Traffic Time Headway Prediction and Analysis: A Deep Learning Approach

In the modern world of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), time headway is a key traffic flow parameter affecting ITS operations and planning. Defined as “the time difference between any two successive vehicles when they cross a given point”, time headway is used in various traffic and transportation engineering research domains, such as capacity analysis, safety studies, car-following, and lane-changing behavior modeling, and level of service evaluation describing stochastic features of traffic flow. Advanced travel and headway information can also help road users avoid traffic congestion through dynamic route planning, for instance. Hence, it is crucial to accurately model headway distribution patterns for the purpose of analyzing traffic operations and making subsequent infrastructure-related decisions. Previous studies have applied a variety of probabilistic models, machine learning algorithms (for example, support vector machine, relevance vector machine, etc.), and neural networks for short-term headway prediction. Recently, deep learning has become increasingly popular following a surge of traffic big data with high resolution, thriving algorithms, and evolved computational capacity. However, only a few studies have exploited this emerging technology for headway prediction applications. This is largely due to the difficulty in capturing the random, seasonal, nonlinear, and spatiotemporal correlated nature of traffic data and asymmetric human driving behavior which has a significant impact on headway. This study employs a novel architecture of deep neural networks, Long Short-Term Neural Network (LSTM NN), to capture nonlinear traffic dynamics effectively to predict vehicle headway. LSTM NN can overcome the issue of back-propagated error decay (that is, vanishing gradient problem) existing in regular Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) through memory blocks which is its special feature, and thus exhibits superior capability for time series prediction with long temporal dependency. There is no existing appropriate model for long term prediction of traffic headway, as existing models lack using big dataset and solving the vanishing gradient problem because of not having a memory block. To overcome these critics and fill the gaps in previous works, multiple LSTM layers are stacked to incorporate temporal information. For model training and validation, this study used the USDOT’s Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset, which contains historical data of some important features to describe the headway distribution such as lane numbers, microscopic traffic flow parameters, vehicle and road shape, vehicle type, and velocity. LSTM NN can capture the historical relationships between these variables and save them using its unique memory block. At the headway prediction stage, the related spatiotemporal features from the dataset (HighwayI-80) were fed into a fully connected layer and again tested with testing data for validation (both highway I-80 & US 101). The predicted accuracy outperforms previous time headway predictions

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Applications Development and Evaluation for Transportation Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) seamlessly integrate computation, networking and physical devices. A Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) system in which each vehicle can wirelessly communicate and share data with other vehicles or infrastructures (e.g., traffic signal, roadside unit), requires a Transportation Cyber-Physical System (TCPS) for improving safety and mobility, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, a typical TCPS with a centralized computing service cannot support real-time CAV applications due to the often unpredictable network latency, high data loss rate and expensive communication bandwidth, especially in a mobile network, such as a CAV environment. Edge computing, a new concept for the CPS, distributes the resources for communication, computation, control, and storage at different edges of the systems. TCPS with edge computing strategy forms an edge-centric TCPS. This edge-centric TCPS system can reduce data loss and data delivery delay, and fulfill the high bandwidth requirements. Within the edge-centric TCPS, Vehicle-to-X (V2X) communication, along with the in-vehicle sensors, provides a 360-degree view for CAVs that enables autonomous vehicles’ operation beyond the sensor range. The addition of wireless connectivity would improve the operational efficiency of CAVs by providing real-time roadway information, such as traffic signal phasing and timing information, downstream traffic incident alerts, and predicting future traffic queue information. In addition, temporal variation of roadway traffic can be captured by sharing Basic Safety Messages (BSMs) from each vehicle through the communication between vehicles as well as with roadside infrastructures (e.g., traffic signal, roadside unit) and traffic management centers. In the early days of CAVs, data will be collected only from a limited number of CAVs due to a low CAV penetration rate and not from other non-connected vehicles. This will result in noise in the traffic data because of low penetration rate of CAVs. This lack of data combined with the data loss rate in the wireless CAV environment makes it challenging to predict traffic behavior, which is dynamic over time. To address this challenge, it is important to develop and evaluate a machine learning technique to capture stochastic variation in traffic patterns over time. This dissertation focuses on the development and evaluation of various connected and autonomous vehicles applications in an edge-centric TCPS. It includes adaptive queue prediction, traffic data prediction, dynamic routing and Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) applications. An adaptive queue prediction algorithm is described in Chapter 2 for predicting real-time traffic queue status in an edge-centric TCPS. Chapter 3 presents noise reduction models to reduce the noise from the traffic data generated from the BSMs at different penetration of CAVs and evaluate the performance of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) prediction model for predicting traffic data using the resulting filtered data set. The development and evaluation of a dynamic routing application in a CV environment is detailed in Chapter 4 to reduce incident recovery time and increase safety on a freeway. The development of an evaluation framework is detailed in Chapter 5 to evaluate car-following models for CACC controller design in terms of vehicle dynamics and string stability to ensure user acceptance is detailed in Chapter 5. Innovative methods presented in this dissertation were proven to be providing positive improvements in transportation mobility. These research will lead to the real-world deployment of these applications in an edge-centric TCPS as the dissertation focuses on the edge-centric TCPS deployment strategy. In addition, as multiple CAV applications as presented in this dissertation can be supported simultaneously by the same TCPS, public investments will only include infrastructure investments, such as investments in roadside infrastructure and back-end computing infrastructure. These connected and autonomous vehicle applications can potentially provide significant economic benefits compared to its cost

Microscopic traffic models, accidents, and insurance losses

The paper develops a methodology to enable microscopic models of transportation systems to be accessible for a statistical study of traffic accidents. Our approach is intended to permit an understanding not only of historical losses but also of incidents that may occur in altered, potential future systems. Through such a counterfactual analysis, it is possible, from an insurance, but also from an engineering perspective, to assess the impact of changes in the design of vehicles and transport systems in terms of their impact on road safety and functionality. Structurally, we characterize the total loss distribution approximatively as a mean-variance mixture. This also yields valuation procedures that can be used instead of Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, we construct an implementation based on the open-source traffic simulator SUMO and illustrate the potential of the approach in counterfactual case studies

Estimating Acceleration and Lane-Changing Dynamics Based on NGSIM Trajectory Data

The NGSIM trajectory data sets provide longitudinal and lateral positional information for all vehicles in certain spatiotemporal regions. Velocity and acceleration information cannot be extracted directly since the noise in the NGSIM positional information is greatly increased by the necessary numerical differentiations. We propose a smoothing algorithm for positions, velocities and accelerations that can also be applied near the boundaries. The smoothing time interval is estimated based on velocity time series and the variance of the processed acceleration time series. The velocity information obtained in this way is then applied to calculate the density function of the two-dimensional distribution of velocity and inverse distance, and the density of the distribution corresponding to the ``microscopic'' fundamental diagram. Furthermore, it is used to calculate the distributions of time gaps and times-to-collision, conditioned to several ranges of velocities and velocity differences. By simulating virtual stationary detectors we show that the probability for critical values of the times-to-collision is greatly underestimated when estimated from single-vehicle data of stationary detectors. Finally, we investigate the lane-changing process and formulate a quantitative criterion for the duration of lane changes that is based on the trajectory density in normalized coordinates. Remarkably, there is a very noisy but significant velocity advantage in favor of the targeted lane that decreases immediately before the change due to anticipatory accelerations

Machine Learning Approaches for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) as a field has emerged quite rapidly in the recent years. A competitive solution coupled with big data gathered for ITS applications needs the latest AI to drive the ITS for the smart and effective public transport planning and management. Although there is a strong need for ITS applications like Advanced Route Planning (ARP) and Traffic Control Systems (TCS) to take the charge and require the minimum of possible human interventions. This thesis develops the models that can predict the traffic link flows on a junction level such as road traffic flows for a freeway or highway road for all traffic conditions. The research first reviews the state-of-the-art time series data prediction techniques with a deep focus in the field of transport Engineering along with the existing statistical and machine leaning methods and their applications for the freeway traffic flow prediction. This review setup a firm work focussed on the view point to look for the superiority in term of prediction performance of individual statistical or machine learning models over another. A detailed theoretical attention has been given, to learn the structure and working of individual chosen prediction models, in relation to the traffic flow data. In modelling the traffic flows from the real-world Highway England (HE) gathered dataset, a traffic flow objective function for highway road prediction models is proposed in a 3-stage framework including the topological breakdown of traffic network into virtual patches, further into nodes and to the basic links flow profiles behaviour estimations. The proposed objective function is tested with ten different prediction models including the statistical, shallow and deep learning constructed hybrid models for bi-directional links flow prediction methods. The effectiveness of the proposed objective function greatly enhances the accuracy of traffic flow prediction, regardless of the machine learning model used. The proposed prediction objective function base framework gives a new approach to model the traffic network to better understand the unknown traffic flow waves and the resulting congestions caused on a junction level. In addition, the results of applied Machine Learning models indicate that RNN variant LSTMs based models in conjunction with neural networks and Deep CNNs, when applied through the proposed objective function, outperforms other chosen machine learning methods for link flow predictions. The experimentation based practical findings reveal that to arrive at an efficient, robust, offline and accurate prediction model apart from feeding the ML mode with the correct representation of the network data, attention should be paid to the deep learning model structure, data pre-processing (i.e. normalisation) and the error matrices used for data behavioural learning. The proposed framework, in future can be utilised to address one of the main aims of the smart transport systems i.e. to reduce the error rates in network wide congestion predictions and the inflicted general traffic travel time delays in real-time

Conditional forecasting of bus travel time and passenger occupancy with Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregression

Accurately forecasting bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty is essential for both travelers and transit agencies/operators. However, existing approaches to forecasting bus travel time and passenger occupancy mainly rely on deterministic models, providing only point estimates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive model to jointly forecast both bus travel time and passenger occupancy with uncertainty. The proposed approach naturally captures the intricate interactions among adjacent buses and adapts to the multimodality and skewness of real-world bus travel time and passenger occupancy observations. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm to approximate the resultant joint posterior distribution of the parameter vector. With this framework, the estimation of downstream bus travel time and passenger occupancy is transformed into a multivariate time series forecasting problem conditional on partially observed outcomes. Experimental validation using real-world data demonstrates the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both predictive means and uncertainty quantification compared to the Bayesian Gaussian mixture model