Mixed-Integer Convex Nonlinear Optimization with Gradient-Boosted Trees Embedded

Decision trees usefully represent sparse, high dimensional and noisy data. Having learned a function from this data, we may want to thereafter integrate the function into a larger decision-making problem, e.g., for picking the best chemical process catalyst. We study a large-scale, industrially-relevant mixed-integer nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem involving both gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions mitigating risk. This mixed-integer optimization problem with convex penalty terms broadly applies to optimizing pre-trained regression tree models. Decision makers may wish to optimize discrete models to repurpose legacy predictive models, or they may wish to optimize a discrete model that particularly well-represents a data set. We develop several heuristic methods to find feasible solutions, and an exact, branch-and-bound algorithm leveraging structural properties of the gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions. We computationally test our methods on concrete mixture design instance and a chemical catalysis industrial instance

Weighted Polynomial Approximations: Limits for Learning and Pseudorandomness

Polynomial approximations to boolean functions have led to many positive results in computer science. In particular, polynomial approximations to the sign function underly algorithms for agnostically learning halfspaces, as well as pseudorandom generators for halfspaces. In this work, we investigate the limits of these techniques by proving inapproximability results for the sign function. Firstly, the polynomial regression algorithm of Kalai et al. (SIAM J. Comput. 2008) shows that halfspaces can be learned with respect to log-concave distributions on $\mathbb{R}^n$ in the challenging agnostic learning model. The power of this algorithm relies on the fact that under log-concave distributions, halfspaces can be approximated arbitrarily well by low-degree polynomials. We ask whether this technique can be extended beyond log-concave distributions, and establish a negative result. We show that polynomials of any degree cannot approximate the sign function to within arbitrarily low error for a large class of non-log-concave distributions on the real line, including those with densities proportional to $\exp(-|x|^{0.99})$. Secondly, we investigate the derandomization of Chernoff-type concentration inequalities. Chernoff-type tail bounds on sums of independent random variables have pervasive applications in theoretical computer science. Schmidt et al. (SIAM J. Discrete Math. 1995) showed that these inequalities can be established for sums of random variables with only $O(\log(1/\delta))$-wise independence, for a tail probability of $\delta$. We show that their results are tight up to constant factors. These results rely on techniques from weighted approximation theory, which studies how well functions on the real line can be approximated by polynomials under various distributions. We believe that these techniques will have further applications in other areas of computer science.Comment: 22 page

JUNIPR: a Framework for Unsupervised Machine Learning in Particle Physics

In applications of machine learning to particle physics, a persistent challenge is how to go beyond discrimination to learn about the underlying physics. To this end, a powerful tool would be a framework for unsupervised learning, where the machine learns the intricate high-dimensional contours of the data upon which it is trained, without reference to pre-established labels. In order to approach such a complex task, an unsupervised network must be structured intelligently, based on a qualitative understanding of the data. In this paper, we scaffold the neural network's architecture around a leading-order model of the physics underlying the data. In addition to making unsupervised learning tractable, this design actually alleviates existing tensions between performance and interpretability. We call the framework JUNIPR: "Jets from UNsupervised Interpretable PRobabilistic models". In this approach, the set of particle momenta composing a jet are clustered into a binary tree that the neural network examines sequentially. Training is unsupervised and unrestricted: the network could decide that the data bears little correspondence to the chosen tree structure. However, when there is a correspondence, the network's output along the tree has a direct physical interpretation. JUNIPR models can perform discrimination tasks, through the statistically optimal likelihood-ratio test, and they permit visualizations of discrimination power at each branching in a jet's tree. Additionally, JUNIPR models provide a probability distribution from which events can be drawn, providing a data-driven Monte Carlo generator. As a third application, JUNIPR models can reweight events from one (e.g. simulated) data set to agree with distributions from another (e.g. experimental) data set.Comment: 37 pages, 24 figure

Multi-Modal Mean-Fields via Cardinality-Based Clamping

Mean Field inference is central to statistical physics. It has attracted much interest in the Computer Vision community to efficiently solve problems expressible in terms of large Conditional Random Fields. However, since it models the posterior probability distribution as a product of marginal probabilities, it may fail to properly account for important dependencies between variables. We therefore replace the fully factorized distribution of Mean Field by a weighted mixture of such distributions, that similarly minimizes the KL-Divergence to the true posterior. By introducing two new ideas, namely, conditioning on groups of variables instead of single ones and using a parameter of the conditional random field potentials, that we identify to the temperature in the sense of statistical physics to select such groups, we can perform this minimization efficiently. Our extension of the clamping method proposed in previous works allows us to both produce a more descriptive approximation of the true posterior and, inspired by the diverse MAP paradigms, fit a mixture of Mean Field approximations. We demonstrate that this positively impacts real-world algorithms that initially relied on mean fields.Comment: Submitted for review to CVPR 201

Efficient Non-parametric Bayesian Hawkes Processes

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Utilizing the stationarity of the Hawkes process, we efficiently sample random branching structures and thus, we split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes. We derive two algorithms -- a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on expectation maximization -- and we show that our methods have a linear time complexity, both theoretically and empirically. On synthetic data, we show our methods to be able to infer flexible Hawkes triggering kernels. On two large-scale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that our methods outperform the current state-of-the-art in goodness-of-fit and that the time complexity is linear in the size of the dataset. We also observe that on diffusions related to online videos, the learned kernels reflect the perceived longevity for different content types such as music or pets videos