A Compact Evolutionary Interval-Valued Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System for the Modeling and Prediction of Real-World Financial Applications With Imbalanced Data

The current financial crisis has stressed the need to obtain more accurate prediction models in order to decrease risk when investing money on economic opportunities. In addition, the transparency of the process followed to make the decisions in financial applications is becoming an important issue. Furthermore, there is a need to handle real-world imbalanced financial datasets without using sampling techniques that might introduce noise in the used data. In this paper, we present a compact evolutionary interval-valued fuzzy rule-based classification system, which is based on interval-valued fuzzy rule-based classification system with tuning and rule selection (IVTURS FA RC-HD ) for the modeling and prediction of real-world financial applications. This proposed system allows obtaining good prediction accuracies using a small set of short fuzzy rules implying a high degree of interpretability of the generated linguistic model. Furthermore, the proposed system deals with the financial imbalanced datasets with no need for any preprocessing or sampling method and, thus, avoiding the accidental introduction of noise in the data used in the learning process. The system is also provided with a mechanism to handle examples that are not covered by any fuzzy rule in the generated rule base. To test the quality of our proposal, we will present an experimental study including 11 real-world financial datasets. We will show that the proposed system outperforms the original C4.5 decision tree, type-1, and interval-valued fuzzy counterparts that use the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to preprocess data and the original FURIA, which is a fuzzy approximative classifier. Furthermore, the proposed method enhances the results achieved by the cost-sensitive C4.5, and it gives competitive results when compared with FURIA using SMOTE, while our proposal avoids preprocessing techniques, and it provides interpretable models that allow obtaining more accurate results

A Compact Evolutionary Interval-Valued Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System for the Modeling and Prediction of Real-World Financial Applications with Imbalanced Data

The current financial crisis has stressed the need of obtaining more accurate prediction models in order to decrease the risk when investing money on economic opportunities. In addition, the transparency of the process followed to make the decisions in financial applications is becoming an important issue. Furthermore, there is a need to handle the real-world imbalanced financial data sets without using sampling techniques which might introduce noise in the used data. In this paper, we present a compact evolutionary interval-valued fuzzy rule-based classification system, which is based on IVTURSFARC-HD (Interval-Valued fuzzy rulebased classification system with TUning and Rule Selection) [22]), for the modeling and prediction of real-world financial applications. This proposed system allows obtaining good predictions accuracies using a small set of short fuzzy rules implying a high degree of interpretability of the generated linguistic model. Furthermore, the proposed system deals with the financial imbalanced datasets with no need for any preprocessing or sampling method and thus avoiding the accidental introduction of noise in the data used in the learning process. The system is also provided with a mechanism to handle examples that are not covered by any fuzzy rule in the generated rule base. To test the quality of our proposal, we will present an experimental study including eleven realworld financial datasets. We will show that the proposed system outperforms the original C4.5 decision tree, type-1 and interval-valued fuzzy counterparts which use the SMOTE sampling technique to preprocess data and the original FURIA, which is a fuzzy approximative classifier. Furthermore, the proposed method enhances the results achieved by the cost sensitive C4.5 and it gives competitive results when compared with FURIA using SMOTE, while our proposal avoids pre-processing techniques and it provides interpretable models that allow obtaining more accurate results.Spanish Government TIN2011-28488 TIN2013-40765-

An academic review: applications of data mining techniques in finance industry

With the development of Internet techniques, data volumes are doubling every two years, faster than predicted by Moore’s Law. Big Data Analytics becomes particularly important for enterprise business. Modern computational technologies will provide effective tools to help understand hugely accumulated data and leverage this information to get insights into the finance industry. In order to get actionable insights into the business, data has become most valuable asset of financial organisations, as there are no physical products in finance industry to manufacture. This is where data mining techniques come to their rescue by allowing access to the right information at the right time. These techniques are used by the finance industry in various areas such as fraud detection, intelligent forecasting, credit rating, loan management, customer profiling, money laundering, marketing and prediction of price movements to name a few. This work aims to survey the research on data mining techniques applied to the finance industry from 2010 to 2015.The review finds that Stock prediction and Credit rating have received most attention of researchers, compared to Loan prediction, Money Laundering and Time Series prediction. Due to the dynamics, uncertainty and variety of data, nonlinear mapping techniques have been deeply studied than linear techniques. Also it has been proved that hybrid methods are more accurate in prediction, closely followed by Neural Network technique. This survey could provide a clue of applications of data mining techniques for finance industry, and a summary of methodologies for researchers in this area. Especially, it could provide a good vision of Data Mining Techniques in computational finance for beginners who want to work in the field of computational finance

Automatic generation of fuzzy classification rules using granulation-based adaptive clustering

A central problem of fuzzy modelling is the generation of fuzzy rules that fit the data to the highest possible extent. In this study, we present a method for automatic generation of fuzzy rules from data. The main advantage of the proposed method is its ability to perform data clustering without the requirement of predefining any parameters including number of clusters. The proposed method creates data clusters at different levels of granulation and selects the best clustering results based on some measures. The proposed method involves merging clusters into new clusters that have a coarser granulation. To evaluate performance of the proposed method, three different datasets are used to compare performance of the proposed method to other classifiers: SVM classifier, FCM fuzzy classifier, subtractive clustering fuzzy classifier. Results show that the proposed method has better classification results than other classifiers for all the datasets used

Multiobjective Evolutionary Optimization of Type-2 Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems for Financial Data Classification

Classification techniques are becoming essential in the financial world for reducing risks and possible disasters. Managers are interested in not only high accuracy, but in interpretability and transparency as well. It is widely accepted now that the comprehension of how inputs and outputs are related to each other is crucial for taking operative and strategic decisions. Furthermore, inputs are often affected by contextual factors and characterized by a high level of uncertainty. In addition, financial data are usually highly skewed toward the majority class. With the aim of achieving high accuracies, preserving the interpretability, and managing uncertain and unbalanced data, this paper presents a novel method to deal with financial data classification by adopting type-2 fuzzy rule-based classifiers (FRBCs) generated from data by a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA). The classifiers employ an approach, denoted as scaled dominance, for defining rule weights in such a way to help minority classes to be correctly classified. In particular, we have extended PAES-RCS, an MOEA-based approach to learn concurrently the rule and data bases of FRBCs, for managing both interval type-2 fuzzy sets and unbalanced datasets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that generates type-2 FRBCs by concurrently maximizing accuracy and minimizing the number of rules and the rule length with the objective of producing interpretable models of real-world skewed and incomplete financial datasets. The rule bases are generated by exploiting a rule and condition selection (RCS) approach, which selects a reduced number of rules from a heuristically generated rule base and a reduced number of conditions for each selected rule during the evolutionary process. The weight associated with each rule is scaled by the scaled dominance approach on the fuzzy frequency of the output class, in order to give a higher weight to the minority class. As regards the data base learning, the membership function parameters of the interval type-2 fuzzy sets used in the rules are learned concurrently to the application of RCS. Unbalanced datasets are managed by using, in addition to complexity, selectivity and specificity as objectives of the MOEA rather than only the classification rate. We tested our approach, named IT2-PAES-RCS, on 11 financial datasets and compared our results with the ones obtained by the original PAES-RCS with three objectives and with and without scaled dominance, the FRBCs, fuzzy association rule-based classification model for high-dimensional dataset (FARC-HD) and fuzzy unordered rules induction algorithm (FURIA), the classical C4.5 decision tree algorithm, and its cost-sensitive version. Using nonparametric statistical tests, we will show that IT2-PAES-RCS generates FRBCs with, on average, accuracy statistically comparable with and complexity lower than the ones generated by the two versions of the original PAES-RCS. Further, the FRBCs generated by FARC-HD and FURIA and the decision trees computed by C4.5 and its cost-sensitive version, despite the highest complexity, result to be less accurate than the FRBCs generated by IT2-PAES-RCS. Finally, we will highlight how these FRBCs are easily interpretable by showing and discussing one of them

Literature Review of the Recent Trends and Applications in various Fuzzy Rule based systems

Fuzzy rule based systems (FRBSs) is a rule-based system which uses linguistic fuzzy variables as antecedents and consequent to represent human understandable knowledge. They have been applied to various applications and areas throughout the soft computing literature. However, FRBSs suffers from many drawbacks such as uncertainty representation, high number of rules, interpretability loss, high computational time for learning etc. To overcome these issues with FRBSs, there exists many extensions of FRBSs. This paper presents an overview and literature review of recent trends on various types and prominent areas of fuzzy systems (FRBSs) namely genetic fuzzy system (GFS), hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS), neuro fuzzy system (NFS), evolving fuzzy system (eFS), FRBSs for big data, FRBSs for imbalanced data, interpretability in FRBSs and FRBSs which use cluster centroids as fuzzy rules. The review is for years 2010-2021. This paper also highlights important contributions, publication statistics and current trends in the field. The paper also addresses several open research areas which need further attention from the FRBSs research community.Comment: 49 pages, Accepted for publication in ijf

Automatic synthesis of fuzzy systems: An evolutionary overview with a genetic programming perspective

Studies in Evolutionary Fuzzy Systems (EFSs) began in the 90s and have experienced a fast development since then, with applications to areas such as pattern recognition, curve‐fitting and regression, forecasting and control. An EFS results from the combination of a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). This relationship can be established for multiple purposes: fine‐tuning of FIS's parameters, selection of fuzzy rules, learning a rule base or membership functions from scratch, and so forth. Each facet of this relationship creates a strand in the literature, as membership function fine‐tuning, fuzzy rule‐based learning, and so forth and the purpose here is to outline some of what has been done in each aspect. Special focus is given to Genetic Programming‐based EFSs by providing a taxonomy of the main architectures available, as well as by pointing out the gaps that still prevail in the literature. The concluding remarks address some further topics of current research and trends, such as interpretability analysis, multiobjective optimization, and synthesis of a FIS through Evolving methods

Toward Human-Understandable, Explainable AI

Recent increases in computing power, coupled with rapid growth in the availability and quantity of data have rekindled our interest in the theory and applications of artificial intelligence (AI). However, for AI to be confidently rolled out by industries and governments, users want greater transparency through explainable AI (XAI) systems. The author introduces XAI concepts, and gives an overview of areas in need of further exploration-such as type-2 fuzzy logic systems-to ensure such systems can be fully understood and analyzed by the lay user

An evolutionary fuzzy system to support the replacement policy in water supply networks: The ranking of pipes according to their failure risk

Article number 107731In this study, an evolutionary fuzzy system is proposed to predict unexpected pipe failures in water supply networks. The system seeks to underpin the decisions of management companies regarding the maintenance and replacement plans of pipes. On the one hand, fuzzy logic provides high degrees of interpretability over other black box models, which is requested in engineering application where decisions have social consequences. On the other hand, the genetic algorithm helps to optimize the parameters that govern the model, specifically, for two purposes: (i) the selection of variables; and (ii) the optimization of membership functions. Data from a real water supply network are used to evaluate the accuracy of the developed system. Several graphs that depict the ranking of pipes according to their risk of failure against the network length to be replaced support the choice of the most successful model. In fact, results demonstrate that the annual replacement of 6.75% of the network length makes it possible to prevent 41.14% of unexpected pipe failuresEm