482 research outputs found

    Prediction System for Covid-19 Upcoming Cases Using Ensemble Classification

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    An epidemic of the novel destructive Coronavirus has been spreading rapidly around the world since 2019 and has caused a great number of deaths. Providing patients with appropriate and most timely care is crucial to combating COVID-19 spread. Testing for the disease must be done quickly and accurately. Therefore, this paper developed an ensemble classification-based country-wise COVID-19 upcoming cases prediction model. This ensemble classification and prediction model shows the upcoming month's Corona virus cases, including newly confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths. This analysis is carried out based on these three cases occurring in different countries on sequential dates. The proposed model uses three famous classifiers, namely ANN, Gaussian Process and SVM which have different learning characteristics and architectures at the first stage. In the second stage, they combine their predictions with average calculations. Training and assessment of the proposed model were conducted using 75065 observations comprised of 61 features from John Hopkins University in Maryland. For data preparation, the envisioned work clusters the dataset based on world countries affected by COVID-19 separately. As a result, this set of clusters fetched data once again based on death, newly confirmed, and recovered cases. The experimental result shows the proposed ensemble model provides better performance when compared with previous classification algorithms

    Modelling human network behaviour using simulation and optimization tools: the need for hybridization

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    The inclusion of stakeholder behaviour in Operations Research / Industrial Engineering (OR/IE) models has gained much attention in recent years. Behavioural and cognitive traits of people and groups have been integrated in simulation models (mainly through agent-based approaches) as well as in optimization algorithms. However, especially the influence of relations between different actors in human networks is a broad and interdisciplinary topic that has not yet been fully investigated. This paper analyses, from an OR/IE point of view, the existing literature on behaviour-related factors in human networks. This review covers different application fields, including: supply chain management, public policies in emergency situations, and Internet-based human networks. The review reveals that the methodological approach of choice (either simulation or optimization) is highly dependent on the application area. However, an integrated approach combining simulation and optimization is rarely used. Thus, the paper proposes the hybridization of simulation with optimization as one of the best strategies to incorporate human behaviour in human networks and the resulting uncertainty, randomness, and dynamism in related OR/IE models.Peer Reviewe

    Models and algorithms for trauma network design.

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    Trauma continues to be the leading cause of death and disability in the US for people aged 44 and under, making it a major public health problem. The geographical maldistribution of Trauma Centers (TCs), and the resulting higher access time to the nearest TC, has been shown to impact trauma patient safety and increase disability or mortality. State governments often design a trauma network to provide prompt and definitive care to their citizens. However, this process is mainly manual and experience-based and often leads to a suboptimal network in terms of patient safety and resource utilization. This dissertation fills important voids in this domain and adds much-needed realism to develop insights that trauma decision-makers can use to design their trauma network. In this dissertation, we develop multiple optimization-based trauma network design approaches focusing minimizing mistriages and, in some cases, ensuring equity in care among regions. To mimic trauma care in practice, several realistic features are considered in our approach, which include the consideration of: (i) both severely and non-severely injured trauma patients and associated mistriages, (ii) intermediate trauma centers (ITCs) along with major trauma centers (MTCs), (iii) three dominant criteria for destination determination, and (iv) mistriages in on-scene clinical assessment of injuries. Our first contribution (Chapter 2) proposes the Trauma Center Location Problem (TCLP) that determines the optimal number and location of major trauma centers (MTCs) to improve patient safety. The bi-objective optimization model for TCLP explicitly considers both types of patients (severe and non-severe) and associated mistriages (specifically, system-related under- and over-triages) as a surrogate for patient safety. These mistriages are estimated using our proposed notional tasking algorithm that attempts to mimic the EMS on-scene decision of destination hospital and transportation mode. We develop a heuristic based on Particle Swarm Optimization framework to efficiently solve realistic problem sizes. We illustrate our approach using 2012 data from the state of OH and show that an optimized network for the state could achieve 31.5% improvement in patient safety compared to the 2012 network with the addition of just one MTC; redistribution of the 21 MTCs in the 2012 network led to a 30.4% improvement. Our second contribution (Chapter 3) introduces a Nested Trauma Network Design Problem (NTNDP), which is a nested multi-level, multi-customer, multi-transportation, multi-criteria, capacitated model. The NTNDP model has a bi-objective of maximizing the weighted sum of equity and effectiveness in patient safety. The proposed model includes intermediate trauma centers (TCs) that have been established in many US states to serve as feeder centers to major TCs. The model also incorporates three criteria used by EMS for destination determination; i.e., patient/family choice, closest facility, and protocol. Our proposed ‘3-phase’ approach efficiently solves the resulting MIP model by first solving a relaxed version of the model, then a Constraint Satisfaction Problem, and a modified version of the original optimization problem (if needed). A comprehensive experimental study is conducted to determine the sensitivity of the solutions to various system parameters. A case study is presented using 2019 data from the state of OH that shows more than 30% improvement in the patient safety objective. In our third contribution (Chapter 4), we introduce Trauma Network Design Problem considering Assessment-related Mistriages (TNDP-AM), where we explicitly consider mistriages in on-scene assessment of patient injuries by the EMS. The TNDP-AM model determines the number and location of major trauma centers to maximize patient safety. We model assessment-related mistriages using the Bernoulli random variable and propose a Simheuristic approach that integrates Monte Carlo Simulation with a genetic algorithm (GA) to solve the problem efficiently. Our findings indicate that the trauma network is susceptible to assessment-related mistriages; specifically, higher mistriages in assessing severe patients may lead to a 799% decrease in patient safety and potential clustering of MTCs near high trauma incidence rates. There are several implications of our findings to practice. State trauma decision-makers can use our approaches to not only better manage limited financial resources, but also understand the impact of changes in operational parameters on network performance. The design of training programs for EMS providers to build standardization in decision-making is another advantage

    Disease diagnosis in smart healthcare: Innovation, technologies and applications

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    To promote sustainable development, the smart city implies a global vision that merges artificial intelligence, big data, decision making, information and communication technology (ICT), and the internet-of-things (IoT). The ageing issue is an aspect that researchers, companies and government should devote efforts in developing smart healthcare innovative technology and applications. In this paper, the topic of disease diagnosis in smart healthcare is reviewed. Typical emerging optimization algorithms and machine learning algorithms are summarized. Evolutionary optimization, stochastic optimization and combinatorial optimization are covered. Owning to the fact that there are plenty of applications in healthcare, four applications in the field of diseases diagnosis (which also list in the top 10 causes of global death in 2015), namely cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia, and tuberculosis, are considered. In addition, challenges in the deployment of disease diagnosis in healthcare have been discussed

    Performance Evaluation of Smart Decision Support Systems on Healthcare

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    Medical activity requires responsibility not only from clinical knowledge and skill but also on the management of an enormous amount of information related to patient care. It is through proper treatment of information that experts can consistently build a healthy wellness policy. The primary objective for the development of decision support systems (DSSs) is to provide information to specialists when and where they are needed. These systems provide information, models, and data manipulation tools to help experts make better decisions in a variety of situations. Most of the challenges that smart DSSs face come from the great difficulty of dealing with large volumes of information, which is continuously generated by the most diverse types of devices and equipment, requiring high computational resources. This situation makes this type of system susceptible to not recovering information quickly for the decision making. As a result of this adversity, the information quality and the provision of an infrastructure capable of promoting the integration and articulation among different health information systems (HIS) become promising research topics in the field of electronic health (e-health) and that, for this same reason, are addressed in this research. The work described in this thesis is motivated by the need to propose novel approaches to deal with problems inherent to the acquisition, cleaning, integration, and aggregation of data obtained from different sources in e-health environments, as well as their analysis. To ensure the success of data integration and analysis in e-health environments, it is essential that machine-learning (ML) algorithms ensure system reliability. However, in this type of environment, it is not possible to guarantee a reliable scenario. This scenario makes intelligent SAD susceptible to predictive failures, which severely compromise overall system performance. On the other hand, systems can have their performance compromised due to the overload of information they can support. To solve some of these problems, this thesis presents several proposals and studies on the impact of ML algorithms in the monitoring and management of hypertensive disorders related to pregnancy of risk. The primary goals of the proposals presented in this thesis are to improve the overall performance of health information systems. In particular, ML-based methods are exploited to improve the prediction accuracy and optimize the use of monitoring device resources. It was demonstrated that the use of this type of strategy and methodology contributes to a significant increase in the performance of smart DSSs, not only concerning precision but also in the computational cost reduction used in the classification process. The observed results seek to contribute to the advance of state of the art in methods and strategies based on AI that aim to surpass some challenges that emerge from the integration and performance of the smart DSSs. With the use of algorithms based on AI, it is possible to quickly and automatically analyze a larger volume of complex data and focus on more accurate results, providing high-value predictions for a better decision making in real time and without human intervention.A atividade médica requer responsabilidade não apenas com base no conhecimento e na habilidade clínica, mas também na gestão de uma enorme quantidade de informações relacionadas ao atendimento ao paciente. É através do tratamento adequado das informações que os especialistas podem consistentemente construir uma política saudável de bem-estar. O principal objetivo para o desenvolvimento de sistemas de apoio à decisão (SAD) é fornecer informações aos especialistas onde e quando são necessárias. Esses sistemas fornecem informações, modelos e ferramentas de manipulação de dados para ajudar os especialistas a tomar melhores decisões em diversas situações. A maioria dos desafios que os SAD inteligentes enfrentam advêm da grande dificuldade de lidar com grandes volumes de dados, que é gerada constantemente pelos mais diversos tipos de dispositivos e equipamentos, exigindo elevados recursos computacionais. Essa situação torna este tipo de sistemas suscetível a não recuperar a informação rapidamente para a tomada de decisão. Como resultado dessa adversidade, a qualidade da informação e a provisão de uma infraestrutura capaz de promover a integração e a articulação entre diferentes sistemas de informação em saúde (SIS) tornam-se promissores tópicos de pesquisa no campo da saúde eletrônica (e-saúde) e que, por essa mesma razão, são abordadas nesta investigação. O trabalho descrito nesta tese é motivado pela necessidade de propor novas abordagens para lidar com os problemas inerentes à aquisição, limpeza, integração e agregação de dados obtidos de diferentes fontes em ambientes de e-saúde, bem como sua análise. Para garantir o sucesso da integração e análise de dados em ambientes e-saúde é importante que os algoritmos baseados em aprendizagem de máquina (AM) garantam a confiabilidade do sistema. No entanto, neste tipo de ambiente, não é possível garantir um cenário totalmente confiável. Esse cenário torna os SAD inteligentes suscetíveis à presença de falhas de predição que comprometem seriamente o desempenho geral do sistema. Por outro lado, os sistemas podem ter seu desempenho comprometido devido à sobrecarga de informações que podem suportar. Para tentar resolver alguns destes problemas, esta tese apresenta várias propostas e estudos sobre o impacto de algoritmos de AM na monitoria e gestão de transtornos hipertensivos relacionados com a gravidez (gestação) de risco. O objetivo das propostas apresentadas nesta tese é melhorar o desempenho global de sistemas de informação em saúde. Em particular, os métodos baseados em AM são explorados para melhorar a precisão da predição e otimizar o uso dos recursos dos dispositivos de monitorização. Ficou demonstrado que o uso deste tipo de estratégia e metodologia contribui para um aumento significativo do desempenho dos SAD inteligentes, não só em termos de precisão, mas também na diminuição do custo computacional utilizado no processo de classificação. Os resultados observados buscam contribuir para o avanço do estado da arte em métodos e estratégias baseadas em inteligência artificial que visam ultrapassar alguns desafios que advêm da integração e desempenho dos SAD inteligentes. Como o uso de algoritmos baseados em inteligência artificial é possível analisar de forma rápida e automática um volume maior de dados complexos e focar em resultados mais precisos, fornecendo previsões de alto valor para uma melhor tomada de decisão em tempo real e sem intervenção humana

    Particle swarm optimization with state-based adaptive velocity limit strategy

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    Velocity limit (VL) has been widely adopted in many variants of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to prevent particles from searching outside the solution space. Several adaptive VL strategies have been introduced with which the performance of PSO can be improved. However, the existing adaptive VL strategies simply adjust their VL based on iterations, leading to unsatisfactory optimization results because of the incompatibility between VL and the current searching state of particles. To deal with this problem, a novel PSO variant with state-based adaptive velocity limit strategy (PSO-SAVL) is proposed. In the proposed PSO-SAVL, VL is adaptively adjusted based on the evolutionary state estimation (ESE) in which a high value of VL is set for global searching state and a low value of VL is set for local searching state. Besides that, limit handling strategies have been modified and adopted to improve the capability of avoiding local optima. The good performance of PSO-SAVL has been experimentally validated on a wide range of benchmark functions with 50 dimensions. The satisfactory scalability of PSO-SAVL in high-dimension and large-scale problems is also verified. Besides, the merits of the strategies in PSO-SAVL are verified in experiments. Sensitivity analysis for the relevant hyper-parameters in state-based adaptive VL strategy is conducted, and insights in how to select these hyper-parameters are also discussed.Comment: 33 pages, 8 figure

    Data science, analytics and artificial intelligence in e-health : trends, applications and challenges

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    Acknowledgments. This work has been partially supported by the Divina Pastora Seguros company.More than ever, healthcare systems can use data, predictive models, and intelligent algorithms to optimize their operations and the service they provide. This paper reviews the existing literature regarding the use of data science/analytics methods and artificial intelligence algorithms in healthcare. The paper also discusses how healthcare organizations can benefit from these tools to efficiently deal with a myriad of new possibilities and strategies. Examples of real applications are discussed to illustrate the potential of these methods. Finally, the paper highlights the main challenges regarding the use of these methods in healthcare, as well as some open research lines
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