A Compartmental Model for Traffic Networks and its Dynamical Behavior

We propose a macroscopic traffic network flow model suitable for analysis as a dynamical system, and we qualitatively analyze equilibrium flows as well as convergence. Flows at a junction are determined by downstream supply of capacity as well as upstream demand of traffic wishing to flow through the junction. This approach is rooted in the celebrated Cell Transmission Model for freeway traffic flow. Unlike related results which rely on certain system cooperativity properties, our model generally does not possess these properties. We show that the lack of cooperativity is in fact a useful feature that allows traffic control methods, such as ramp metering, to be effective. Finally, we leverage the results of the paper to develop a linear program for optimal ramp metering

On resilient control of dynamical flow networks

Resilience has become a key aspect in the design of contemporary infrastructure networks. This comes as a result of ever-increasing loads, limited physical capacity, and fast-growing levels of interconnectedness and complexity due to the recent technological advancements. The problem has motivated a considerable amount of research within the last few years, particularly focused on the dynamical aspects of network flows, complementing more classical static network flow optimization approaches. In this tutorial paper, a class of single-commodity first-order models of dynamical flow networks is considered. A few results recently appeared in the literature and dealing with stability and robustness of dynamical flow networks are gathered and originally presented in a unified framework. In particular, (differential) stability properties of monotone dynamical flow networks are treated in some detail, and the notion of margin of resilience is introduced as a quantitative measure of their robustness. While emphasizing methodological aspects -- including structural properties, such as monotonicity, that enable tractability and scalability -- over the specific applications, connections to well-established road traffic flow models are made.Comment: accepted for publication in Annual Reviews in Control, 201

Dynamical Systems on Networks: A Tutorial

We give a tutorial for the study of dynamical systems on networks. We focus especially on "simple" situations that are tractable analytically, because they can be very insightful and provide useful springboards for the study of more complicated scenarios. We briefly motivate why examining dynamical systems on networks is interesting and important, and we then give several fascinating examples and discuss some theoretical results. We also briefly discuss dynamical systems on dynamical (i.e., time-dependent) networks, overview software implementations, and give an outlook on the field.Comment: 39 pages, 1 figure, submitted, more examples and discussion than original version, some reorganization and also more pointers to interesting direction

Prediction and predictability of global epidemics: the role of the airline transportation network

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global evolution of emerging disease. We present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete world-wide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: i) We study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; ii) We evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. In order to address these issues we define a set of novel quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure

On resilient control of dynamical flow networks

Resilience has become a key aspect in the design of contemporary infrastructure networks. This comes as a result of ever-increasing loads, limited physical capacity, and fast-growing levels of interconnectedness and complexity due to the recent technological advancements. The problem has motivated a considerable amount of research within the last few years, particularly focused on the dynamical aspects of network flows, complementing more classical static network flow optimization approaches.In this tutorial paper, a class of single-commodity first-order models of dynamical flow networks is considered. A few results recently appeared in the literature and dealing with stability and robustness of dynamical flow networks are gathered and originally presented in a unified framework. In particular, (differential) stability properties of monotone dynamical flow networks are treated in some detail, and the notion of margin of resilience is introduced as a quantitative measure of their robustness. While emphasizing methodological aspects -including structural properties, such as monotonicity, that enable tractability and scalability- over the specific applications, connections to well-established road traffic flow models are made

Some Remarks about the Complexity of Epidemics Management

Recent outbreaks of Ebola, H1N1 and other infectious diseases have shown that the assumptions underlying the established theory of epidemics management are too idealistic. For an improvement of procedures and organizations involved in fighting epidemics, extended models of epidemics management are required. The necessary extensions consist in a representation of the management loop and the potential frictions influencing the loop. The effects of the non-deterministic frictions can be taken into account by including the measures of robustness and risk in the assessment of management options. Thus, besides of the increased structural complexity resulting from the model extensions, the computational complexity of the task of epidemics management - interpreted as an optimization problem - is increased as well. This is a serious obstacle for analyzing the model and may require an additional pre-processing enabling a simplification of the analysis process. The paper closes with an outlook discussing some forthcoming problems