Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Proceedings of the International Workshop on Reactive Concepts in Knowledge Representation 2014

These are the proceedings of the International Workshop on Reactive Concepts in Knowledge Representation (ReactKnow 2014), which took place on August 19th, 2014 in Prague, co-located with the 21st European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI 2014)

Learning Internal State Memory Representations from Observation

Learning from Observation (LfO) is a machine learning paradigm that mimics how people learn in daily life: learning how to do something simply by watching someone else do it. LfO has been used in various applications, from video game agent creation to driving a car, but it has always been limited by the inability of an observer to know what a performing entity chooses to remember as they act in an environment. Various methods have either ignored the effects of memory or otherwise made simplistic assumptions about its structure. In this dissertation, we propose a new method, Memory Composition Learning, that captures the influence of a performer\u27s memory in an observed behavior through the creation of an auxiliary memory feature set that explicitly models the aspects of the environment with significance for future decisions, and which can be used with a machine learning technique to provide salient information from memory. It advances the state of the art by automatically learning the internal structure of memory instead of ignoring or predefining it. This research is difficult in that memory modeling is an unsupervised learning problem that we elect to solve solely from unobtrusive observation. This research is significant for LfO in that it will allow learning techniques that otherwise could not use information from memory to use a tailored set of learned memory features that capture salient influences from memory and enable decision-making based on these influences for more effective learning performance. To validate our hypothesis, we implemented a prototype for modeling observed memory influences with our approach and applied it to simulated vacuum cleaner and lawn mower domains. Our investigation revealed that MCL was able to automatically learn memory features that describe the influences on an observed actor\u27s internal state, and which improved learning performance of observed behaviors

A Dynamic-Bayesian Network framework for modeling and evaluating learning from observation

Learning from observation (LfO), also known as learning from demonstration, studies how computers can learn to perform complex tasks by observing and thereafter imitating the performance of a human actor. Although there has been a significant amount of research in this area, there is no agreement on a unified terminology or evaluation procedure. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework based on Dynamic-Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for the quantitative modeling and evaluation of LfO tasks. Additionally, we provide evidence showing that: (1) the information captured through the observation of agent behaviors occurs as the realization of a stochastic process (and often not just as a sample of a state-to-action map); (2) learning can be simplified by introducing dynamic Bayesian models with hidden states for which the learning and model evaluation tasks can be reduced to minimization and estimation of some stochastic similarity measures such as crossed entropy. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A Dynamic-Bayesian Network Framework For Modeling And Evaluating Learning From Observation

Learning from observation (LfO), also known as learning from demonstration, studies how computers can learn to perform complex tasks by observing and thereafter imitating the performance of a human actor. Although there has been a significant amount of research in this area, there is no agreement on a unified terminology or evaluation procedure. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework based on Dynamic-Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for the quantitative modeling and evaluation of LfO tasks. Additionally, we provide evidence showing that: (1) the information captured through the observation of agent behaviors occurs as the realization of a stochastic process (and often not just as a sample of a state-to-action map); (2) learning can be simplified by introducing dynamic Bayesian models with hidden states for which the learning and model evaluation tasks can be reduced to minimization and estimation of some stochastic similarity measures such as crossed entropy. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Machine Learning from Casual Conversation

Human social learning is an effective process that has inspired many existing machine learning techniques, such as learning from observation and learning by demonstration. In this dissertation, we introduce another form of social learning, Learning from a Casual Conversation (LCC). LCC is an open-ended machine learning system in which an artificially intelligent agent learns from an extended dialog with a human. Our system enables the agent to incorporate changes into its knowledge base, based on the human\u27s conversational text input. This system emulates how humans learn from each other through a dialog. LCC closes the gap in the current research that is focused on teaching specific tasks to computer agents. Furthermore, LCC aims to provide an easy way to enhance the knowledge of the system without requiring the involvement of a programmer. This system does not require the user to enter specific information; instead, the user can chat naturally with the agent. LCC identifies the inputs that contain information relevant to its knowledge base in the learning process. LCC\u27s architecture consists of multiple sub-systems combined to perform the task. Its learning component can add new knowledge to existing information in the knowledge base, confirm existing information, and/or update existing information found to be related to the user input. %The test results indicate that the prototype was successful in learning from a conversation. The LCC system functionality was assessed using different evaluation methods. This includes tests performed by the developer, as well as by 130 human test subjects. Thirty of those test subjects interacted directly with the system and completed a survey of 13 questions/statements that asked the user about his/her experience using LCC. A second group of 100 human test subjects evaluated the dialogue logs of a subset of the first group of human testers. The collected results were all found to be acceptable and within the range of our expectations