A systematic review of software development cost estimation studies

This paper aims to provide a basis for the improvement of software estimation research through a systematic review of previous work. The review identifies 304 software cost estimation papers in 76 journals and classifies the papers according to research topic, estimation approach, research approach, study context and data set. A web-based library of these cost estimation papers is provided to ease the identification of relevant estimation research results. The review results combined with other knowledge provide support for recommendations for future software cost estimation research, including: 1) Increase the breadth of the search for relevant studies, 2) Search manually for relevant papers within a carefully selected set of journals when completeness is essential, 3) Conduct more studies on estimation methods commonly used by the software industry, and, 4) Increase the awareness of how properties of the data sets impact the results when evaluating estimation methods

Empirical research on Software Effort Estimation Accuracy

To improve the software development process is named by both the European Union and the United States government as an important task for society. The constant problem with effort overruns and estimation inaccuracy is a main part of the software development problem. Empirical research on software effort estimation is a key part of the continuing effort by researchers and practitioners to improve the way in which software development projects are carried out. As part of this effort, a study on eighteen of the latest projects at a Norwegian software consultancy was done. The study was done by interviewing the project managers responsible for the projects, having them provide key project data, and their assessments of different project properties related to effort estimation. The study focused on answering research questions related to: • The effect the contractor-customer relationship and customer properties have on estimation accuracy • The effect utilizing experience data has on estimation accuracy • The role of estimation accuracy when assessing software project success The analysis of the collected empirical data showed that reduced effort overruns was associated with increased contact frequency with the customer and contracts that share the risk between contractor and customer. Utilization of experience data, and the use of checklists, was also found to have a positive impact on estimation accuracy. There was not found any strong correlation between project managers’ project success assessment and estimation accuracy, indicating that estimation accuracy and project manager success assessment contribute with two different, but important viewpoints when software project success is to be assessed. In addition to the empirical study and its results, the thesis presents a review of existing group combination techniques for software effort estimation. The review was motivated by recent studies that have suggested that to do software estimation as a group is beneficial. The review presents techniques that vary largely as to how they structure the interaction among the group members, and how their opinions are aggregated. A thorough discussion on the argumentation behind the techniques, and the consequences they have is given in the review. The empirical data collected during the work with this thesis suggests different ways in which software contractors could improve their estimation ability and reduce their effort overruns. The conclusions of this thesis is, that to increase estimation accuracy, software contractors should: (i) involve the customer, and nurture the customer relationship, (ii) add some repeatable structure to the estimation process, but be careful not to add too much structure, (iii) gather and utilize experience data in the estimation process and (iv) evaluate projects when they are done. In doing the evaluation both objective data on effort, schedule and functionality compliance and subjective assessments of project success from key stakeholders, as customer, user, project manager, developers and management should be gathered

Hidden inefficiency: Strategic inflation of project schedules

Establishing realistic project plans and completing the resulting business projects on schedule is crucial for organizations striving to effectively utilize their resources. However, incentivizing on-time project delivery may introduce moral hazard, as people may respond to estimation accuracy incentives by strategically inflating project duration estimates and subsequently prolonging the project execution. While the project is delivered on time, the resources are underutilized. We conjecture that these perverse effects can be mitigated by introducing incentives to complete the project as soon as possible (speed incentives) in addition to the schedule accuracy incentives. We conduct a diagnostic test of the effect of accuracy and speed incentives on the process of project estimation and delivery. Our study presents direct empirical evidence that the incentive structure rewarding solely the estimation accuracy can result in hidden inefficiency due to inflated estimates and deliberately prolonged project execution. However, when speed incentives are implemented alongside estimation accuracy incentives, the estimates are significantly lower and the project is completed more quickly, without compromising the schedule accuracy. Aligning the objectives of a project owner with those of planners, by incentivizing the planners for both estimation accuracy and quick project completion, can therefore foster more compressed but still accurate and reliable project schedules and accelerated project delivery. In summary, our study contributes to the economic analysis of incentive structures in project management by identifying a hidden inefficiency that could be present in projects delivered “on time” and by pointing out a mechanism that mitigates the risk of moral hazard

A new estimation methodology for reusable component-based software development projects

Bibliograhy: leaves 118-121.Estimating the duration of software development projects is a difficult task. There are many factors that can derail software projects. However, estimation forms the fundamental part of planning and costing any project and is therefore very necessary. While several formal estimation methodologies exist, they all exhibit weaknesses in one form or another. The most established methodologies are based on early software development methods and it is questionable as to whether they can still address more modern development methods such as reusable component-based programming. Some researchers believe not and have proposed new methodologies that attempt to achieve this. Thus what is needed is a methodology that takes into account modern component-based development practices and, as a result, provides acceptable accuracy for the software organisation. This dissertation attempts to uniquely satisfy both of these requirements

Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life

time predictions; human judgement; overoptimism; uncertainty; project managemen

Parametric software project estimating: An analysis of current practice

As society and the world economy moves into the second millennium. the service industries involving knowledge workers will continue to increase. Software is the enabling technology that is driving the knowledge industry. As the development of software is mostly a design process, where new artefacts are conceived and built, the prediction of outcomes in the process is fraught with difficulties. Software project estimating is one of the essential Software Engineering techniques that will enable the rationalisation of decision-making regarding software development. Estimates that are more accurate will increase the probability of success and lower the risk. This thesis analyses the current software project estimating techniques available to practitioners and examines current practice in the estimating of software projects within the Western Australian industry. The principal techniques examined are Function Point Analysis and COCOMO and these are shown to be flawed in their construction. The practices adopted by expert and experienced practitioners are analysed and it is shown that the formal algorithmic models are not widely used. It is also shown that estimates are required in a project\u27s lifecycle before the full requirements are known. The Western Australian practices are also compared to similar analyses conducted in other countries

Time Predictions

This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life

Time Predictions: Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life

time predictions; human judgement; overoptimism; uncertainty; project managemen