Decision Making Analysis for an Integrated Risk Management Framework of Maritime Container Port Infrastructure and Transportation Systems

This research proposes a risk management framework and develops generic risk-based decision-making, and risk-assessment models for dealing with potential Hazard Events (HEs) and risks associated with uncertainty for Operational Safety Performance (OSP) in container terminals and maritime ports. Three main sections are formulated in this study: Section 1: Risk Assessment, in the first phase, all HEs are identified through a literature review and human knowledge base and expertise. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule Base (FRB) is developed using the proportion method to assess the most significant HEs identified. The FRB leads to the development of a generic risk-based model incorporating the FRB and a Bayesian Network (BN) into a Fuzzy Rule Base Bayesian Network (FRBN) method using Hugin software to evaluate each HE individually and prioritise their specific risk estimations locally. The third phase demonstrated the FRBN method with a case study. The fourth phase concludes this section with a developed generic risk-based model incorporating FRBN and Evidential Reasoning to form an FRBER method using the Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software to evaluate all HEs aggregated collectively for their Risk Influence (RI) globally with a case study demonstration. In addition, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed to rank the HEs based on their True Risk Influence (TRI) considering their specific risk estimations locally and their RI globally. Section 2: Risk Models Simulations, the first phase explains the construction of the simulation model Bayesian Network Artificial Neural Networks (BNANNs), which is formed by applying Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In the second phase, the simulation model Evidential Reasoning Artificial Neural Networks (ERANNs) is constructed. The final phase in this section integrates the BNANNs and ERANNs that can predict the risk magnitude for HEs and provide a panoramic view on the risk inference in both perspectives, locally and globally. Section 3: Risk Control Options is the last link that finalises the risk management based methodology cycle in this study. The Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) method was used for determining the relative weights of all criteria identified in the first phase. The last phase develops a risk control options method by incorporating Fuzzy Logic (FL) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to form an FTOPSIS method. The novelty of this research provides an effective risk management framework for OSP in container terminals and maritime ports. In addition, it provides an efficient safety prediction tool that can ease all the processes in the methods and techniques used with the risk management framework by applying the ANN concept to simulate the risk models

Risk Assessment and Management of Petroleum Transportation Systems Operations

Petroleum Transportation Systems (PTSs) have a significant impact on the flow of crude oil within a Petroleum Supply Chain (PSC), due to the great demand on this natural product. Such systems are used for safe movement of crude and/or refined products from starting points (i.e. production sites or storage tanks), to their final destinations, via land or sea transportation. PTSs are vulnerable to several risks because they often operate in a dynamic environment. Due to this environment, many potential risks and uncertainties are involved. Not only having a direct effect on the product flow within PSC, PTSs accidents could also have severe consequences for the humans, businesses, and the environment. Therefore, safe operations of the key systems such as port, ship and pipeline, are vital for the success of PTSs. This research introduces an advanced approach to ensure safety of PTSs. This research proposes multiple network analysis, risk assessment, uncertainties treatment and decision making techniques for dealing with potential hazards and operational issues that are happening within the marine ports, ships, or pipeline transportation segments within one complete system. The main phases of the developed framework are formulated in six steps. In the first phase of the research, the hazards in PTSs operations that can lead to a crude oil spill are identified through conducting an extensive review of literature and experts’ knowledge. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning (FRBBR) and Hugin software are applied in the new context of PTSs to assess and prioritise the local PTSs failures as one complete system. The third phase uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to determine the weight of PTSs local factors. In the fourth phase, network analysis approach is used to measure the importance of petroleum ports, ships and pipelines systems globally within Petroleum Transportation Networks (PTNs). This approach can help decision makers to measure and detect the critical nodes (ports and transportation routes) within PTNs. The fifth phase uses an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software, to assess hazards influencing on PTSs as one complete system. This research developed an advance risk-based framework applied ER approach due to its ability to combine the local/internal and global/external risk analysis results of the PTSs. To complete the cycle of this study, the best mitigating strategies are introduced and evaluated by incorporating VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and AHP to rank the risk control options. The novelty of this framework provides decision makers with realistic and flexible results to ensure efficient and safe operations for PTSs

A Defect-Based Approach for Detailed Condition Assessment of Concrete Bridges

Bridge condition assessment is one of the most essential elements of Bridge Management Systems (BMS). This is owing to the fact that available inputs from assessment reports are constantly interpreted for maintenance decisions and budget allocation to critical bridges within a region’s inventory. Thus, performing effective bridge assessment is vital to ensure safety and sustainability of the bridge infrastructure. In practice, the evaluation of concrete bridges is mostly conducted on the basis of visual inspection, which is associated with considerable subjectivity and uncertainty inherent in human judgments. Additionally, current bridge assessment practices were found to be oversimplified, with conclusions being often drawn in absence of in-depth review and consideration of critical factors. To remediate the existing shortcomings and ameliorate the bridge assessment process, this study proposes a fuzzy Hierarchical Evidential Reasoning (HER) approach for detailed condition assessment of concrete bridges under uncertainty. The essence of the suggested framework addresses the treatment and aggregation of uncertain measurements of detected bridge defects, in a systematic manner, to establish an enhanced platform for reliable and detailed bridge assessment. The significant features of this methodology can be summarized in the following points. First, the proposed approach utilizes a generic hierarchy that models the several levels of a concrete bridge under assessment; namely: bridge components, elements, and measured defects. Second, the proposed model is set to account for relative importance weights of all assessment factors in the hierarchical breakdown. Third, a novel HER assessment belief structure is employed to grip probabilistic uncertainty (ignorance) in bridge evaluation, whereas fuzzy uncertainty (subjectivity) is processed through a set of collectively exhaustive fuzzy linguistic variables. Forth, Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory is eventually applied under the proposed HER framework for the purpose of accumulating supporting pieces of evidence in a comprehensive manner. The suggested model is implemented to arrive at detailed and informative bridge element condition ratings through data acquired from two case study bridges in Canada. As it benefits from a data oriented and structured algorithm, the developed defect-based model is believed to introduce a great deal of objectivity in an otherwise subjective area of infrastructure assessment. This falls within the ultimate goal of enhancing overall public safety and well-being

An approach to the assessment of potentially risky behaviour of ICT systems’ users

Korisnika informacijsko komunikacijskog sustava treba promatrati njegovim sastavnim dijelom, jer korisnik svojim rizičnim ponašanjem može značajno utjecati na ukupnu razinu sigurnosti sustava. Cilj rada je razviti postupak modeliranja sustava za procjenu rizičnog ponašanja korisnika. Ontologija i OWL simbolički jezik su odabrani za izradu strukture semantičkog modela odnosno formalizaciju prikupljenog znanja iz domene "ponašanja korisnika sustava sa stajališta sigurnosti". Za procjenu ponašanja odabran je algoritam za evidencijsko zaključivanje koji se koristi za pocjenu stanja te omogućuje usporedbu zatečenog stanja više sustava. Dobiveni normirani rezultati obrade su dali ocjenu ponašanja korisnika u rasponu od 0,066 za naivno do 1,000 za "paranoidno" ponašanje. U radu je prikazan način upotrebe algoritma za evidencijsko zaključivanje prilikom procjene ljudskog dijela tehničkog sustava, način procjene cijele grupe umjesto pojedinačnog procjenjivanja te su definirani uvjeti mapiranja algoritma i ontološke strukture.Information and Communication Technology system’s user should be considered as system’s component, because user’s behaviour can significantly affect the system’s security level. The aim of this paper is to develop an assessment method for user’s potentially risky behaviour. Ontology and OWL symbolic language have been chosen in order to define the semantic model and to formalize the knowledge of the domain on "user’s potentially risky behaviour". The Evidential Reasoning algorithm has been chosen for assessment of user’s behaviour. The normalized results for assessment on user’s behaviour give an interval ranging from 0,066 for the "naïve" user to 1,000 for the "paranoid" system’s user which can be used for reference in future work. This paper shows how to use the Evidential Reasoning algorithm to evaluate the human part of a technical system, how to evaluate a group of users instead of an individual evaluation. Furthermore, conditions required to map the algorithm to the ontological structure are defined

A novel model for the quantitative evaluation of green port development - A case study of major ports in China

Environmental problems that seriously affect both natural systems and social development of human beings have drawn extensive attention from governing authorities all around the world, and become an urgent issue to be addressed. Ports play a significant role in the international shipping which inevitably influence the global environment. Thus, the concept of green port is developed to mitigate the negative impacts of inappropriate port operations on environment. This paper analyzes the current status of green port development worldwide. An evaluation model for quantitative measurement of green port development is established based on the Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses (DPSIR) framework. The weight of each index composing the evaluation model is calculated through an analytical hierarchy process method, and the evaluation results of the investigated ports with respect to each index are aggregated using an evidential reasoning approach. The evaluation model is further demonstrated through a comparative analysis of five major ports in China. The novel model developed along with the methods applied in this paper can provide significant insights for the comparative evaluation on the development of green ports in other countries and/or regions, as well as a powerful tool to conduct self-assessment of green port development. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

Evidential reasoning-based airline network design for long-haul transportation in express delivery

Kod hitne isporuke, za ekspresni prijevoz robe uvelike se koristi avionska dostava zbog visoke učinkovitosti i sigurnosti, najvažnijih za kupce. Velika količina tereta prisiljava ekspresne kompanije na uspostavu vlastitih avionskih mreža u svrhu poboljšanja efikasnosti isporuke i snižavanja troškova prijevoza. Uobičajena optimalna rješenja imaju vrlo složeno dizajnirane mreže s čvorištima za prijelaz; štoviše, uvjeti, uključujući količinu oborina, volumen željezničkog prijevoza, prosječnu propusnost i infrastrukturu hardwera, ne mogu se u potpunosti uzeti u obzir. U ovom radu formuliramo problem dizajna ekspresne avionske mreže kao proces vrednovanja zasnovan na evidentnom zaključivanju s multidimenzijskim podacima. U svrhu osiguranja fleksibilne scheme za rješavanje zadatka procjenjivanja primijenjena je Dempster-Shafer teorija dokaza, a postupak evidentnog zaključivanja specifičan za dizajniranje ekspresnih mreža predlaže se kako bi se osigurao najbolji izbor čvorišta za prijelaz. Predloženi pristup je primijenjen kod projektiranja avionske mreže za ShunFeng ekspres kompaniju, a analiza tog slučaja pokazuje da se predloženom schemom može osigurati razumna transportna mreža uz više učinkovitosti i niže cijene.In express delivery, air couriers have been used extensively for transporting express freight due to its high efficiency and security, which are the most important considerations of the customers. The large volume of cargo forces the express company to build its own airline networks, aiming at improving the efficiency of delivery and reducing the transport cost. The conventional optimal solutions are very complex for use in designing networks with transferring hubs, and, in addition, the port conditions, including the volume of rainfall, the volume of railway transportation, average throughput, and hardware infrastructure, cannot be considered fully. In this paper, we formulate the express airline network design problem as an evidential reasoning-based evaluation process with multi-dimensional data. We used the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to provide a flexible scheme to solve the evaluation task, and we proposed an evidential reasoning process specific for designing an express network to determine the best choice of the transferring hub. The proposed approach was applied in the design of the airline network for the ShunFeng express company, and the case study demonstrated that the proposed scheme can obtain a reasonable transport network with higher efficiency and lower cost

A novel policy making aid model for the development of LNG fuelled ships

In recent years, increasingly strict restrictions on ship emissions and continuously increasing prices of marine fuel oil have made the liquefied natural gas (LNG) using as a marine fuel more attractive, and LNG fuelled ships have therefore become more popular in many countries. However, there is still not much research on the development level of LNG fuelled ships in different countries, and no unified or corresponding evaluation criteria has been established to support relevant policy making, revealing a significant research gap to be fulfilled. In view of this, taking the advantages of the PEST (Political, Economic, Social and Technological factors) and the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis, this paper proposes a novel SRETI (Strategy, Regulation, Economics, Technology and Infrastructure) model for evaluating the development level of LNG fuelled ships in a particular region or country for self-assessment or comparative studies. The kernel of the model consists of the combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, thus being able to deal with evaluation data of both quantitative and qualitative features. China, Norway and the United States of America (USA) are selected in a real case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the model on the evaluation of the development of their LNG fuelled ships. The findings show that Norway is better than USA and China in terms of the development level of LNG fuelled ships. It is also revealed that the proposed SRETI model is capable of addressing uncertainties in subjective data provided by domain experts. A sensitive analysis is conducted as well to test the robustness of the SRETI model, and the results are in harmony with the axioms and hypotheses. This work provides policymakers with powerful insights into the development of LNG fuelled ships. It can also be tailored to evaluate the development of emerging technologies in other sectors. © 2018 Elsevier Lt

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF MARINE PILOTS USING ADVANCED DECISION MAKING METHODS

Seaports play a significant role in global logistics networks, contributing to the efficiency of both national and international economic growth. Dramatic changes in the supply chain encourage ports to maintain effective integration when delivering services. Ports are thus parts of complex systems operating in uncertain operational environments. Accident investigation shows that there has been a significant increase in marine accidents contributed to by human error during marine pilotage operations. The human element has been identified as a major critical factor for most operational failures. Therefore, an adequate understanding of the key factors influencing pilot reliability plays a vital role in all high-risk industries, among which maritime operations are included. This study aims to develop a new quantitative marine pilot reliability assessment methodology, known as the Marine Pilot’s Reliability Index (MPRI). The MPRI seeks to help decision makers in identifying the effects of certain factors on pilot reliability. Although human reliability has been investigated in different disciplines, there is no consensus on the selected criteria. Therefore, in this study, the researcher employed a hybrid research approach, comprised of qualitative and quantitative approaches in a sequential exploratory approach to elicit the key factors that are considered dominant in maintaining the reliability of a marine port pilot. This was conducted through a series of investigation tools such as field observation, semi-structured focus-group interviews, and port pilotage accident data analysis. This step culminated in a composite of four main criteria with thirteen sub-factors, which pilots considered dominant to their reliability. These factors are arranged in a hierarchal order forming the new developed MPRI. To ensure the applicability of the identified MPRI factors, the researcher applied a Delphi technique in examining the degree of agreement among experts towards the identified MPRIs. Two rounds of questionnaires were conducted. The results obtained show a high degree of agreement among experts towards the identified factors. This is followed by the application of the analytical hierarchal process (AHP) approach to determine the relative weights of all identified criteria. The second approach, a new conceptual MPRI interdependency model is constructed using a hybrid approach of a fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) and an analytical network process (ANP). This hybrid approach helps to deal with inherent uncertainties and highlights the degree of interdependences in the developed MPRIs. To examine the feasibility of the proposed model and determine the outputs from this research, the researcher employed a fuzzy evidential reasoning (FER) for solving multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems in conjunction with the aforementioned approaches to empirically assess the reliability of a marine pilot. The application of FER helps manage uncertainties resulting from the nature of operations. Three senior marine pilots have been assessed using the developed reliability assessment tool. The results reveal the novelty of this assessment tool in offering an effective and flexible reliability assessment and a diagnostic instrument for decision makers to predict a reduction in a pilot’s reliability. The developed model is partially validated using a sensitivity analysis. The novelty of this work offers a foundation towards assessing the reliability of marine pilotage operations using risk-based methodologies with variance techniques to facilitate the acquisition of qualitative and quantitative data and to ensure safe and efficient port operations

Antifragility Analysis and Measurement Framework for Systems of Systems

The twenty-first century is defined by the social and technical hazards we face. A hazardous situation is a condition, or event, that threatens the well-being of people, organizations, societies, environments, and property. The most extreme of the hazards are considered X-Events and are an exogenous source of extreme stress to a system. X-Events can also be the unintended outputs of a system with both positive (serendipitous) and negative (catastrophic) consequences. Systems can vary in their ability to withstand these stress events. This ability exists on a continuum of fragility that ranges from fragile (degrading with stress), to robust (unchanged by stress), to antifragile (improving with stress). The state of the art does not include a method for analyzing or measuring fragility. Given that what we measure we will improve, the absence of a measurement approach limits the effectiveness of governance in making our systems less fragile and more robust if not antifragile. The authors present an antifragile system simulation model, and propose a framework for analyzing and measuring antifragility based on system of systems concepts. The framework reduces a multidimensional concept of fragility into a two-dimensional continuous interval scale

A fuzzy multi-layer assessment method for EFQM.

Although the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) is one of the best-known business excellence frameworks, its inherent self-assessment approaches have several limitations. A critical review of self-assessment models reveals that most models are ambiguous and limited to precise data. In addition, the impact of expert knowledge on scoring is overly subjective, and most methodologies assume the relationships between variables are linear. This paper presents a new fuzzy multi-layer assessment method that relies on fuzzy inference systems (FISs) to accommodate imprecise data and varying assessor experiences to overcome uncertainty and complexity in the EFQM model. The method was implemented, tested, and verified under real conditions in a regional electricity company. The case was assessed by internal company experts and external assessors from an EFQM business excellence organization, and the model was implemented using Matlab software. When comparing the classical model with the new model, assessors and experts favored outputs from the new model.N/