Decision Support System for Container Port Selection using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis

Ports are essential for maritime transportation and global supply chains since they are nodes that connect the sea- and land-based modes of transportation. With containerization and supply chains stimulating global trade, ports are challenged to adjust to changes in the market to create value to their customers. Therefore, this dissertation research focuses on the container port selection decision analysis to provide information to help shipping lines select the best port for their shipping networks. Since the problem is complex, dynamic, and involves multiple and conflicting criteria, the research proposes to use the multi-objective decision analysis with Value-Focused Thinking approach. The first chapter analyzes the port selection literature by timeline, journals, geographical location, and focus of the studies. Also, the research identifies the multiple criteria used in the port selection literature, as well as the models and approaches used for the analysis of the port selection decision problem. The second chapter develops a container port selection decision model for shipping lines using ports in West Africa. This model uses a multi-attribute value theory with valued-focused thinking and Alternative-Focused Thinking methodologies. The third chapter develops a port selection decision support system for shipping lines to select the best port in the U.S. Gulf Coast considering the impact of the Panama Canal’s expansion. The decision support system uses the multi-objective decision analysis with Value-Focused Thinking approach, incorporating the opinion of an industry expert for the development of the value model. It also includes a cost model to quantify the cost of the alternatives. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to help decision makers understand the value and cost risks of the decision. The contribution of this research is that it provides a tool to decision makers of the shipping lines industry to improve the decision making process to select the port that will add the most affordable value to the global supply chains of their customers. In addition, researchers can use the proposed methodology for future port selection studies in other regions and from the perspectives of other stakeholders

Port competitiveness in North East Asia : an integrated fuzzy approach to expert evaluations

Despite the fact that the Northeast Asia (NEA) region, which had four of the top five and 20 of the top 30 container ports in the world in 2003, can be regarded as holding a central position in liner shipping and the handling of container cargo volumes, very little research has been done into the evaluation of its port competitiveness (EPC). For this reason, the EPC in NEA can be regarded as a problematic and urgent issue to be solved, and worthy of academic attention. From this aspect, this research set out to attempt to address the above issue by means of utilizing expert knowledge. However, the EPC contains problems of complex multipleattributes and multiple-hierarchies (CMAMH). In addition, difficulties concerning certain characteristics of evaluation such as complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity are also involved. To deal with such problems, in this research, the employment of integrated fuzzy evaluation (IFE) as a methodology was decided upon. As a result of the adaptation of the methodology, certain indications from this research to the theory and practice for container ports have emerged and are clearly identifiable. With regard to theory, this study has contributed to theoretical development significantly in four ways. First, the factors and taxonomy of port competitiveness for the container ports in NEA have been provided for the first time. Second, this is the first integrated approach for the EPC in NEA, the most competitive area in the world. Third, this research was also the first to attempt extracting critical weak points and/or influential factors affecting current port competitiveness. Finally, the adoption of IFE made it possible for the first time to uncover the interactive relationships between the competing container ports. In terms of practice, this research has also provided certain contributions of utmost importance. First of all, the study has provided a suggestion for the most recent port ranking in respect of port competitiveness. Moreover, changes in competitiveness power, which are dynamically and interactively affected by the relationship between the ports, have been successfully estimated and suggested. Thus, such changes in the competitiveness in NEA can now be easily forecasted by port actors

Development of an Efficient Planned Maintenance Framework for Marine and Offshore Machinery Operating under Highly Uncertain Environment

The constantly increasing complexity of marine and offshore machinery is a consequence of a constant improvement in ship powering, automation, specialisation in cargo transport, new ship types, as well as an effort to make the sea transport more economic. Therefore, the criteria of reliability, availability and maintainability have become very important factors in the process of marine machinery design, operation and maintenance. An important finding from the literature exposed that failure to marine machinery can cause both direct and indirect economic damage with a long-term financial consequence. Notably, many cases of machinery failures reported in databases were as a result of near misses and incidents which are potential accident indicators. Moreover, experience has shown that modelling of past accident events and scenarios can provide insights into how a machinery failure can be subsisted even if it is not avoidable, also a basis for risk analysis of the machinery in order to reveal its vulnerabilities. This research investigates the following modelling approach in order to improve the efficiency of marine and offshore machinery operating under highly uncertain environment. Firstly, this study makes full use of evidential reasoning’s advantage to propose a novel fuzzy evidential reasoning sensitivity analysis method (FER-SAM) to facilitate the assessment of operational uncertainties (trend analysis, family analysis, environmental analysis, design analysis, and human reliability analysis) in ship cranes. Secondly, a fuzzy rule based sensitivity analysis methodology is proposed as a maintenance prediction model for oil-wetted gearbox and bearing with emphasis on ship cranes by formulating a fuzzy logic box (diagnostic table), which provides the ship crane operators with a means to predict possible impending failure without having to dismantle the crane. Thirdly, experience has shown that it is not financially possible to employ all the suggested maintenance strategies in the literature. Thus, this study proposed a fuzzy TOPSIS approach that can help the maintenance engineers to select appropriate strategies aimed at enhancing the performance of the marine and offshore machinery. Finally, the developed models are integrated in order to facilitate a generic planned maintenance framework for robust improvement and management, especially in situations where conventional planned maintenance techniques cannot be implemented with confidence due to data deficiency

Proceedings of the inaugural construction management and economics ‘Past, Present and Future’ conference CME25, 16-18 July 2007, University of Reading, UK

This conference was an unusual and interesting event. Celebrating 25 years of Construction Management and Economics provides us with an opportunity to reflect on the research that has been reported over the years, to consider where we are now, and to think about the future of academic research in this area. Hence the sub-title of this conference: “past, present and future”. Looking through these papers, some things are clear. First, the range of topics considered interesting has expanded hugely since the journal was first published. Second, the research methods are also more diverse. Third, the involvement of wider groups of stakeholder is evident. There is a danger that this might lead to dilution of the field. But my instinct has always been to argue against the notion that Construction Management and Economics represents a discipline, as such. Granted, there are plenty of university departments around the world that would justify the idea of a discipline. But the vast majority of academic departments who contribute to the life of this journal carry different names to this. Indeed, the range and breadth of methodological approaches to the research reported in Construction Management and Economics indicates that there are several different academic disciplines being brought to bear on the construction sector. Some papers are based on economics, some on psychology and others on operational research, sociology, law, statistics, information technology, and so on. This is why I maintain that construction management is not an academic discipline, but a field of study to which a range of academic disciplines are applied. This may be why it is so interesting to be involved in this journal. The problems to which the papers are applied develop and grow. But the broad topics of the earliest papers in the journal are still relevant today. What has changed a lot is our interpretation of the problems that confront the construction sector all over the world, and the methodological approaches to resolving them. There is a constant difficulty in dealing with topics as inherently practical as these. While the demands of the academic world are driven by the need for the rigorous application of sound methods, the demands of the practical world are quite different. It can be difficult to meet the needs of both sets of stakeholders at the same time. However, increasing numbers of postgraduate courses in our area result in larger numbers of practitioners with a deeper appreciation of what research is all about, and how to interpret and apply the lessons from research. It also seems that there are contributions coming not just from construction-related university departments, but also from departments with identifiable methodological traditions of their own. I like to think that our authors can publish in journals beyond the construction-related areas, to disseminate their theoretical insights into other disciplines, and to contribute to the strength of this journal by citing our articles in more mono-disciplinary journals. This would contribute to the future of the journal in a very strong and developmental way. The greatest danger we face is in excessive self-citation, i.e. referring only to sources within the CM&E literature or, worse, referring only to other articles in the same journal. The only way to ensure a strong and influential position for journals and university departments like ours is to be sure that our work is informing other academic disciplines. This is what I would see as the future, our logical next step. If, as a community of researchers, we are not producing papers that challenge and inform the fundamentals of research methods and analytical processes, then no matter how practically relevant our output is to the industry, it will remain derivative and secondary, based on the methodological insights of others. The balancing act between methodological rigour and practical relevance is a difficult one, but not, of course, a balance that has to be struck in every single paper