible and adaptable frameworks of rational choice. The core concepts of utility maximisation remain yet the initial, strictly concave utility function describing diminishing marginal utility is now substantially replaced by more complex weighted preference functions. From this theoretical base, the process of choice reduction and the application of heuristics in decision-making are considered. We again describe axiomatic behaviour compatible with rational choice. Therefore, decision-makers faced with multiple choices about which there may be little or no objective information about likely outcomes can nevertheless develop rational beliefs and expectations which can then be applied to reduce complex tasks to more manageable proportions. As well as considering these aspects from the point of view of actual choices, we also consider the processes by which decisions are taken. Thus, process tracing methods are introduced into the discussion. The chapter also explicitly considers the role of feedback in decision making. This includes a consideration of Bayesian inference as a process for updating probabilistic expectations subject to new information. From considering theoretical formulations form which we can judge rational behaviour, Chapter 5 looks at evidence for sub-optimal decision-making and bias. Bias with regard to probability assessments are considered along with empirical evidence of bias in relation to intertemporal discounting. Sunk cost bias is also considered as a clear example of irrational behaviour, leading in to a specific discussion about a number of persistent behavioural biases identified within financial markets. As an introduction to later chapters, this also covers the basic theoretical principles of market efficiency and evidence that real markets fail to adhere to those principles in important ways. Chapters 6 and 8 describe the empirical studies with Chapter 7 providing a more detailed introduction to the financial markets experiment, considering aspects of market efficiency, models of behaviour and other empirical evidence