A decision support model for management of fuzziness in global risk assessment

Solving decision-making problems requires efficient handling of uncertainties. This task has been usually performed by means of expert systems which are based on classical logic and, therefore, need special methods such as heuristic approaches, probability theory, possibility theory, and fuzzy theory. The later approach, fuzzy reasoning and logic, offers a more natural way of handling uncertainty since it is similar to human logical reasoning. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy logic model for assessment and prediction of country risk. This fuzzy method provides a systematic approach to analyzing a target country. By its nature, the decision making for global market involves various uncertain criteria; therefore, the fuzzy approach is suitable for this kind of analysis. The advantages of the approach are inclusion of economic data, consideration of political/social factors, and the ability to handle exact and fuzzy data

The VEX-93 environment as a hybrid tool for developing knowledge systems with different problem solving techniques

The paper describes VEX-93 as a hybrid environment for developing knowledge-based and problem solver systems. It integrates methods and techniques from artificial intelligence, image and signal processing and data analysis, which can be mixed. Two hierarchical levels of reasoning contains an intelligent toolbox with one upper strategic inference engine and four lower ones containing specific reasoning models: truth-functional (rule-based), probabilistic (causal networks), fuzzy (rule-based) and case-based (frames). There are image/signal processing-analysis capabilities in the form of programming languages with more than one hundred primitive functions. User-made programs are embeddable within knowledge basis, allowing the combination of perception and reasoning. The data analyzer toolbox contains a collection of numerical classification, pattern recognition and ordination methods, with neural network tools and a data base query language at inference engines's disposal. VEX-93 is an open system able to communicate with external computer programs relevant to a particular application. Metaknowledge can be used for elaborate conclusions, and man-machine interaction includes, besides windows and graphical interfaces, acceptance of voice commands and production of speech output. The system was conceived for real-world applications in general domains, but an example of a concrete medical diagnostic support system at present under completion as a cuban-spanish project is mentioned. Present version of VEX-93 is a huge system composed by about one and half millions of lines of C code and runs in microcomputers under Windows 3.1.Postprint (published version

Intelligent Temperature-Controlled Poultry Feed Dispensing System with Fuzzy Logic Algorithm

This study introduces a novel fuzzy logic algorithm tailored to the thermoneutral zone of poultry, offering a precise and adaptive approach to feed dispensation. This involved the utilization of an LCD module to present essential information such as the selected age, real-time ambient temperature, current time, and the dispensed feed quantity. Data gathered during the process were stored in a memory device. The design of the fuzzy logic algorithm centered on the thermoneutral zone of the chicken serves as the determinant for feed dispensed by the system. It's crucial to note that while the system lacked artificial intelligence (AI), its logical analysis operated based on the fuzzy logic algorithm. Rigorous testing ensued, encompassing the comparison of feed dispensation between automated and manual systems and the assessment of feed waste and broiler weight.  Significant feed waste reduction in the first week demonstrated the efficacy of the fuzzy-based method, with consistently low p-values of 0.00069, 0.015195, and 0.034 across subsequent weeks confirming the consistent outperformance in broiler weight compared to the traditional feeding technique. The findings contribute to the advancement of temperature-based poultry feed systems, addressing key challenges in optimizing feed quantity. The study successfully met its objectives, demonstrating the system's capability to dispense feeds effectively across varying ambient temperatures.  Notably, the study revealed a consistent alignment of system outputs with those obtained from a digital thermometer and digital weighing scale, confirming the accuracy and reliability of the temperature-based feed dispensing system

Forecasting Enrollment Model Based on First-Order Fuzzy Time Series

This paper proposes a novel improvement of forecasting approach based on using time-invariant fuzzy time series. In contrast to traditional forecasting methods, fuzzy time series can be also applied to problems, in which historical data are linguistic values. It is shown that proposed time-invariant method improves the performance of forecasting process. Further, the effect of using different number of fuzzy sets is tested as well. As with the most of cited papers, historical enrollment of the University of Alabama is used in this study to illustrate the forecasting process. Subsequently, the performance of the proposed method is compared with existing fuzzy time series time-invariant models based on forecasting accuracy. It reveals a certain performance superiority of the proposed method over methods described in the literature

Arguments Whose Strength Depends on Continuous Variation

Both the traditional Aristotelian and modern symbolic approaches to logic have seen logic in terms of discrete symbol processing. Yet there are several kinds of argument whose validity depends on some topological notion of continuous variation, which is not well captured by discrete symbols. Examples include extrapolation and slippery slope arguments, sorites, fuzzy logic, and those involving closeness of possible worlds. It is argued that the natural first attempts to analyze these notions and explain their relation to reasoning fail, so that ignorance of their nature is profound