Essays on risk aversion

This dissertation contains three essays on risk aversion. In the first essay, we an- alyze comparative risk aversion in a new way, through a comparative statics problem in which, for a cost, agents can shift from an initial probability distribution toward a preferred distribution. The Ross characterization arises when the original distribution is riskier than the preferred distribution and the cost is monetary, and the Arrow-Pratt characterization arises when the original distribution differs from the preferred distribution by a simple mean-preserving spread and the cost is a utility cost. Higher-order increases in risk lead to higher-order generalizations, and the com- parative statics method yields a unified approach to the problem of comparative risk attitudes. In the second essay, we analyze decisions made by a group of terrorists and a government in a zero-sum game in which the terrorists minimize a representative citizen's expected utility and the government maximizes it. The terrorists' strategy balances the probability and the severity of the attack while the government chooses the level of investment reducing the probability and/or mitigating the severity. We find that if the representative citizen is risk neutral, the terrorists' response is not associated with the government's action and the representative citizen's risk attitudes affect the strategies of the government and the terrorists. Risk aversion always in- creases equilibrium severity but does not always increase equilibrium expenditure of the government. In the last essay, we consider a situation in which an individual has to pay for a good before he realizes the state-dependent surplus of the good. This ex-ante willingness to pay is called the option price and the difference between the option price and the expected surplus is the option value. We find that the option value actually is the buying price for a fixed payment of the expected surplus, and there is a special case in which the option value equals the negative of the compensating risk premium. We also find the effects on the option price and the option value when the expected utility assumption is replaced by a rank-dependent expected utility

Behavioral Biases in Interpersonal Contexts

This thesis presents evidence suggesting that the same types of biases in individual decision making under uncertainty pertain in interpersonal contexts. The chapters above demonstrate in specific contexts how specific interpersonal factors attenuate, amplify, or replicate these biases. One of the most natural interpersonal contexts is group decision making. The group effects on decisions consist of aggregation and communication, and disentangling these could help us improve our understanding of the group decision making process and make better predictions. Because the two measures of rationality applied in Chapter 2, namely stochastic dominance and EU-compliance, are both dichotomous, we use the simulated decisions from pure voting as benchmarks to isolate the communication effects. Chapter 3 describes how simple pieces of information were provided to individuals, with the aim of helping them evaluate the quality of the estimates they received in interpersonal communication. Chapter 4 extends Yaari's definition of comparative risk aversion to enable comparisons between people holding different beliefs. The last chapter presents evidence that the mere presentation with cash could make a substantial psychological impact on people's risk attitudes by changing their likelihood insensitivity in probability weighting. The cash effects that lower valuations could potentially come from a buyer's evolutionary instinct in bargaining triggered by cash. Testing the existence of such instincts and, if they exist, finding what triggers them could be complementary to the current study

Business Risk in Changing Dynamics of Global Village 2

The monograph is prepared based on the presentations and discussions made at the II International Conference “BUSINESS RISK IN CHANGING DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL VILLAGE (BRCDGV 2019)”, November, 7th-08th, 2019, in Ternopil, Ukraine. The aim of this scientific international conference is to provide a platform for professional debate with the participation of experts from around the globe in order to identify & analyze risks and opportunities in today’s global business, and specifically in Ukraine. The conference will provide a framework for researchers, business elites and decision makers to uplift the business ties and minimise the risk for creating a better world and better Ukraine.The Conference is designed to call experts around the globe from different sectors of practices which are effected by globalization and watching changes in Europe as well as in Ukraine. It is an excellent platform for interactions and communication between academicians, corporate representatives, policy makers, representatives of organizations and community, as well as individuals being the part of this globalized world. The 1st edition of this conference was held at the University of Applied Sciences in Nysa, Poland (2017); the 2nd edition took place at Ternopil Ivan Puluj National Technical University, Ukraine (2019); the 3rd edition will be organized at Patna University, India (2020) in cooperation with Indo-European Education Foundation (IEEF, Poland) and its partner universities from Poland, India, Europe and other part of the world.Under modern conditions of globalization nowadays, economic activity is undergoing changes. Innovative technologies, new forms of business, dynamic changes taking place in the world today result in the emergence of the necessity to minimize risks in order to maximize benefits. The cooperation between experts from different fields with the aim to ensure sustainable growth – policymakers, scientists, universities representatives and business elites is essential nowadays. With the purpose to bring them together and discuss the main issues of todays’ global world this conference took place in Ternopil, Ukraine. As Ukraine is now passing through a dynamic period of changes, recommendations coming up from such discussions can be very beneficial for building stronger society and meet the risks globalization brings up. This monograph provides a useful review of economic, financial and policy issues in the context of globalization processes and has proven extremely popular with practitioners and industry advisors. This edition is given the continued high demand and interest for experts form different areas working on diminishing of business risks wishing to keep abreast of current thinking on this subject. According to many experts process of managing risks is currently one of the most relevant business technologies and at the same time it is a complex process which requires ground knowledge in the research field and practical experience. The popularity of business risks management is due to objective reasons such as dynamics of society, interconnections and interdependence between different players in the society, increasing role of human capital in the country’s sustainable developmen

Market beta and factor risk premia in financial markets

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