A Statistical Toolbox For Mining And Modeling Spatial Data

Most data mining projects in spatial economics start with an evaluation of a set of attribute variables on a sample of spatial entities, looking for the existence and strength of spatial autocorrelation, based on the Moran’s and the Geary’s coefficients, the adequacy of which is rarely challenged, despite the fact that when reporting on their properties, many users seem likely to make mistakes and to foster confusion. My paper begins by a critical appraisal of the classical definition and rational of these indices. I argue that while intuitively founded, they are plagued by an inconsistency in their conception. Then, I propose a principled small change leading to corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients, which strongly simplifies their relationship, and opens the way to an augmented toolbox of statistical methods of dimension reduction and data visualization, also useful for modeling purposes. A second section presents a formal framework, adapted from recent work in statistical learning, which gives theoretical support to our definition of corrected spatial autocorrelation coefficients. More specifically, the multivariate data mining methods presented here, are easily implementable on the existing (free) software, yield methods useful to exploit the proposed corrections in spatial data analysis practice, and, from a mathematical point of view, whose asymptotic behavior, already studied in a series of papers by Belkin & Niyogi, suggests that they own qualities of robustness and a limited sensitivity to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), valuable in exploratory spatial data analysis

The SUMO toolbox: a tool for automatic regression modeling and active learning

Many complex, real world phenomena are difficult to study directly using controlled experiments. Instead, the use of computer simulations has become commonplace as a feasible alternative. Due to the computational cost of these high fidelity simulations, surrogate models are often employed as a drop-in replacement for the original simulator, in order to reduce evaluation times. In this context, neural networks, kernel methods, and other modeling techniques have become indispensable. Surrogate models have proven to be very useful for tasks such as optimization, design space exploration, visualization, prototyping and sensitivity analysis. We present a fully automated machine learning tool for generating accurate surrogate models, using active learning techniques to minimize the number of simulations and to maximize efficiency

PSO based Neural Networks vs. Traditional Statistical Models for Seasonal Time Series Forecasting

Seasonality is a distinctive characteristic which is often observed in many practical time series. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a class of promising models for efficiently recognizing and forecasting seasonal patterns. In this paper, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach is used to enhance the forecasting strengths of feedforward ANN (FANN) as well as Elman ANN (EANN) models for seasonal data. Three widely popular versions of the basic PSO algorithm, viz. Trelea-I, Trelea-II and Clerc-Type1 are considered here. The empirical analysis is conducted on three real-world seasonal time series. Results clearly show that each version of the PSO algorithm achieves notably better forecasting accuracies than the standard Backpropagation (BP) training method for both FANN and EANN models. The neural network forecasting results are also compared with those from the three traditional statistical models, viz. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters (HW) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The comparison demonstrates that both PSO and BP based neural networks outperform SARIMA, HW and SVM models for all three time series datasets. The forecasting performances of ANNs are further improved through combining the outputs from the three PSO based models.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, 31 references, conference proceeding

Simulation-based high-level synthesis of Nyquist-rate data converters using MATLAB/SIMULINK

This paper presents a toolbox for the simulation, optimization and high-level synthesis of Nyquist-rate Analog-to-Digital (A/D) and Digital-to-Analog (D/A) Converters in MATLAB®. The embedded simulator uses SIMULINK® C-coded S-functions to model all required subcircuits including their main error mechanisms. This approach allows to drastically speed up the simulation CPU-time up to 2 orders of magnitude as compared with previous approaches - based on the use of SIMULINK® elementary blocks. Moreover, S-functions are more suitable for implementing a more detailed description of the circuit. For all subcircuits, the accuracy of the behavioral models has been verified by electrical simulation using HSPICE. For synthesis purposes, the simulator is used for performance evaluation and combined with an hybrid optimizer for design parameter selection. The optimizer combines adaptive statistical optimization algorithm inspired in simulated annealing with a design-oriented formulation of the cost function. It has been integrated in the MATLAB/SIMULINK® platform by using the MATLAB® engine library, so that the optimization core runs in background while MATLAB® acts as a computation engine. The implementation on the MATLAB® platform brings numerous advantages in terms of signal processing, high flexibility for tool expansion and simulation with other electronic subsystems. Additionally, the presented toolbox comprises a friendly graphical user interface to allow the designer to browse through all steps of the simulation, synthesis and post-processing of results. In order to illustrate the capabilities of the toolbox, a 0.13)im CMOS 12bit@80MS/s analog front-end for broadband power line communications, made up of a pipeline ADC and a current steering DAC, is synthesized and high-level sized. Different experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología TIC2003-02355RAICONI

A Factor Graph Approach to Automated Design of Bayesian Signal Processing Algorithms

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.Comment: Accepted for publication in the International Journal of Approximate Reasonin

Granger causality analysis in neuroscience and neuroimaging

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