Towards Prescriptive Analytics in Cyber-Physical Systems

More and more of our physical world today is being monitored and controlled by so-called cyber-physical systems (CPSs). These are compositions of networked autonomous cyber and physical agents such as sensors, actuators, computational elements, and humans in the loop. Today, CPSs are still relatively small-scale and very limited compared to CPSs to be witnessed in the future. Future CPSs are expected to be far more complex, large-scale, wide-spread, and mission-critical, and found in a variety of domains such as transportation, medicine, manufacturing, and energy, where they will bring many advantages such as the increased efficiency, sustainability, reliability, and security. To unleash their full potential, CPSs need to be equipped with, among other features, the support for automated planning and control, where computing agents collaboratively and continuously plan and control their actions in an intelligent and well-coordinated manner to secure and optimize a physical process, e.g., electricity flow in the power grid. In today’s CPSs, the control is typically automated, but the planning is solely performed by humans. Unfortunately, it is intractable and infeasible for humans to plan every action in a future CPS due to the complexity, scale, and volatility of a physical process. Due to these properties, the control and planning has to be continuous and automated in future CPSs. Humans may only analyse and tweak the system’s operation using the set of tools supporting prescriptive analytics that allows them (1) to make predictions, (2) to get the suggestions of the most prominent set of actions (decisions) to be taken, and (3) to analyse the implications as if such actions were taken. This thesis considers the planning and control in the context of a large-scale multi-agent CPS. Based on the smart-grid use-case, it presents a so-called PrescriptiveCPS – which is (the conceptual model of) a multi-agent, multi-role, and multi-level CPS automatically and continuously taking and realizing decisions in near real-time and providing (human) users prescriptive analytics tools to analyse and manage the performance of the underlying physical system (or process). Acknowledging the complexity of CPSs, this thesis provides contributions at the following three levels of scale: (1) the level of a (full) PrescriptiveCPS, (2) the level of a single PrescriptiveCPS agent, and (3) the level of a component of a CPS agent software system. At the CPS level, the contributions include the definition of PrescriptiveCPS, according to which it is the system of interacting physical and cyber (sub-)systems. Here, the cyber system consists of hierarchically organized inter-connected agents, collectively managing instances of so-called flexibility, decision, and prescription models, which are short-lived, focus on the future, and represent a capability, an (user’s) intention, and actions to change the behaviour (state) of a physical system, respectively. At the agent level, the contributions include the three-layer architecture of an agent software system, integrating the number of components specially designed or enhanced to support the functionality of PrescriptiveCPS. At the component level, the most of the thesis contribution is provided. The contributions include the description, design, and experimental evaluation of (1) a unified multi-dimensional schema for storing flexibility and prescription models (and related data), (2) techniques to incrementally aggregate flexibility model instances and disaggregate prescription model instances, (3) a database management system (DBMS) with built-in optimization problem solving capability allowing to formulate optimization problems using SQL-like queries and to solve them “inside a database”, (4) a real-time data management architecture for processing instances of flexibility and prescription models under (soft or hard) timing constraints, and (5) a graphical user interface (GUI) to visually analyse the flexibility and prescription model instances. Additionally, the thesis discusses and exemplifies (but provides no evaluations of) (1) domain-specific and in-DBMS generic forecasting techniques allowing to forecast instances of flexibility models based on historical data, and (2) powerful ways to analyse past, current, and future based on so-called hypothetical what-if scenarios and flexibility and prescription model instances stored in a database. Most of the contributions at this level are based on the smart-grid use-case. In summary, the thesis provides (1) the model of a CPS with planning capabilities, (2) the design and experimental evaluation of prescriptive analytics techniques allowing to effectively forecast, aggregate, disaggregate, visualize, and analyse complex models of the physical world, and (3) the use-case from the energy domain, showing how the introduced concepts are applicable in the real world. We believe that all this contribution makes a significant step towards developing planning-capable CPSs in the future.Mehr und mehr wird heute unsere physische Welt überwacht und durch sogenannte Cyber-Physical-Systems (CPS) geregelt. Dies sind Kombinationen von vernetzten autonomen cyber und physischen Agenten wie Sensoren, Aktoren, Rechenelementen und Menschen. Heute sind CPS noch relativ klein und im Vergleich zu CPS der Zukunft sehr begrenzt. Zukünftige CPS werden voraussichtlich weit komplexer, größer, weit verbreiteter und unternehmenskritischer sein sowie in einer Vielzahl von Bereichen wie Transport, Medizin, Fertigung und Energie – in denen sie viele Vorteile wie erhöhte Effizienz, Nachhaltigkeit, Zuverlässigkeit und Sicherheit bringen – anzutreffen sein. Um ihr volles Potenzial entfalten zu können, müssen CPS unter anderem mit der Unterstützung automatisierter Planungs- und Steuerungsfunktionalität ausgestattet sein, so dass Agents ihre Aktionen gemeinsam und kontinuierlich auf intelligente und gut koordinierte Weise planen und kontrollieren können, um einen physischen Prozess wie den Stromfluss im Stromnetz sicherzustellen und zu optimieren. Zwar sind in den heutigen CPS Steuerung und Kontrolle typischerweise automatisiert, aber die Planung wird weiterhin allein von Menschen durchgeführt. Leider ist diese Aufgabe nur schwer zu bewältigen, und es ist für den Menschen schlicht unmöglich, jede Aktion in einem zukünftigen CPS auf Basis der Komplexität, des Umfangs und der Volatilität eines physikalischen Prozesses zu planen. Aufgrund dieser Eigenschaften müssen Steuerung und Planung in CPS der Zukunft kontinuierlich und automatisiert ablaufen. Der Mensch soll sich dabei ganz auf die Analyse und Einflussnahme auf das System mit Hilfe einer Reihe von Werkzeugen konzentrieren können. Derartige Werkzeuge erlauben (1) Vorhersagen, (2) Vorschläge der wichtigsten auszuführenden Aktionen (Entscheidungen) und (3) die Analyse und potentiellen Auswirkungen der zu fällenden Entscheidungen. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Planung und Kontrolle im Rahmen großer Multi-Agent-CPS. Basierend auf dem Smart-Grid als Anwendungsfall wird ein sogenanntes PrescriptiveCPS vorgestellt, welches einem Multi-Agent-, Multi-Role- und Multi-Level-CPS bzw. dessen konzeptionellem Modell entspricht. Diese PrescriptiveCPS treffen und realisieren automatisch und kontinuierlich Entscheidungen in naher Echtzeit und stellen Benutzern (Menschen) Prescriptive-Analytics-Werkzeuge und Verwaltung der Leistung der zugrundeliegenden physischen Systeme bzw. Prozesse zur Verfügung. In Anbetracht der Komplexität von CPS leistet diese Arbeit Beiträge auf folgenden Ebenen: (1) Gesamtsystem eines PrescriptiveCPS, (2) PrescriptiveCPS-Agenten und (3) Komponenten eines CPS-Agent-Software-Systems. Auf CPS-Ebene umfassen die Beiträge die Definition von PrescriptiveCPS als ein System von wechselwirkenden physischen und cyber (Sub-)Systemen. Das Cyber-System besteht hierbei aus hierarchisch organisierten verbundenen Agenten, die zusammen Instanzen sogenannter Flexibility-, Decision- und Prescription-Models verwalten, welche von kurzer Dauer sind, sich auf die Zukunft konzentrieren und Fähigkeiten, Absichten (des Benutzers) und Aktionen darstellen, die das Verhalten des physischen Systems verändern. Auf Agenten-Ebene umfassen die Beiträge die Drei-Ebenen-Architektur eines Agentensoftwaresystems sowie die Integration von Komponenten, die insbesondere zur besseren Unterstützung der Funktionalität von PrescriptiveCPS entwickelt wurden. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit bilden die Beiträge auf der Komponenten-Ebene, diese umfassen Beschreibung, Design und experimentelle Evaluation (1) eines einheitlichen multidimensionalen Schemas für die Speicherung von Flexibility- and Prescription-Models (und verwandten Daten), (2) der Techniken zur inkrementellen Aggregation von Instanzen eines Flexibilitätsmodells und Disaggregation von Prescription-Models, (3) eines Datenbankmanagementsystem (DBMS) mit integrierter Optimierungskomponente, die es erlaubt, Optimierungsprobleme mit Hilfe von SQL-ähnlichen Anfragen zu formulieren und sie „in einer Datenbank zu lösen“, (4) einer Echtzeit-Datenmanagementarchitektur zur Verarbeitung von Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models unter (weichen oder harten) Zeitvorgaben und (5) einer grafische Benutzeroberfläche (GUI) zur Visualisierung und Analyse von Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models. Darüber hinaus diskutiert und veranschaulicht diese Arbeit beispielhaft ohne detaillierte Evaluation (1) anwendungsspezifische und im DBMS integrierte Vorhersageverfahren, die die Vorhersage von Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models auf Basis historischer Daten ermöglichen, und (2) leistungsfähige Möglichkeiten zur Analyse von Vergangenheit, Gegenwart und Zukunft auf Basis sogenannter hypothetischer „What-if“-Szenarien und der in der Datenbank hinterlegten Instanzen der Flexibility- and Prescription-Models. Die meisten der Beiträge auf dieser Ebene basieren auf dem Smart-Grid-Anwendungsfall. Zusammenfassend befasst sich diese Arbeit mit (1) dem Modell eines CPS mit Planungsfunktionen, (2) dem Design und der experimentellen Evaluierung von Prescriptive-Analytics-Techniken, die eine effektive Vorhersage, Aggregation, Disaggregation, Visualisierung und Analyse komplexer Modelle der physischen Welt ermöglichen und (3) dem Anwendungsfall der Energiedomäne, der zeigt, wie die vorgestellten Konzepte in der Praxis Anwendung finden. Wir glauben, dass diese Beiträge einen wesentlichen Schritt in der zukünftigen Entwicklung planender CPS darstellen.Mere og mere af vores fysiske verden bliver overvåget og kontrolleret af såkaldte cyber-fysiske systemer (CPSer). Disse er sammensætninger af netværksbaserede autonome IT (cyber) og fysiske (physical) agenter, såsom sensorer, aktuatorer, beregningsenheder, og mennesker. I dag er CPSer stadig forholdsvis små og meget begrænsede i forhold til de CPSer vi kan forvente i fremtiden. Fremtidige CPSer forventes at være langt mere komplekse, storstilede, udbredte, og missionskritiske, og vil kunne findes i en række områder såsom transport, medicin, produktion og energi, hvor de vil give mange fordele, såsom øget effektivitet, bæredygtighed, pålidelighed og sikkerhed. For at frigøre CPSernes fulde potentiale, skal de bl.a. udstyres med støtte til automatiseret planlægning og kontrol, hvor beregningsagenter i samspil og løbende planlægger og styrer deres handlinger på en intelligent og velkoordineret måde for at sikre og optimere en fysisk proces, såsom elforsyningen i elnettet. I nuværende CPSer er styringen typisk automatiseret, mens planlægningen udelukkende er foretaget af mennesker. Det er umuligt for mennesker at planlægge hver handling i et fremtidigt CPS på grund af kompleksiteten, skalaen, og omskifteligheden af en fysisk proces. På grund af disse egenskaber, skal kontrol og planlægning være kontinuerlig og automatiseret i fremtidens CPSer. Mennesker kan kun analysere og justere systemets drift ved hjælp af det sæt af værktøjer, der understøtter præskriptive analyser (prescriptive analytics), der giver dem mulighed for (1) at lave forudsigelser, (2) at få forslagene fra de mest fremtrædende sæt handlinger (beslutninger), der skal tages, og (3) at analysere konsekvenserne, hvis sådanne handlinger blev udført. Denne afhandling omhandler planlægning og kontrol i forbindelse med store multi-agent CPSer. Baseret på en smart-grid use case, præsenterer afhandlingen det såkaldte PrescriptiveCPS hvilket er (den konceptuelle model af) et multi-agent, multi-rolle, og multi-level CPS, der automatisk og kontinuerligt tager beslutninger i nær-realtid og leverer (menneskelige) brugere præskriptiveanalyseværktøjer til at analysere og håndtere det underliggende fysiske system (eller proces). I erkendelse af kompleksiteten af CPSer, giver denne afhandling bidrag til følgende tre niveauer: (1) niveauet for et (fuldt) PrescriptiveCPS, (2) niveauet for en enkelt PrescriptiveCPS agent, og (3) niveauet for en komponent af et CPS agent software system. På CPS-niveau, omfatter bidragene definitionen af PrescriptiveCPS, i henhold til hvilken det er det system med interagerende fysiske- og IT- (under-) systemer. Her består IT-systemet af hierarkisk organiserede forbundne agenter der sammen styrer instanser af såkaldte fleksibilitet (flexibility), beslutning (decision) og præskriptive (prescription) modeller, som henholdsvis er kortvarige, fokuserer på fremtiden, og repræsenterer en kapacitet, en (brugers) intention, og måder til at ændre adfærd (tilstand) af et fysisk system. På agentniveau omfatter bidragene en tre-lags arkitektur af et agent software system, der integrerer antallet af komponenter, der er specielt konstrueret eller udbygges til at understøtte funktionaliteten af PrescriptiveCPS. Komponentniveauet er hvor afhandlingen har sit hovedbidrag. Bidragene omfatter beskrivelse, design og eksperimentel evaluering af (1) et samlet multi- dimensionelt skema til at opbevare fleksibilitet og præskriptive modeller (og data), (2) teknikker til trinvis aggregering af fleksibilitet modelinstanser og disaggregering af præskriptive modelinstanser (3) et database management system (DBMS) med indbygget optimeringsproblemløsning (optimization problem solving) der gør det muligt at formulere optimeringsproblemer ved hjælp af SQL-lignende forespørgsler og at løse dem "inde i en database", (4) en realtids data management arkitektur til at behandle instanser af fleksibilitet og præskriptive modeller under (bløde eller hårde) tidsbegrænsninger, og (5) en grafisk brugergrænseflade (GUI) til visuelt at analysere fleksibilitet og præskriptive modelinstanser. Derudover diskuterer og eksemplificerer afhandlingen (men giver ingen evalueringer af) (1) domæne-specifikke og in-DBMS generiske prognosemetoder der gør det muligt at forudsige instanser af fleksibilitet modeller baseret på historiske data, og (2) kraftfulde måder at analysere tidligere-, nutids- og fremtidsbaserede såkaldte hypotetiske hvad-hvis scenarier og fleksibilitet og præskriptive modelinstanser gemt i en database. De fleste af bidragene på dette niveau er baseret på et smart-grid brugsscenarie. Sammenfattende giver afhandlingen (1) modellen for et CPS med planlægningsmulighed, (2) design og eksperimentel evaluering af præskriptive analyse teknikker der gør det muligt effektivt at forudsige, aggregere, disaggregere, visualisere og analysere komplekse modeller af den fysiske verden, og (3) brugsscenariet fra energiområdet, der viser, hvordan de indførte begreber kan anvendes i den virkelige verden. Vi mener, at dette bidrag udgør et betydeligt skridt i retning af at udvikle CPSer til planlægningsbrug i fremtiden

Always in control? Sovereign states in cyberspace

For well over twenty years, we have witnessed an intriguing debate about the nature of cyberspace. Used for everything from communication to commerce, it has transformed the way individuals and societies live. But how has it impacted the sovereignty of states? An initial wave of scholars argued that it had dramatically diminished centralised control by states, helped by a tidal wave of globalisation and freedom. These libertarian claims were considerable. More recently, a new wave of writing has argued that states have begun to recover control in cyberspace, focusing on either the police work of authoritarian regimes or the revelations of Edward Snowden. Both claims were wide of the mark. By contrast, this article argues that we have often misunderstood the materiality of cyberspace and its consequences for control. It not only challenges the libertarian narrative of freedom, it suggests that the anarchic imaginary of the Internet as a ‘Wild West’ was deliberately promoted by states in order to distract from the reality. The Internet, like previous forms of electronic connectivity, consists mostly of a physical infrastructure located in specific geographies and jurisdictions. Rather than circumscribing sovereignty, it has offered centralised authority new ways of conducting statecraft. Indeed, the Internet, high-speed computing, and voice recognition were all the result of security research by a single information hegemon and therefore it has always been in control

Making PayPal Pay: Regulation E and Its Application to Alternative Payment Services

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The enemy has passed through the gate: insider threats, the dark triad, and the challenges around security

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight the potential role that the so-called “toxic triangle” (Padilla et al., 2007) can play in undermining the processes around effectiveness. It is the interaction between leaders, organisational members, and the environmental context in which those interactions occur that has the potential to generate dysfunctional behaviours and processes. The paper seeks to set out a set of issues that would seem to be worthy of further consideration within the Journal and which deal with the relationships between organisational effectiveness and the threats from insiders.<p></p> Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a systems approach to the threats from insiders and the manner in which it impacts on organisation effectiveness. The ultimate goal of the paper is to stimulate further debate and discussion around the issues.<p></p> Findings – The paper adds to the discussions around effectiveness by highlighting how senior managers can create the conditions in which failure can occur through the erosion of controls, poor decision making, and the creation of a culture that has the potential to generate failure. Within this setting, insiders can serve to trigger a series of failures by their actions and for which the controls in place are either ineffective or have been by-passed as a result of insider knowledge.<p></p> Research limitations/implications – The issues raised in this paper need to be tested empirically as a means of providing a clear evidence base in support of their relationships with the generation of organisational ineffectiveness.<p></p> Practical implications – The paper aims to raise awareness and stimulate thinking by practising managers around the role that the “toxic triangle” of issues can play in creating the conditions by which organisations can incubate the potential for crisis.<p></p> Originality/value – The paper seeks to bring together a disparate body of published work within the context of “organisational effectiveness” and sets out a series of dark characteristics that organisations need to consider if they are to avoid failure. The paper argues the case that effectiveness can be a fragile construct and that the mechanisms that generate failure also need to be actively considered when discussing what effectiveness means in practice.<p></p&gt

Netcitizenship: addressing cyberevenge and sexbullying

This article discusses the phenomena of Cyberevenge, sexbullying, and sextortion, especially among young people. The discussion, based on extensive review of books, research reports, newspapers, journal articles and pertinent websites, analyzes these challenges. The article suggests some remedies to counter these online social ills which pertain to promoting responsibility of netcitizens, schools, governments, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and social networking sites

Fighting Cybercrime After \u3cem\u3eUnited States v. Jones\u3c/em\u3e

In a landmark non-decision last term, five Justices of the United States Supreme Court would have held that citizens possess a Fourth Amendment right to expect that certain quantities of information about them will remain private, even if they have no such expectations with respect to any of the information or data constituting that whole. This quantitative approach to evaluating and protecting Fourth Amendment rights is certainly novel and raises serious conceptual, doctrinal, and practical challenges. In other works, we have met these challenges by engaging in a careful analysis of this “mosaic theory” and by proposing that courts focus on the technologies that make collecting and aggregating large quantities of information possible. In those efforts, we focused on reasonable expectations held by “the people” that they will not be subjected to broad and indiscriminate surveillance. These expectations are anchored in Founding-era concerns about the capacity for unfettered search powers to promote an authoritarian surveillance state. Although we also readily acknowledged that there are legitimate and competing governmental and law enforcement interests at stake in the deployment and use of surveillance technologies that implicate reasonable interests in quantitative privacy, we did little more. In this Article, we begin to address that omission by focusing on the legitimate governmental and law enforcement interests at stake in preventing, detecting, and prosecuting cyber-harassment and healthcare fraud

Governing in the Anthropocene: are there cyber-systemic antidotes to the malaise of modern governance?

The Anthropocene imposes new challenges for governments, demanding capabilities for dealing with complexity and uncertainty. In this paper we examine how effective governing of social-biophysical dynamics is constrained by current processes and systems of government. Framing choices and structural determinants combine to create governance deficits in multiple domains, particularly in relation to the governing of complex larger-scale social – biophysical systems. Attempts to build capability for governing ‘wicked problems’ are relevant to sustainability science and Anthropocene governance, but these have mostly failed to become institutionalised. Two cases studies are reported to elucidate how the systemic dynamics of governing operate and fail in relation to espoused purpose. In the UK attempts to enact ‘joined-up’ government’ during the years of New Labour government reveal systemic flaws and consistent praxis failures. From Australia we report on water governance reforms with implications for a wide range of complex policy issues. We conclude that innovations are needed to build capacity for governing the unfolding surprises and inherent uncertainties of the Anthropocene. These include institutionalising, or structural incorporation, of cyber-systemic thinking/practices that can also enhance empowerment and creativity that underpins sustainability science