On martingale tail sums in affine two-color urn models with multiple drawings

In two recent works, Kuba and Mahmoud (arXiv:1503.090691 and arXiv:1509.09053) introduced the family of two-color affine balanced Polya urn schemes with multiple drawings. We show that, in large-index urns (urn index between $1/2$ and $1$) and triangular urns, the martingale tail sum for the number of balls of a given color admits both a Gaussian central limit theorem as well as a law of the iterated logarithm. The laws of the iterated logarithm are new even in the standard model when only one ball is drawn from the urn in each step (except for the classical Polya urn model). Finally, we prove that the martingale limits exhibit densities (bounded under suitable assumptions) and exponentially decaying tails. Applications are given in the context of node degrees in random linear recursive trees and random circuits.Comment: 17 page

Asymptotic results for a generalized Pòlya urn with delay and an applications to clinical trials

In this paper a new Pòlya urn model is introduced and studied; in particular, a strong law of large numbers and two central limit theorems are proven. This urn generalizes a model studied in Berti et al. (2004), May et al. (2005) and in Crimaldi (2007) and it has natural applications in clinical trials. Indeed, the model include both delayed and missing (or null) responses. Moreover, a connection with the conditional identity in distribution of Berti et al. (2004) is given.

Power-law behavior and condensation phenomena in disordered urn models

We investigate equilibrium statistical properties of urn models with disorder. Two urn models are proposed; one belongs to the Ehrenfest class, and the other corresponds to the Monkey class. These models are introduced from the view point of the power-law behavior and randomness; it is clarified that quenched random parameters play an important role in generating power-law behavior. We evaluate the occupation probability $P(k)$ with which an urn has $k$ balls by using the concept of statistical physics of disordered systems. In the disordered urn model belonging to the Monkey class, we find that above critical density $\rho_\mathrm{c}$ for a given temperature, condensation phenomenon occurs and the occupation probability changes its scaling behavior from an exponential-law to a heavy tailed power-law in large $k$ regime. We also discuss an interpretation of our results for explaining of macro-economy, in particular, emergence of wealth differentials.Comment: 16pages, 9figures, using iopart.cls, 2 new figures were adde

The CLT Analogue for Cyclic Urns

A cyclic urn is an urn model for balls of types $0,\ldots,m-1$ where in each draw the ball drawn, say of type $j$, is returned to the urn together with a new ball of type $j+1 \mod m$. The case $m=2$ is the well-known Friedman urn. The composition vector, i.e., the vector of the numbers of balls of each type after $n$ steps is, after normalization, known to be asymptotically normal for $2\le m\le 6$. For $m\ge 7$ the normalized composition vector does not converge. However, there is an almost sure approximation by a periodic random vector. In this paper the asymptotic fluctuations around this periodic random vector are identified. We show that these fluctuations are asymptotically normal for all $m\ge 7$. However, they are of maximal dimension $m-1$ only when $6$ does not divide $m$. For $m$ being a multiple of $6$ the fluctuations are supported by a two-dimensional subspace.Comment: Extended abstract to be replaced later by a full versio

Analytic urns

This article describes a purely analytic approach to urn models of the generalized or extended P\'olya-Eggenberger type, in the case of two types of balls and constant ``balance,'' that is, constant row sum. The treatment starts from a quasilinear first-order partial differential equation associated with a combinatorial renormalization of the model and bases itself on elementary conformal mapping arguments coupled with singularity analysis techniques. Probabilistic consequences in the case of ``subtractive'' urns are new representations for the probability distribution of the urn's composition at any time n, structural information on the shape of moments of all orders, estimates of the speed of convergence to the Gaussian limit and an explicit determination of the associated large deviation function. In the general case, analytic solutions involve Abelian integrals over the Fermat curve x^h+y^h=1. Several urn models, including a classical one associated with balanced trees (2-3 trees and fringe-balanced search trees) and related to a previous study of Panholzer and Prodinger, as well as all urns of balance 1 or 2 and a sporadic urn of balance 3, are shown to admit of explicit representations in terms of Weierstra\ss elliptic functions: these elliptic models appear precisely to correspond to regular tessellations of the Euclidean plane.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009117905000000026 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Regenerative tree growth: Binary self-similar continuum random trees and Poisson--Dirichlet compositions

We use a natural ordered extension of the Chinese Restaurant Process to grow a two-parameter family of binary self-similar continuum fragmentation trees. We provide an explicit embedding of Ford's sequence of alpha model trees in the continuum tree which we identified in a previous article as a distributional scaling limit of Ford's trees. In general, the Markov branching trees induced by the two-parameter growth rule are not sampling consistent, so the existence of compact limiting trees cannot be deduced from previous work on the sampling consistent case. We develop here a new approach to establish such limits, based on regenerative interval partitions and the urn-model description of sampling from Dirichlet random distributions.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOP445 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org