Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict

In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options

Studying, Teaching and Applying Sustainability Visions Using Systems Modeling

abstract: The objective of articulating sustainability visions through modeling is to enhance the outcomes and process of visioning in order to successfully move the system toward a desired state. Models emphasize approaches to develop visions that are viable and resilient and are crafted to adhere to sustainability principles. This approach is largely assembled from visioning processes (resulting in descriptions of desirable future states generated from stakeholder values and preferences) and participatory modeling processes (resulting in systems-based representations of future states co-produced by experts and stakeholders). Vision modeling is distinct from normative scenarios and backcasting processes in that the structure and function of the future desirable state is explicitly articulated as a systems model. Crafting, representing and evaluating the future desirable state as a systems model in participatory settings is intended to support compliance with sustainability visioning quality criteria (visionary, sustainable, systemic, coherent, plausible, tangible, relevant, nuanced, motivational and shared) in order to develop rigorous and operationalizable visions. We provide two empirical examples to demonstrate the incorporation of vision modeling in research practice and education settings. In both settings, vision modeling was used to develop, represent, simulate and evaluate future desirable states. This allowed participants to better identify, explore and scrutinize sustainability solutions

Foresight-Informed Agile For Resilient Product Strategy

Agile is today’s dominant operational framework in software product development due to its effectiveness at helping teams overcome dynamic and uncertain conditions. As external uncertainties increase, some organizations are also adopting Agile as a strategic approach. However, we hypothesize that while Agile contributes to adaptability, it is insufficient for an organization to be resilient against major disruptions. This research project studies the relationship between Agile software development and the strategic resilience of small-to-medium-sized organizations in Ontario, Canada. Using a mix of surveys and interviews with product leaders, we found that many teams’ strategic capability to be resilient is limited due to Agile’s narrow attention and short-term focus, encouraging teams to be reactive rather than proactive. We designed the Resilient Product Strategy Toolkit, which integrates proven Strategic Foresight practices with existing Agile and product management processes to help teams broaden their attention and increase their capability to manage uncertainty. This research design contributes to the plausibility of combining Agile and Strategic Foresight as an ambidextrous approach to enhance an organization’s strategic resilience