Behavioral Implications of Demand Perception in Inventory Management

The newsvendor problem is one of the rudimentary problems of inventory management with significant practical consequences, thus receiving considerable attention in the behavioral operational research literature. In this chapter, we focus on how decision makers perceive demand uncertainty in the newsvendor setting and discuss how such perception patterns influence commonly observed phenomena in order decisions, such as the pull-to-center effect. Drawing from behavioral biases such as over precision, we propose that decision makers tend to perceive demand to be smaller than it actually is in high margin contexts, and this effect becomes more pronounced with increases in demand size. The opposite pattern is observed in low margin settings; decision makers perceive demand to be larger than the true demand, and this tendency is stronger at lower mean demand levels. Concurrently, decision makers tend to perceive demand to be less variable than it actually is, and this tendency propagates as the variability of demand increases in low margin contexts and decreases in high margin contexts. These perceptions, in turn, lead to more skewed decisions at both ends of the demand spectrum. We discuss how decision makers can be made aware of these biases and how decision processes can be re-designed to convert these unconscious competencies into capabilities to improve decision making

Les frontières de la recherche en contrôle de gestion : une analyse des cadres théoriques mobilisés

De nombreux auteurs mettent l'accent sur la nécessité d'une ouverture disciplinaire dans les travaux de recherche. Notre article vise à analyser l'importance d'une telle démarche au travers de l'étude de ses enjeux et des pratiques des chercheurs en contrôle de gestion. Plus précisément, nous avons tenté de cerner le degré de perméabilité des travaux en contrôle à des cadres conceptuels externes. Pour ce faire, les numéros de revues françaises – Comptabilité, Contrôle, Audit et Finance, Contrôle, Stratégie – et d'une revue américaine – Management science – ont été analysés pour la période 2000 – 2007.épistémologie; contrôle de gestion; cadres théoriques

The data-driven newsvendor problem:Achieving on-target service-levels using distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization

The classical approach to the newsvendor problem is to first estimate the demand distribution (or assume it to be given) and then determine the optimal inventory level. Data-driven optimization offers an alternative, where the inventory level is determined directly from the data. In this paper, we consider the data-driven newsvendor problem under a service-level constraint. We show that existing approaches to this problem suffer from overfitting, resulting in service-levels that are below the target service-level. We propose new data-driven approaches and corresponding mathematical optimization models based on methods of distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization—which have not yet been applied and empirically tested in the context of the data-driven newsvendor problem. We assess the effectiveness of our approaches by means of an extensive numerical study. To that end, we conduct structured experiments based on simulation as well as experiments based on a real-life bikesharing system where we consider the daily usage data along with information on weather and seasonal factors. The results demonstrate that our methods achieve on-target service-levels even in absence of large amounts of data. All in all, our study provides ample empirical evidence that distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization is a viable approach for addressing the data-driven newsvendor problem

Managing Inventory and Financing Decisions Under Ambiguity

Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face persistent challenges in raising capitals, and one of the practical reasons could be the high level of ambiguity in this sector. As many not-for-profit organizations or governmental agencies strengthen financial supports to MSMEs, the important issue of stimulating growth while protecting fund providers under ambiguity arises. We propose a robust optimization framework to jointly determine the firm's production planning and financing decisions in a principal-agent model with the presence of distributional ambiguity. We apply the notion of absolute robustness to derive a financing agreement that is both feasibility-robust and performance-robust. We assume that both the firm and the investor base their decisions on two fundamental descriptive statistics: the mean and the variance of the demand. The firm jointly determines the production quantity and financial agreement to maximize the worst-case expected profit, while the investor approves the financial agreement if the worst case expected return can cover the cost of capital. We show that equity financing is one of the robust optimal financing agreements. We also consider loan financing as an alternative. We derive the firm's robust optimal interest rate and production quantity in closed forms. Notably, the robust optimal interest rate depends on the demand variability and the asset recovery ratio, which comprehensively considers the value of collateral, initial capital, and production quantity

Data-driven revenue management

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Computation for Design and Optimization Program, 2007.Includes bibliographical references (p. 125-127).In this thesis, we consider the classical newsvendor model and various important extensions. We do not assume that the demand distribution is known, rather the only information available is a set of independent samples drawn from the demand distribution. In particular, the variants of the model we consider are: the classical profit-maximization newsvendor model, the risk-averse newsvendor model and the price-setting newsvendor model. If the explicit demand distribution is known, then the exact solutions to these models can be found either analytically or numerically via simulation methods. However, in most real-life settings, the demand distribution is not available, and usually there is only historical demand data from past periods. Thus, data-driven approaches are appealing in solving these problems. In this thesis, we evaluate the theoretical and empirical performance of nonparametric and parametric approaches for solving the variants of the newsvendor model assuming partial information on the distribution. For the classical profit-maximization newsvendor model and the risk-averse newsvendor model we describe general non-parametric approaches that do not make any prior assumption on the true demand distribution. We extend and significantly improve previous theoretical bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee with high probability that the data-driven approach provides a near-optimal solution. By near-optimal we mean that the approximate solution performs arbitrarily close to the optimal solution that is computed with respect to the true demand distributions.(cont.) For the price-setting newsvendor problem, we analyze a previously proposed simulation-based approach for a linear-additive demand model, and again derive bounds on the number of samples required to ensure that the simulation-based approach provides a near-optimal solution. We also perform computational experiments to analyze the empirical performance of these data-driven approaches.by Joline Ann Villaranda Uichanco.S.M

Revenue Maximization Using Product Bundling

Product bundling is a business strategy that packages (either physically or logically), prices and sells groups of two or more distinct products or services as a single economic entity. This practice exploits variations in the reservation prices and the valuations of a bundle vis-à-vis its constituents. Bundling is an effective instrument for price discrimination, and presents opportunities for enhancing revenue without increasing resource availability. However, optimal bundling strategies are generally difficult to derive due to constraints on resource availability, product valuation and pricing relationships, the consumer purchase process, and the rapid growth of the number of possible alternatives.This dissertation investigates two different situations—vertically differentiated versus independently valued products—and develops two different approaches for revenue maximization opportunities using product bundling, when resource availability is limited. For the vertically differentiated market with two products, such as the TV market with prime time and non-prime time advertising, we derive optimal policies that dictate how the seller (that is, the broadcaster) can manage their limited advertising time inventories. We find that, unlike other markets, the revenue maximizing strategy may be to offer only the bundle, only the components, or various combinations of the bundle and the components. The optimality of these strategies critically depends on the availability of the two advertising time resources. We also show how the network should focus its programming quality improvement efforts, and investigate how the "value of bundling," defined as the network's and the advertisers' benefit from bundling, changes as the resource availabilities change. We then propose and study a bundling model for the duopolistic situation, and extend the results from the monopolistic to the duopolistic case.For the independently valued products, we develop stochastic mathematical programming models for pricing bundles of n components. Specializing this model for two components in a deterministic setting, we derive closed-form optimal product pricing policies when the demand functions are linear. Using the intuition garnered from these analytical results, we then investigate two procedures for solving large-scale problems: a greedy heuristic, and a decomposition method. We show the effectiveness of both methods through computational experiments