Impact assessment of autonomous DRT systems

The market entrance of shared autonomous vehicles (SAV) may have disruptive effects on current transport systems and may lead to their total transformation. For many small and medium-sized cities, a full replacement of public transport services by these systems seems to be possible. For a transport system operator, such a system requires a bigger fleet of vehicles than before, however, vehicles are less expensive and fewer staff is needed for the actual operation. In this paper, we are using a simulation-based approach to evaluate the service quality and operating cost of a demand responsive transit (DRT) system for the city of Cottbus (100 000 inhabitants), Germany. The simulation model used is based on an existing MATSim model of the region that depicts a typical work day. Results suggest, that the current public transport system may be replaced by a system of 300 to 400 DRT vehicles, depending on their operational mode. Compared to previous, schedule based public transport, passengers do not need to transfer, and their overall travel times may be reduced significantly. Results for the cost comparison are preliminary, but results suggest that an autonomous DRT system is not necessarily more expensive than the current public transport system

Under which conditions is carrier cooperation possible? A case study in a Seville marketplace

The high volume of traffic originates two well-known problems in many cities: congestion and pollution. In recent years, a social phenomenon is emerging cooperation. This work is aimed at evaluating the circumstances under which transport cooperation is possible between different stakeholders operating in the same geographical area. To this end, a double survey process was conducted in a marketplace situated in the Seville City (Spain) centre. The first survey was designed to know the characteristics of the retailers and their preferences with respect to cooperation and regulations. A relational analysis between retailer features and their willingness to cooperate was carried out. After analysing the motivations for non-cooperation, a mixed proposal was designed and surveyed. Although the research was limited to a marketplace, the relevant data gathered from this double survey process highlights some implications: (a) the importance of personal relations in retailer cooperation; (b) a high volume of freight and the use of vans as on-street warehouses appear as significant motivations for non-cooperation; (c) forcing changes in the statu quo encourages cooperation.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España) TEC2013-47286-C3-3-

“A little less conversation, a little more action please” - Triggering greener travel behaviour in a music festival context: The case of Fuchsbau Festival, Germany

With growing awareness about their environmental impact, music festivals have increased their efforts to become greener since the 2000s. In line with this trend, the German Fuchsbau Festival developed a transport plan, taking into account that up to 80.0% of a festival’s emissions are produced through audience travel. Aiming at triggering a greener travel behaviour among its visitors, four measures were defined: the introduction of a parking fee, the promotion of car-pooling, the provision of free shuttle buses from the closest train station to the festival site, and the offer of coaches departing from three German cities. In this context, this thesis investigated two related topics: the potential of the transport plan to achieve its aim, and the perception the transport plan received. As the author was involved in the development, implementation and assessment of the transport plan, the thesis is considered an action research project. Following a mixed methods approach, both quantitative and qualitative data was collected. In an online survey and thirteen semi-structured interviews, members of the audience were asked about their travel preferences, habits and their perception of the described transport plan. The data was analysed utilising an adjusted Theory of Consumption Values. It was observed, that visitors attached particular importance to a trip’s functional and emotional aspects, including ‘price’, ‘time’, ‘storage room’, and ‘fun’. The means of transport promoted through the transport plan have been found to serve these needs to different extents. It is therefore concluded that the transport plan has the potential to trigger a greener travel behaviour. Yet, challenges remain in making green means of transport accessible to a wider audience. Furthermore, it was found that the transport plan was perceived well. This offers the festival’s organisational team room to manoeuvre should they wish to continue enhancing their sustainability-related efforts. Further research is suggested to test the thesis’ generalisability, and to develop supplementary suggestions which can help to improve the festival’s transport plan

- Case of next-generation transportation market -

학위논문 (박사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2020. 8. 이종수.The present dissertation aims to provide insights into the application of different artificial neural network models in the analysis of consumer choice regarding next-generation transportation services (NGT). It categorizes consumers decisions regarding the adoption of new services according to Deweys buyer decision process and then analyzes these decisions using a variety of different methods. In particular, various artificial neural network (ANN) models are applied to predict consumers intentions. Also, the dissertation proposes an attention-based ANN model that identifies the key features that affect consumers choices. Consumers preferences for different types of NGT services are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The analyzed consumer preferences are utilized to forecast demand for NGT services, evaluate government policies within the transportation market, and provide evidence regarding the social conflicts among traditional and new transportation services. The dissertation uses the Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) model to analyze consumers decisions regarding the use of different transportation modes. It also utilizes this MDCEV model analysis to estimate the effect of NGT services on consumers travel mode selection behavior and the environmental effects of the transportation sector. Finally, the findings of the dissertations analyses are combined to generate marketing and policy insights that will promote NGT services in Korea.본 연구는 기계학습 기반의 인공지능망과 기존의 통계적 마케팅 선택모형을 통합적으로 활용하여 제품 및 서비스 수용 이론으로 정의된 소비자들의 제품 수용 행위를 분석하였다. 기존의 제품 수용 이론들은 소비자들의 선택에 끼치는 영향을 단계별로 정의하였지만, 대부분의 이론은 제품 특성이 소비자 선택에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 보다는 소비자들의 의향, 제품의 대한 의견, 지각 수준과 소비자 선택의 관계 분석에 집중하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 소비자의 제품 수용 의향, 대안 평가 그리고 제품 및 사용량 선택을 포함하여 더욱 포괄적인 측면에서 소비자 제품 수용 행위를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 소비자의 제품 수용 관련 선택을 총 세 단계로 분류하였다. 첫 번째는 소비자의 제품 사용 의향을 결정하는 단계, 두 번째는 제품들의 대안을 평가하는 단계, 세 번째는 제품의 사용량을 선택하는 단계로, 각 단계를 분석하기 위해서 본 연구는 인공지능망과 통계적 마케팅 선택모형을 활용하였다. 인공지능망은 예측과 분류하는 작업에서 월등한 성능을 가진 모형으로 소비자들의 제품 수용 의향을 예측하고, 의향 선택에 영향을 주는 주요 변수들을 식별하는 데 활용되었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 주요 변수 식별을 위한 인공지능망은 기존의 변수 선택 기법 보다 모형 추정 적합도 측면에서 높은 성능을 보였다. 본 모형은 향후 빅데이터와 같이 많은 양의 소비자 관련 데이터를 처리하는데 활용될 가능성이 클 뿐만 아니라, 기존의 설문 설계 기법을 개선하는데 용이한 방법론으로 판단된다. 소비자 선호를 기반으로 한 대안 평가 및 사용량을 분석하기 위해서 통계적 선택 모형 중 계층적 베이지안 모형과 혼합 MDCEV 모형을 활용하였다. 계층적 베이지안 모형은개별적인 소비자 선호를 추정할 수 있는 장점이 있고, 혼합 MDCEV 모형의 경우 소비자들의 선호를 기반하여 선택된 대안들로 다양한 포트폴리오를 구성할 수 있고, 각 대안에 대한 사용량을 분석할 수 있다. 제안된 모형들의 실증 연구를 위해 차세대 자동차 수송 서비스에 대한 소비자들의 사용 의향, 서비스 대안에 대한 선호, 수송 서비스별 사용량을 분석하였다. 실증 연구에서는 차세대 자동차 수송 서비스를 수용하기까지 소비자들이 경험하는 단계별 선택 상황을 반영하였으며, 각 단계에서 도출된 결과를 통해 향후 차세대 자동차 수송 서비스의 성장 가능성과 소비자들의 이동 행위 변화에 대해 예측하였다. 본 연구를 통해 인공지능망이 소비자 관련 연구에서 유용하게 활용될 수 있음을 보였으며, 인공지능망과 통계적 마케팅 선택모형이 결합될 경우 소비자들의 제품 선택 행위뿐만 아니라, 제품 선택 의사결정 과정 전반에 걸쳐 소비자 선호를 포괄적으로 분석할 수 있음을 확인하였다.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research Background 1 1.2 Research Objective 7 1.3 Research Outline 12 Chapter 2. Literature Review 14 2.1 Product and Technology Diffusion Theory 14 2.1.1. Extension of Adoption Models 19 2.2 Artificial Neural Network 22 2.2.1 General Component of the Artificial Neural Network 22 2.2.2 Activation Functions of Artificial Neural Network 26 2.3 Modeling Consumer Choice: Discrete Choice Model 32 2.3.1 Multinomial Logit Model 32 2.3.2 Mixed Logit Model 34 2.3.3 Latent Class Model 37 2.4 Modeling Consumer Heuristics in Discrete Choice Model 39 2.4.1 Consumer Decision Rule in Discrete Choice Model: Compensatory and Non-Compensatory Models 39 2.4.2 Choice Set Formation Behaviors: Semi-Compensatory Models 42 2.4.3 Modeling Consumer Usage: MDCEV Model 50 2.5 Difference between Artificial Neural Network and Choice Modeling 53 2.6 Limitations of Previous Studies and Research Motivation 58 Chapter 3. Methodology 63 3.1 Artificial Neural Network Models for Prediction 63 3.1.1 Multiple Perceptron Model 63 3.1.2 Convolutional Neural Network 69 3.1.3 Bayesian Neural Network 72 3.2 Feature Identification Model through Attention 77 3.3 Hierarchical Bayesian Model 83 3.4 Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value Model 86 Chapter 4. Empirical Analysis: Consumer Preference and Selection of Transportation Mode 98 4.1 Empirical Analysis Framework 98 4.2 Data 101 4.2.1 Overview of the Survey 101 4.3 Empirical Study I: Consumer Intention to New Type of Transportation 110 4.3.1 Research Motivation and Goal 110 4.3.2 Data and Model Setup 114 4.3.3 Result and Discussion 123 4.4 Empirical Study II: Consumer Choice and Preference for New Types of Transportation 142 4.4.1 Research Motivation and Goal 142 4.4.2 Data and Model Setup 144 4.4.3 Result and Discussion 149 4.5 Empirical Study III: Impact of New Transportation Mode on Consumers Travel Behavior 163 4.5.1 Research Motivation and Goal 163 4.5.2 Data and Model Setup 164 4.5.3 Result and Discussion 166 Chapter 5. Discussion 182 Bibliography 187 Appendix: Survey used in the analysis 209 Abstract (Korean) 241Docto

Contributions to sustainable urban transport : decision support for alternative mobility and logistics concepts

Increasing transport activities in cities are a substantial driver for congestion and pollution, influencing urban populations’ health and quality of life. These effects are consequences of ongoing urbanization in combination with rising individual demand for mobility, goods, and services. With the goal of increased environmental sustainability in urban areas, city authorities and politics aim for reduced traffic and minimized transport emissions. To support more efficient and sustainable urban transport, this cumulative dissertation focuses on alternative transport concepts. For this purpose, scientific methods and models of the interdisciplinary information systems domain combined with elements of operations research, transportation, and logistics are developed and investigated in multiple research contributions. Different transport concepts are examined in terms of optimization and acceptance to provide decision support for relevant stakeholders. In more detail, the overarching topic of urban transport in this dissertation is divided into the complexes urban mobility (part A) in terms of passenger transport and urban logistics (part B) with a focus on the delivery of goods and services. Within part A, approaches to carsharing optimization are presented at various planning levels. Furthermore, the user acceptance of ridepooling is investigated. Part B outlines several optimization models for alternative urban parcel and e-grocery delivery concepts by proposing different network structures and transport vehicles. Conducted surveys on intentional use of urban logistics concepts give valuable hints to providers and decision makers. The introduced approaches with their corresponding results provide target-oriented support to facilitate decision making based on quantitative data. Due to the continuous growth of urban transport, the relevance of decision support in this regard, but also the understanding of the key drivers for people to use certain services will further increase in the future. By providing decision support for urban mobility as well as urban logistics concepts, this dissertation contributes to enhanced economic, social, and environmental sustainability in urban areas

Ridepooling and public bus services: A comparative case-study

This case-study aims at a comparison of the service quality of time-tabled buses as compared to on-demand ridepooling cabs in the late evening hours in the city of Wuppertal, Germany. To evaluate the service quality of ridepooling as compared to bus services, and to simulate bus rides during the evening hours, transport requests are generated using a predictive simulation. To this end, a framework in the programming language R is created, which automatically combines generalized linear models for count regression to model the demand at each bus stop. Furthermore, we use classification models for the prediction of trip destinations. To solve the resulting dynamic dial-a-ride problem, a rolling-horizon algorithm based on the iterative solution of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Models (MILP) is used. A feasible-path heuristic is used to enhance the performance of the algorithm in presence of high request densities. This allows an estimation of the number of cabs needed depending on the weekday to realize the same or a better general service quality as the bus system

The experience of passenger transport start-ups in greater Cairo: An analysis

This research explores start-ups that provide passenger transport services in Cairo, Egypt. It studies the various factors that affect these start-ups operations and lead to their survival or closure. It adopts a qualitative approach depending on both primary and secondary data, in-depth interviews conducted with different stakeholders with different roles, and content analysis. The findings cover a list of external and internal best practices that increases the probability of a transportation start-up\u27s survival. The researcher recommends as well some means of Public Private Partnership that can be implemented in the transportation domain in Cairo, Egypt that might support these start-up\u27s operations. The research enables the start-ups and the public sector to better understand the possible impacts of liaising with each other to reach a win-win situation for the sake of both the start-ups and the public sector, where the start-ups would operate the business smoothly and at the same time reduce the burden on the public sector as a public transport provider, thus lead to more effective operations