Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks: Algorithms and Applications

Bayesian networks are a class of probabilistic graphical models that have been widely used in various tasks for probabilistic inference and causal modeling. A Bayesian network provides a compact, flexible, and interpretable representation of a joint probability distribution. When the network structure is unknown but there are observational data at hand, one can try to learn the network structure from the data. This is called structure discovery. Structure discovery in Bayesian networks is a host of several interesting problem variants. In the optimal Bayesian network learning problem (we call this structure learning), one aims to find a Bayesian network that best explains the data and then utilizes this optimal Bayesian network for predictions or inferences. In others, we are interested in finding the local structural features that are highly probable (we call this structure discovery). Both structure learning and structure discovery are considered very hard because existing approaches to these problems require highly intensive computations. In this dissertation, we develop algorithms to achieve more accurate, efficient and scalable structure discovery in Bayesian networks and demonstrate these algorithms in applications of systems biology and educational data mining. Specifically, this study is conducted in five directions. First of all, we propose a novel heuristic algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning that takes advantage of the idea of curriculum learning and learns Bayesian network structures by stages. We prove theoretical advantages of our algorithm and also empirically show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art heuristic approach in learning Bayesian network structures. Secondly, we develop an algorithm to efficiently enumerate the k-best equivalence classes of Bayesian networks where Bayesian networks in the same equivalence class are equally expressive in terms of representing probability distributions. We demonstrate our algorithm in the task of Bayesian model averaging. Our approach goes beyond the maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) model by listing the most likely network structures and their relative likelihood and therefore has important applications in causal structure discovery. Thirdly, we study how parallelism can be used to tackle the exponential time and space complexity in the exact Bayesian structure discovery. We consider the problem of computing the exact posterior probabilities of directed edges in Bayesian networks. We present a parallel algorithm capable of computing the exact posterior probabilities of all possible directed edges with optimal parallel space efficiency and nearly optimal parallel time efficiency. We apply our algorithm to a biological data set for discovering the yeast pheromone response pathways. Fourthly, we develop novel algorithms for computing the exact posterior probabilities of ancestor relations in Bayesian networks. Existing algorithm assumes an order-modular prior over Bayesian networks that does not respect Markov equivalence. Our algorithm allows uniform prior and respects the Markov equivalence. We apply our algorithm to a biological data set for discovering protein signaling pathways. Finally, we introduce Combined student Modeling and prerequisite Discovery (COMMAND), a novel algorithm for jointly inferring a prerequisite graph and a student model from student performance data. COMMAND learns the skill prerequisite relations as a Bayesian network, which is capable of modeling the global prerequisite structure and capturing the conditional independence between skills. Our experiments on simulations and real student data suggest that COMMAND is better than prior methods in the literature. COMMAND is useful for designing intelligent tutoring systems that assess student knowledge or that offer remediation interventions to students

Parallelization of the PC Algorithm

This paper describes a parallel version of the PC algorithm for learning the structure of a Bayesian network from data. The PC algorithm is a constraint-based algorithm consisting of fi ve steps where the first step is to perform a set of (conditional) independence tests while the remaining four steps relate to identifying the structure of the Bayesian network using the results of the (conditional) independence tests. In this paper, we describe a new approach to parallelization of the (conditional) independence testing as experiments illustrate that this is by far the most time consuming step. The proposed parallel PC algorithm is evaluated on data sets generated at random from five different real- world Bayesian networks. The results demonstrate that signi cant time performance improvements are possible using the proposed algorithm

Parallelization of the PC Algorithm

Abstract. This paper describes a parallel version of the PC algorithm for learning the structure of a Bayesian network from data. The PC algorithm is a constraint-based algorithm consisting of five steps where the first step is to perform a set of (conditional) independence tests while the remaining four steps relate to identifying the structure of the Bayesian network using the results of the (conditional) independence tests. In this paper, we describe a new approach to parallelization of the (conditional) independence testing as experiments illustrate that this is by far the most time consuming step. The proposed parallel PC algorithm is evaluated on data sets generated at random from five different realworld Bayesian networks. The results demonstrate that significant time performance improvements are possible using the proposed algorithm

Practical Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Algorithms

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of thumb, or sometimes brute-force search. Much more appealing is the idea of developing automatic approaches which can optimize the performance of a given learning algorithm to the task at hand. In this work, we consider the automatic tuning problem within the framework of Bayesian optimization, in which a learning algorithm's generalization performance is modeled as a sample from a Gaussian process (GP). The tractable posterior distribution induced by the GP leads to efficient use of the information gathered by previous experiments, enabling optimal choices about what parameters to try next. Here we show how the effects of the Gaussian process prior and the associated inference procedure can have a large impact on the success or failure of Bayesian optimization. We show that thoughtful choices can lead to results that exceed expert-level performance in tuning machine learning algorithms. We also describe new algorithms that take into account the variable cost (duration) of learning experiments and that can leverage the presence of multiple cores for parallel experimentation. We show that these proposed algorithms improve on previous automatic procedures and can reach or surpass human expert-level optimization on a diverse set of contemporary algorithms including latent Dirichlet allocation, structured SVMs and convolutional neural networks

A Parallel Algorithm for Exact Bayesian Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks

Exact Bayesian structure discovery in Bayesian networks requires exponential time and space. Using dynamic programming (DP), the fastest known sequential algorithm computes the exact posterior probabilities of structural features in $O(2(d+1)n2^n)$ time and space, if the number of nodes (variables) in the Bayesian network is $n$ and the in-degree (the number of parents) per node is bounded by a constant $d$. Here we present a parallel algorithm capable of computing the exact posterior probabilities for all $n(n-1)$ edges with optimal parallel space efficiency and nearly optimal parallel time efficiency. That is, if $p=2^k$ processors are used, the run-time reduces to $O(5(d+1)n2^{n-k}+k(n-k)^d)$ and the space usage becomes $O(n2^{n-k})$ per processor. Our algorithm is based the observation that the subproblems in the sequential DP algorithm constitute a $n$-$D$ hypercube. We take a delicate way to coordinate the computation of correlated DP procedures such that large amount of data exchange is suppressed. Further, we develop parallel techniques for two variants of the well-known \emph{zeta transform}, which have applications outside the context of Bayesian networks. We demonstrate the capability of our algorithm on datasets with up to 33 variables and its scalability on up to 2048 processors. We apply our algorithm to a biological data set for discovering the yeast pheromone response pathways.Comment: 32 pages, 12 figure

Parallel Algorithms for Bayesian Networks Structure Learning with Applications in Systems Biology

The expression levels of thousands to tens of thousands of genes in a living cell are controlled by internal and external cues which act in a combinatorial manner that can be modeled as a network. High-throughput technologies, such as DNA-microarrays and next generation sequencing, allow for the measurement of gene expression levels on a whole-genome scale. In recent years, a wealth of microarray data probing gene expression under various biological conditions has been accumulated in public repositories, which facilitates uncovering the underlying transcriptional networks (gene networks). Due to the high data dimensionality and inherent complexity of gene interactions, this task inevitably requires automated computational approaches. Various models have been proposed for learning gene networks, with Bayesian networks (BNs) showing promise for the task. However, BN structure learning is an NP-hard problem and both exact and heuristic methods are computationally intensive with limited ability to produce large networks. To address these issues, we developed a set of parallel algorithms. First, we present a communication efficient parallel algorithm for exact BN structure learning, which is work-optimal provided that 2^n \u3e p.log(p), where n is the total number of variables, and p is the number of processors. This algorithm has space complexity within 1.41 of the optimal. Our empirical results demonstrate near perfect scaling on up to 2,048 processors. We further extend this work to the case of bounded node in-degree, where a limit d on the number of parents per variable is imposed. We characterize the algorithm\u27s run-time behavior as a function of d, establishing the range [n/3 - log(mn), ceil(n/2)) of values for d where it affects performance. Consequently, two plateaus regions are identified: for d \u3c n/3 - log(mn), where the run-time complexity remains the same as for d=1, and for d \u3e= ceil(n/2), where the run-time complexity remains the same as for d=n-1. Finally, we present a parallel heuristic approach for large-scale BN learning. This approach aims to combine the precision of exact learning with the scalability of heuristic methods. Our empirical results demonstrate good scaling on various high performance platforms. The quality of the learned networks for both exact and heuristic methods are evaluated using synthetically generated expression data. The biological relevance of the networks learned by the exact algorithm is assessed by applying it to the carotenoid biosynthesis pathway in Arabidopsis thaliana