1,221 research outputs found
Understanding and Modeling Risk and Resilience in Complex Coastal Systems (final workshop report)
On October 29 & 30, 2014 SURA hosted an interdisciplinary workshop on the subject, Understanding and Modeling Risk and Resilience in Complex Coastal Systems, as a prelude to a new SURA-led community science initiative integrating social and natural science. The goals were to identify the most critical issues in assessing future risks, vulnerabilities and resilience of complex coastal systems
Grounding Social Foundations for Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used by decision makers in order to deriveclimate policies. IAMs are currently based on climate-economics interactions, whereas the role of socialsystem has been highlighted to be of prime importance on the implementation of climate policies. Beyondexisting IAMs, we argue that it is therefore urgent to increase efforts in the integration of social processeswithin IAMs. For achieving such a challenge, we present some promising avenues of research based on thesocial branches of economics. We finally present the potential implications yielded by such social IAMs.This work was supported by a grant from the French National Research Agency (project VIRGO, ANR-16-CE03-0003-01 Grant) and the anonymous reviewer for the constructive comments and suggestions
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework
Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires to explicitly
take into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human
societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing
feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological
systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth System Models do
not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the
biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Models
typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design
principles for constructing World-Earth Models (WEM) for Earth system analysis
of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (World) - ecological (Earth)
co-evolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open
simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs
based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to
flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g. carbon
cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic/economic (e.g. economic growth) and
socio-cultural processes (e.g. voting on climate policies or changing social
norms) and their feedback interactions, and are based on elementary entity
types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the
epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of
the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and
methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic/economic and socio-cultural
processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To
illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and
highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing
socio-cultural processes and feedbacks could fundamentally change macroscopic
model outcomes
One model to fit all? The pursuit of integrated earth system models in GAIM and AIMES
Images of Earth from space popularized the view of our planet as a single, fragile entity against the vastness and darkness of space. In the 1980s, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) was set up to produce a predictive understanding of this fragile entity as the ‘Earth System.’ In order to do so, the program sought to create a common research framework for the different disciplines involved. It suggested that integrated numerical models could provide such a framework. The paper historicizes the formation of the present ways of thinking about how the components are combined to produce policy-relevant knowledge about the ‘Earth System.’ The empirical basis consists of project documentation, publications and interviews from the Task Force on Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling (GAIM) and the project Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES). Within the IGBP GAIM and AIMES fostered the advancement of ‘Earth System’ modeling. The paper divides the development of ‘Earth System’ modeling up into three phases. Research of the first phase mainly concerned the interpretation of model behavior (1984-1997), in the second phase integration and ‘Earth System’ analysis was placed at the center of research efforts (1998-2003). In the third phase AIMES scientists explored the consequences of incorporating humans as a dynamic component in the ‘Earth System’ (2004-). This transition shows that redefining the global environment in increasingly complex terms altered the role of modelers and predictability of the ‘Earth System.
Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure
Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual
behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors
have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network
research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal
marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a
co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly
considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network
structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating
how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing
social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The
prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially
connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We
propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic
restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This
generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social
network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure
Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science: The pyunicorn package
We introduce the \texttt{pyunicorn} (Pythonic unified complex network and
recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and
combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network
theory and nonlinear time series analysis. \texttt{pyunicorn} is a fully
object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language
Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate
networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience
representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets
of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced
methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial
networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics or network
surrogates. Additionally, \texttt{pyunicorn} provides insights into the
nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni- and multivariate time
series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification
analysis (RQA), recurrence networks, visibility graphs and construction of
surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is
outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology.Comment: 28 pages, 17 figure
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World-Earth modeling framework
Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world-Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)-ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes
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