The use of trend forecasting in the product development process

Fashion trend forecasting is often personnel and company dependant and is more likely to be influenced by intuition and personal inspiration. Trend forecasting had been regarded as a driving force of the fashion industry in determining the new fashion trends in fabric, colour and style. There is a dearth of information on the utilisation and application of trend forecasting. There was a need to explore the application of trend forecasting within contemporary design and retail environments. Hence, the rationale of this investigation was to identify how and where trend forecasting is incorporated in the product development process. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) provided the framework to the primary research. The process focussed on the trend forecasting agencies and how trend forecasting was used by the fashion industry. The concept of fast fashion and its role in changing the model of fashion trend forecasting was critically analysed working through the stages of SSM. Interview data and process mapping were used to establish theoretical models which were tested, refined and validated for the timescales and process used in seasonal and fast fashion contexts. The research was addressed within the context of the UK clothing sector. From an initial analysis of the issues, shortcomings were identified in the seasonal process. These were linked to the buyers and designers having limited communication and fragmented decision making during the range planning process. The ‘open to buy’ process conducted at the end of the range planning season to address ‘close to season’ fashion relies upon repeated orders and unplanned inputs, copied from their competitors. This is because it is difficult to design completely new garments for the required timeframe. In the fast fashion process, it was found the designers had no input into the ‘bought-in’ fashion range resulting in a lack of continuity of how the total range would appear. Fast fashion relies upon ‘bought-in’ fashion and the ‘open to buy’ process relies upon trends based on ‘current influences’ and repeat orders because it is quicker than producing completely new garments within a reduced timescale. The final phase of this research contributes to a new synthesis of information relating to trend forecasting in contemporary design, marketing and retailing environments. A critique of the theoretical models was carried out for areas not discussed before with trend forecasters, buyers and designers. These industry personnel explained how trend forecasting was used in the model stages, alternatives to trend forecasting, the process, timeline and how ‘bought-in’ fashion is used as a solution to fast fashion. This research has resulted in revised models where trend forecasting is successfully located within the seasonal and fast fashion product development. The crux of this research identified the consultation meetings and communication channels which were accurately located in the new models. The models document how key personnel interact, specifically the trend forecaster, the product line manager, the designer and the buyer. In the fast fashion model the ‘bought-in’ range is clearly distinguished from the seasonal range. The new models quantify the timeline for seasonal fashion, fast fashion and ‘open to buy’. The current fashion forecasting system is derived from seasonal fashion and therefore reliant on long lead times. The rise of fast fashion provided the opportunity to identify a taxonomy of models with a shortened time frame. The original contribution to knowledge lies in the seasonal and fast fashion models directly arising from this research, that would facilitate the key personnel involved in the fashion industry to incorporate in their new product development. This results in greater involvement of personnel leading to efficient utilisation of time, resources and expertise in the trend forecasting process

Trends and tradition: Negotiating different cultural models in relation to sustainable craft and artisan production

If the identity of ‘design’ as a practice is contested then the relationship of design and designers to craft and craft practices can be hugely confused. This lack of clarity can encourage non-design based organisations to promote the use of ‘trend forecasting’ as a panacea to the design dilemma associated with craft production for non-traditional markets. Consequently fashion sensitive trends become perceived as the driving force of design-led consumption. In this context how do we understand what ‘trend forecasting’ is and becomes when used in this manner? How does it contribute or not to the sustainability of local design cultures? This paper examines how these challenges have been interrogated and experienced through practice at Masters Level at Central Saint Martins College of Art and Design. It seeks sustainable strategies for design and craft drawing on a diverse range of examples to illustrate contemporary artefacts realised from a diverse range of projects, sources and geographical locations

A Colour Selection System to Better Inform the Colour Forecasting Process

Colour forecasting is a process where attempts are made to accurately forecast colour for fashion-related products that consumers will purchase in the near future. Seasonal colours are recognised as a powerful driving force of fashion-related products and consumer research of desires and preferences has become an important integral part of design and marketing processes. Trend forecasts are marketed globally by forecast companies to many fashion-related industries in order to increase their market coverage. They do not take into account colour acceptance levels of target markets on which fashion-related industries focus their design and marketing efforts. The information they sell is broad and generalised, even so, they claim to aim for 80% accuracy in their predictions. In a previous study, the anticipation of consumer acceptance was identified as the weakness of the current colour forecasting process. An improved system model, which replaced the anticipation stage with consumer colour acceptance data was conceptually developed and tested. In order to generate sales on the high street, this improved process requires accurate knowledge of consumer colour acceptance which would entail additional cost and time for the fashion industry to implement. It is therefore critical for a tool to be made available that does this part of the process for them. Hence, this research proposes to establish a framework necessary to develop and provide such a colour selection tool that will enable the users of colour forecasting information to generate colour ranges for their products that will have greater consumer acceptance. The tool will enable fashion companies to take control of their own colour forecasting process through the colour selections they make for their ranges. Essentially the tool will benefit the UK fashion industry’s competitiveness in the global market and assist waste reduction (unwanted goods) that impact on the environment

Trends and Design Relating literature to industry practice

In a crowded market place, where technology and functionality are not enough to differentiate a product from its competitors, the product’s appearance is a major driver of consumer preference. But preferences change over time, and product forms need to reflect this in order to stay relevant. This paper addresses the usage of trends by designers to inform the design and evolution of their products. Published theory regarding trends in product form exists in the fashion and consumer behaviour domains, but not in direct relation to the design of consumer products. This paper is preceded by a synthesis of literature in adjacent fields and compares the literature understanding with real industrial practice. Interviews with 9 professionals in trend research, design consultancy, furniture, fashion and architecture, were undertaken to explore the value and usage of trends across a variety of creative fields. The interview data were used to corroborate and enhance the literature understanding. In addition, the study also provides some emerging comparisons between design disciplines. The product designers interviewed were unlikely to use formal trend research methods: inspiration, tacit knowledge and experience accounts for much of their creative output. However, trend consultancies have developed methods of identifying and using trends to develop products for 5-10 years in the future. The fashion industry also has established ways of to rapidly identify or predict trend information. Keywords: Product form; trends; fashion; foresight</p

Indian Organised Apparel Retail Sector and DSS (Decision Support Systems)

Indian apparel retail sector poses interesting challenges to a manager as it is evolving and closely linked to fashions. Appealing mainly to youth, the sector has typical information requirements to manage its operations. DSS (Decision Support Systems) provide timely and accurate information & it can be viewed as an integrated entity providing management with the tools and information to assist their decision making. The study exploratory in nature, adopts a case study approach to understand practices of organized retailers in apparel sector regarding applications of various DSS tools. Conceptual overview of DSS is undertaken by reviewing the literature. The study describes practices and usage of DSS in operational decisions in apparel sector and managerial issues in design and implementation of DSS. A multi brand local chain and multi brand national chain of apparel was chosen for the study. Varied tools were found to be used by them. It was also found that for sales forecasting and visual merchandising decisions, prior experience rather than any DSS tool was used. The benefits realized were; “help as diagnostic tool”, “accuracy of records and in billing”, “smooth operations”. The implementation issues highlighted by the store managers were; more initial teething problems rather than resistance on the part of employees of the store, need for investment of time & money in training, due to rapid technological advancements, time to time updation in DSS tools is required . Majority of operational decisions like inventory management, CRM, campaign management were handled by ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) or POS (Point of Sale). Prioritization as well as quantification of benefits was not attempted. The issues of coordination, integration with other systems in case of ERP usage, training were highlighted. Future outlook of DSS seems bright as apparel retailers are keen to invest in technology.

Real-time co-ordinated resource management in a computational enviroment

Design co-ordination is an emerging engineering design management philosophy with its emphasis on timeliness and appropriateness. Furthermore, a key element of design coordination has been identified as resource management, the aim of which is to facilitate the optimised use of resources throughout a dynamic and changeable process. An approach to operational design co-ordination has been developed, which incorporates the appropriate techniques to ensure that the aim of co-ordinated resource management can be fulfilled. This approach has been realised within an agent-based software system, called the Design Coordination System (DCS), such that a computational design analysis can be managed in a coherent and co-ordinated manner. The DCS is applied to a computational analysis for turbine blade design provided by industry. The application of the DCS involves resources, i.e. workstations within a computer network, being utilised to perform the computational analysis involving the use of a suite of software tools to calculate stress and vibration characteristics of turbine blades. Furthermore, the application of the system shows that the utilisation of resources can be optimised throughout the computational design analysis despite the variable nature of the computer network