An Ensemble-based Approach to Click-Through Rate Prediction for Promoted Listings at Etsy

Etsy is a global marketplace where people across the world connect to make, buy and sell unique goods. Sellers at Etsy can promote their product listings via advertising campaigns similar to traditional sponsored search ads. Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is an integral part of online search advertising systems where it is utilized as an input to auctions which determine the final ranking of promoted listings to a particular user for each query. In this paper, we provide a holistic view of Etsy's promoted listings' CTR prediction system and propose an ensemble learning approach which is based on historical or behavioral signals for older listings as well as content-based features for new listings. We obtain representations from texts and images by utilizing state-of-the-art deep learning techniques and employ multimodal learning to combine these different signals. We compare the system to non-trivial baselines on a large-scale real world dataset from Etsy, demonstrating the effectiveness of the model and strong correlations between offline experiments and online performance. The paper is also the first technical overview to this kind of product in e-commerce context

An information assistant system for the prevention of tunnel vision in crisis management

In the crisis management environment, tunnel vision is a set of bias in decision makers’ cognitive process which often leads to incorrect understanding of the real crisis situation, biased perception of information, and improper decisions. The tunnel vision phenomenon is a consequence of both the challenges in the task and the natural limitation in a human being’s cognitive process. An information assistant system is proposed with the purpose of preventing tunnel vision. The system serves as a platform for monitoring the on-going crisis event. All information goes through the system before arrives at the user. The system enhances the data quality, reduces the data quantity and presents the crisis information in a manner that prevents or repairs the user’s cognitive overload. While working with such a system, the users (crisis managers) are expected to be more likely to stay aware of the actual situation, stay open minded to possibilities, and make proper decisions

Multimodal One-Shot Learning of Speech and Images

Imagine a robot is shown new concepts visually together with spoken tags, e.g. "milk", "eggs", "butter". After seeing one paired audio-visual example per class, it is shown a new set of unseen instances of these objects, and asked to pick the "milk". Without receiving any hard labels, could it learn to match the new continuous speech input to the correct visual instance? Although unimodal one-shot learning has been studied, where one labelled example in a single modality is given per class, this example motivates multimodal one-shot learning. Our main contribution is to formally define this task, and to propose several baseline and advanced models. We use a dataset of paired spoken and visual digits to specifically investigate recent advances in Siamese convolutional neural networks. Our best Siamese model achieves twice the accuracy of a nearest neighbour model using pixel-distance over images and dynamic time warping over speech in 11-way cross-modal matching.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, 3 tables; accepted to ICASSP 201

Crossmodal Attentive Skill Learner

This paper presents the Crossmodal Attentive Skill Learner (CASL), integrated with the recently-introduced Asynchronous Advantage Option-Critic (A2OC) architecture [Harb et al., 2017] to enable hierarchical reinforcement learning across multiple sensory inputs. We provide concrete examples where the approach not only improves performance in a single task, but accelerates transfer to new tasks. We demonstrate the attention mechanism anticipates and identifies useful latent features, while filtering irrelevant sensor modalities during execution. We modify the Arcade Learning Environment [Bellemare et al., 2013] to support audio queries, and conduct evaluations of crossmodal learning in the Atari 2600 game Amidar. Finally, building on the recent work of Babaeizadeh et al. [2017], we open-source a fast hybrid CPU-GPU implementation of CASL.Comment: International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS) 2018, NIPS 2017 Deep Reinforcement Learning Symposiu

Econometrics meets sentiment : an overview of methodology and applications

The advent of massive amounts of textual, audio, and visual data has spurred the development of econometric methodology to transform qualitative sentiment data into quantitative sentiment variables, and to use those variables in an econometric analysis of the relationships between sentiment and other variables. We survey this emerging research field and refer to it as sentometrics, which is a portmanteau of sentiment and econometrics. We provide a synthesis of the relevant methodological approaches, illustrate with empirical results, and discuss useful software

Knowledge will Propel Machine Understanding of Content: Extrapolating from Current Examples

Machine Learning has been a big success story during the AI resurgence. One particular stand out success relates to learning from a massive amount of data. In spite of early assertions of the unreasonable effectiveness of data, there is increasing recognition for utilizing knowledge whenever it is available or can be created purposefully. In this paper, we discuss the indispensable role of knowledge for deeper understanding of content where (i) large amounts of training data are unavailable, (ii) the objects to be recognized are complex, (e.g., implicit entities and highly subjective content), and (iii) applications need to use complementary or related data in multiple modalities/media. What brings us to the cusp of rapid progress is our ability to (a) create relevant and reliable knowledge and (b) carefully exploit knowledge to enhance ML/NLP techniques. Using diverse examples, we seek to foretell unprecedented progress in our ability for deeper understanding and exploitation of multimodal data and continued incorporation of knowledge in learning techniques.Comment: Pre-print of the paper accepted at 2017 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence (WI). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1610.0770