18,951 research outputs found
An Adaptive Interacting Wang-Landau Algorithm for Automatic Density Exploration
While statisticians are well-accustomed to performing exploratory analysis in
the modeling stage of an analysis, the notion of conducting preliminary
general-purpose exploratory analysis in the Monte Carlo stage (or more
generally, the model-fitting stage) of an analysis is an area which we feel
deserves much further attention. Towards this aim, this paper proposes a
general-purpose algorithm for automatic density exploration. The proposed
exploration algorithm combines and expands upon components from various
adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, with the Wang-Landau algorithm at
its heart. Additionally, the algorithm is run on interacting parallel chains --
a feature which both decreases computational cost as well as stabilizes the
algorithm, improving its ability to explore the density. Performance is studied
in several applications. Through a Bayesian variable selection example, the
authors demonstrate the convergence gains obtained with interacting chains. The
ability of the algorithm's adaptive proposal to induce mode-jumping is
illustrated through a trimodal density and a Bayesian mixture modeling
application. Lastly, through a 2D Ising model, the authors demonstrate the
ability of the algorithm to overcome the high correlations encountered in
spatial models.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures (the supplementary materials are included as
appendices
The iterated auxiliary particle filter
We present an offline, iterated particle filter to facilitate statistical
inference in general state space hidden Markov models. Given a model and a
sequence of observations, the associated marginal likelihood L is central to
likelihood-based inference for unknown statistical parameters. We define a
class of "twisted" models: each member is specified by a sequence of positive
functions psi and has an associated psi-auxiliary particle filter that provides
unbiased estimates of L. We identify a sequence psi* that is optimal in the
sense that the psi*-auxiliary particle filter's estimate of L has zero
variance. In practical applications, psi* is unknown so the psi*-auxiliary
particle filter cannot straightforwardly be implemented. We use an iterative
scheme to approximate psi*, and demonstrate empirically that the resulting
iterated auxiliary particle filter significantly outperforms the bootstrap
particle filter in challenging settings. Applications include parameter
estimation using a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
On computational tools for Bayesian data analysis
While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of
Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a
review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian
procedures. Recent innovations like Monte Carlo Markov chain, sequential Monte
Carlo methods and more recently Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques
have considerably increased the potential for Bayesian applications and they
have also opened new avenues for Bayesian inference, first and foremost
Bayesian model choice.Comment: This is a chapter for the book "Bayesian Methods and Expert
Elicitation" edited by Klaus Bocker, 23 pages, 9 figure
Sparsity-Promoting Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models
Sparsity-promoting priors have become increasingly popular over recent years
due to an increased number of regression and classification applications
involving a large number of predictors. In time series applications where
observations are collected over time, it is often unrealistic to assume that
the underlying sparsity pattern is fixed. We propose here an original class of
flexible Bayesian linear models for dynamic sparsity modelling. The proposed
class of models expands upon the existing Bayesian literature on sparse
regression using generalized multivariate hyperbolic distributions. The
properties of the models are explored through both analytic results and
simulation studies. We demonstrate the model on a financial application where
it is shown that it accurately represents the patterns seen in the analysis of
stock and derivative data, and is able to detect major events by filtering an
artificial portfolio of assets
Simulation in Statistics
Simulation has become a standard tool in statistics because it may be the
only tool available for analysing some classes of probabilistic models. We
review in this paper simulation tools that have been specifically derived to
address statistical challenges and, in particular, recent advances in the areas
of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, and approximate
Bayesian calculation (ABC) algorithms.Comment: Draft of an advanced tutorial paper for the Proceedings of the 2011
Winter Simulation Conferenc
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