Evaluation of methods for determining hardware projected life

An investigation of existing methods of predicting hardware life is summarized by reviewing programs having long life requirements, current research efforts on long life problems, and technical papers reporting work on life predicting techniques. The results indicate that there are no accurate quantitative means to predict hardware life for system level hardware. The effectiveness of test programs and the cause of hardware failures is considered

Methodology for designing accelerated aging tests for predicting life of photovoltaic arrays

A methodology for designing aging tests in which life prediction was paramount was developed. The methodology builds upon experience with regard to aging behavior in those material classes which are expected to be utilized as encapsulant elements, viz., glasses and polymers, and upon experience with the design of aging tests. The experiences were reviewed, and results are discussed in detail

The application of encapsulation material stability data to photovoltaic module life assessment

For any piece of hardware that degrades when subject to environmental and application stresses, the route or sequence that describes the degradation process may be summarized in terms of six key words: LOADS, RESPONSE, CHANGE, DAMAGE, FAILURE, and PENALTY. Applied to photovoltaic modules, these six factors form the core outline of an expanded failure analysis matrix for unifying and integrating relevant material degradation data and analyses. An important feature of this approach is the deliberate differentiation between factors such as CHANGE, DAMAGE, and FAILURE. The application of this outline to materials degradation research facilitates the distinction between quantifying material property changes and quantifying module damage or power loss with their economic consequences. The approach recommended for relating material stability data to photovoltaic module life is to use the degree of DAMAGE to (1) optical coupling, (2) encapsulant package integrity, (3) PV circuit integrity or (4) electrical isolation as the quantitative criterion for assessing module potential service life rather than simply using module power loss

Electricity from photovoltaic solar cells: Flat-Plate Solar Array Project final report. Volume VI: Engineering sciences and reliability

The Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project, funded by the U.S. Government and managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, was formed in 1975 to develop the module/array technology needed to attain widespread terrestrial use of photovoltaics by 1985. To accomplish this, the FSA Project established and managed an Industry, University, and Federal Government Team to perform the needed research and development. This volume of the series of final reports documenting the FSA Project deals with the Project's activities directed at developing the engineering technology base required to achieve modules that meet the functional, safety and reliability requirements of large-scale terrestrial photovoltaic systems applications. These activities included: (1) development of functional, safety, and reliability requirements for such applications; (2) development of the engineering analytical approaches, test techniques, and design solutions required to meet the requirements; (3) synthesis and procurement of candidate designs for test and evaluation; and (4) performance of extensive testing, evaluation, and failure analysis to define design shortfalls and, thus, areas requiring additional research and development. During the life of the FSA Project, these activities were known by and included a variety of evolving organizational titles: Design and Test, Large-Scale Procurements, Engineering, Engineering Sciences, Operations, Module Performance and Failure Analysis, and at the end of the Project, Reliability and Engineering Sciences. This volume provides both a summary of the approach and technical outcome of these activities and provides a complete Bibliography (Appendix A) of the published documentation covering the detailed accomplishments and technologies developed

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Study of space battery accelerated testing techniques. Phase 2 report - Ideal approaches towards accelerated tests and analysis of data

Ideal approaches to accelerated life tests and data analysis applied to space batterie

Comparison of different classification algorithms for fault detection and fault isolation in complex systems

Due to the lack of sufficient results seen in literature, feature extraction and classification methods of hydraulic systems appears to be somewhat challenging. This paper compares the performance of three classifiers (namely linear support vector machine (SVM), distance-weighted k-nearest neighbor (WKNN), and decision tree (DT) using data from optimized and non-optimized sensor set solutions. The algorithms are trained with known data and then tested with unknown data for different scenarios characterizing faults with different degrees of severity. This investigation is based solely on a data-driven approach and relies on data sets that are taken from experiments on the fuel system. The system that is used throughout this study is a typical fuel delivery system consisting of standard components such as a filter, pump, valve, nozzle, pipes, and two tanks. Running representative tests on a fuel system are problematic because of the time, cost, and reproduction constraints involved in capturing any significant degradation. Simulating significant degradation requires running over a considerable period; this cannot be reproduced quickly and is costly

Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 6: Engineering sciences and reliability

The Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project activities directed at developing the engineering technology base required to achieve modules that meet the functional, safety, and reliability requirements of large scale terrestrial photovoltaic systems applications are reported. These activities included: (1) development of functional, safety, and reliability requirements for such applications; (2) development of the engineering analytical approaches, test techniques, and design solutions required to meet the requirements; (3) synthesis and procurement of candidate designs for test and evaluation; and (4) performance of extensive testing, evaluation, and failure analysis of define design shortfalls and, thus, areas requiring additional research and development. A summary of the approach and technical outcome of these activities are provided along with a complete bibliography of the published documentation covering the detailed accomplishments and technologies developed

A practical contribution to quantitative accelerated testing of multi-failure mode products under multiple stresses

La mise en place d'un programme de tests accélérés (AT) est accompagnée de plusieurs préoccupations et incertitudes quant à l'estimation de la fiabilité qui peut causer un écart par rapport au service réel. Cette thèse vise à présenter les outils nécessaires et auxiliaires antérieurs aux tests, ainsi qu'à proposer des approches techniques et des analyses pour la mise en oeuvre de tests accélérés pour l'estimation de la fiabilité, la cornparaison de produits, l'identification des modes de défaillances critiques ainsi que la vérification de l'amélioration de la fiabilité (après modification de la conception). Tout programme de tests accélérés doit faire l'objet d'une investigation économique, de même que la similitude entre tests et modes de défaillances doit être vérifiée. L'existence de variables aléatoires dans le service en utilisant le profil et le temps de défaillance dans les tests accélérés sont les causes de l'incertitude pour estimer la fiabilité qui doit être résolu numériquement. La plupart des programmes de tests de dégradation accélérés ont été mis en oeuvre à des fins qualitatives et d'analyse de comparaison, de sorte que le concept de tests de dégradation accélérés doivent être étendus et généralisés au cas de produits sujets à de multiples modes de défaillance, avec ou sans modes de défaillance dépendants. Si des échantillons, neufs ou usagés, d'un produit sont disponibles; la méthode de vieillissement partielle est proposée afin de diminuer considérablement le temps de test